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(Text of Tweet) Elon Musk on Cybertruck and if Tesla will lose potential truck market share by launching later than rivals: No; We have more orders for Cybertruck than we could possibly fulfill for the first 3 years of production.



What surprises me about this Tweet Is the fact that he says “3 years”. Given a production rate of 250k vehicles/ year you would think he would say 5 years here. Perhaps a hint that they are targeting far more than the 250k units he’s said publicly. Something I’ve suspected for a while.
 

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(Text of Tweet) Elon Musk on Cybertruck and if Tesla will lose potential truck market share by launching later than rivals: No; We have more orders for Cybertruck than we could possibly fulfill for the first 3 years of production.

What surprises me about this Tweet Is the fact that he says “3 years”. Given a production rate of 250k vehicles/ year you would think he would say 5 years here. Perhaps a hint that they are targeting far more than the 250k units he’s said publicly. Something I’ve suspected for a while.
Or maybe he (EM) thinks the conversion rate of reservation holder to purchaser will be lower then what they saw with their previous reservations. I know there was a poll asking that question here a while back. I don't remember what our collective majority thought the conversation rate would be, but I know I was on the low end of the guestimate. I think it will be about 1/3...maybe 1/2.

But I also don't think they will be producing 250k CTs/Yr for quite a while. Not before 2025 in my guess. So to your point, if they do start production the end of this year. Then begin ramping up next year to 100k and then 150k in 24' and 200k in 25'...even with only a 50% conversion rate they have about 5 years worth of reservations.
 


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Text of Tweet) Elon Musk on Cybertruck and if Tesla will lose potential truck market share by launching later than rivals: No; We have more orders for Cybertruck than we could possibly fulfill for the first 3 years of production.
Nothing new. This is already well-known by anyone following Tesla Cybertruck.
 
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Or maybe he (EM) thinks the conversion rate of reservation holder to purchaser will be lower then what they saw with their previous reservations. I know there was a poll asking that question here a while back. I don't remember what our collective majority thought the conversation rate would be, but I know I was on the low end of the guestimate. I think it will be about 1/3...maybe 1/2.

But I also don't think they will be producing 250k CTs/Yr for quite a while. Not before 2025 in my guess. So to your point, if they do start production the end of this year. Then begin ramping up next year to 100k and then 150k in 24' and 200k in 25'...even with only a 50% conversion rate they have about 5 years worth of reservations.
Conversion rate likely depends 99% on how close to launch specs the final is. If they nail the spirit of the launch, conversion rate should be well above 50%. If they drop the brief, then who knows.

As for volume. I’m not sure where you get your numbers here. That is not the way Tesla production has ramped for any other vehicle. Why do you think the Cybertruck will lag so far behind? It was designed to be manufactured at scale.

If there is a strong chance they will fail to hit 250k units/ year, then Musk’s comment is even weirder regardless of the conversion rate.
 

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I ordered my CT the reveal weekend with at the time the tri motor with FSD and solar. I'll convert that to the 4 motor or whatever is the first top of the line short of plaid. I'll pay the premium for 4 motor but I have no need for the plaid version. I'm old enough now that I want the truck to be my last vehicle so I have no interest in selling it. I am curious with how huge the demand is what they will sell for on the open market. I can see many of the reservation holders who decide they can't justify a 100k truck to go ahead and get it just to turn it for more. It leads me to think the reservation percentage who buy will be much higher than specultation.
 

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...As for volume. I’m not sure where you get your numbers here. That is not the way Tesla production has ramped for any other vehicle. Why do you think the Cybertruck will lag so far behind? It was designed to be manufactured at scale.
Well, they've had trouble with the Model X and S this last year, the two models still have really long build lags for standard models.

Not that I think that, but I just thought it up as a reason.

-Crissa
 


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Despite Tesla being more computer company than car company, physics is the rubble blocking its progress(wrt: Li, FePO, cathode and sustainable runway). EM returned again and again to the difficulty, nigh improbability of Tesla success being linear, logarithmic or infallible to new discovery good and bad.

Tesla is leaning out over its skis IOW.
 

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Conversion rate likely depends 99% on how close to launch specs the final is. If they nail the spirit of the launch, conversion rate should be well above 50%. If they drop the brief, then who knows.
Maybe, but I just think $100 deposit is easy. Actually buying the $40k - $70k truck is harder. Plus lots of the multi-reservation holders will only buy 1.

As for volume. I’m not sure where you get your numbers here. That is not the way Tesla production has ramped for any other vehicle. Why do you think the Cybertruck will lag so far behind? It was designed to be manufactured at scale.
If I'm not mistaken, the other vehicles had multiple lines at multiple factories. The CT is being built on 1 line at 1 factory for now. I couldn't find it but I know I read somewhere that the limiting factor to the gigapress was heat. Again, I can't find the source, but I thought I read, each press could put out a max of ~200k casts per year, but no press has done more then ~150k to date. We're assuming the yet to be delivered 8k or 9k press is the press that will be used for the CT and we only know of 1 or 2 of those coming, (1 for the front cast and 1 for the rear cast I believe). I might be completely wrong, but that's why I'm saying it's going to be a while before we see 250k/Yr coming off the line(s). Not even to mention this is the only vehicle they are currently trying to mass produce with an exoskeleton. They don't have multiple factory lines working on this. So I do think the production ramp up will be slower then then other vehicles while they figure it out.

If there is a strong chance they will fail to hit 250k units/ year, then Musk’s comment is even weirder regardless of the conversion rate.
Not if he thinks the production rate is 150k/yr and the conversion rate of 1.5M reservations is actually 1/3. That would make for about 500k purchasers and maybe 450k CT produced in the first 3 years...which is probably still more then the number of Lightnings built by then.
 
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Maybe, but I just think $100 deposit is easy. Actually buying the $40k - $70k truck is harder. Plus lots of the multi-reservation holders will only buy 1.
I honestly don’t get this argument.

Would you drop $100 on something you had no intention of buying? I certainly wouldn’t. Would a million+ people spend $100 on something they have no intention to buy?

Ben F. and I are tight. I wouldn’t part with him for a casual fling.


If I'm not mistaken, the other vehicles had multiple lines at multiple factories. The CT is being built on 1 line at 1 factory for now.
It’s being given the same resources/ floor space as the Texas & Berlin Model Y lines which are scheduled for 500k units/ year.

I couldn't find it but I know I read somewhere that the limiting factor to the gigapress was heat. Again, I can't find the source, but I thought I read, each press could put out a max of ~200k casts per year, but no press has done more then ~150k to date. We're assuming the yet to be delivered 8k or 9k press is the press that will be used for the CT and we only know of 1 or 2 of those coming, (1 for the front cast and 1 for the rear cast I believe). I might be completely wrong, but that's why I'm saying it's going to be a while before we see 250k/Yr coming off the line(s). Not even to mention this is the only vehicle they are currently trying to mass produce with an exoskeleton. They don't have multiple factory lines working on this. So I do think the production ramp up will be slower then then other vehicles while they figure it out.
I know around a year ago Tesla was getting around 150k out of their Gigapresses but I’m not sure that’s still true. Tesla has increased production in Shanghai and Fremont a ton over the past year. Musk has quoted the 250k number multiple times with regards to the Cybertruck. I find it unlikely they miss that.

This won’t affect me too much, my RN is low enough I should see my truck within the first year regardless.

 

 
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