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Ogre

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EvTruck is bad news and is sucking Rivian Ford GM dry.
Rivian is a startup in the auto industry. Tesla is literally the only auto company to reach sustainable profitability in the US in the past 100 years.

Ford has been making EVs seriously for 1.5 years.

Tesla has been seriously making EVs for 20 years.

I find it amusing that as Tesla was starting up everyone talked about how important experience was. Now Tesla has experience and everyone wants to discount the value of experience.

 

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What makes the CT impossible to earn profit? I am not in agreement. Data?
Having invented something without any moving parts from stock metal needing only bending and couple welds to produce, Musk is on-point! Prototypes are easy - production is HARD. As in hard to scale.

Cybertruck with all its proven technology reuse, new castings, screwed and glued robot assembly still might be a HARD. CT is not EM’s first rodeo! I expect his GigaAustin machine impacts positively efficiency, assembly and organization under one-roof which revolutionizes Tesla ability to operate at scale. SO we may be off-platform seeking answers at the vehicle level.

BUT is it Tesla’s F-150 category killer $40k pickup? Can EM‘s Quad CT out compete against hub motors? Can it transforn again into cybervan, Hi-cube delivery and does it scale up? Scale as in class 3-6? How about Tunnel Bus? Tesla can’t sell cars to run in Boring holes forever.

I hope there isn’t a show stopper in Cybertruck. Tesla needs a well sorted platform to leverage. Gen1 might be its mule. Going downscale with Wolverine and smaller will get uber competitive. IF Gen1 Cybertruck achieves B/E in the first five years, expect it’s a platform for the ages. Elon’s Magnum Opus in automation from floor to highway!
 

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I never said they didn't have intentions. They may have intended to save money from the release to the production...but how many people did? Based on what we know about credit card debt in this country, I'd guess very few. And they didn't hand over a Ben Franklin, they ran that same old piece of plastic. The release was Friday or Saturday evening also. Some reservation holders were probably a few beverages into the night when they were watching so they thought, ...get 2 or 3. Others down the line thought they'd reserve 10 for their cyber fleet of FSD cabs. All had good intentions. There is still a lot we don't know about the CT. How many people will fulfill those good intended reservations is just one question.



You say 250k - 500k ramp up in the first three years based on past performance, floor space at the China and German factory and potential production scheduled. I think they can ramp up those factories faster because they are building cars there they have already built at other factories and learned lessons from and continue to learn from. I think building the CT is going to be harder until the new processes are figured out in the first few years, then they will be very efficient. They will get to 250k/yr but I don't think it will be in the first 3 years.
Not in the history of autos has it taken a manufacturer 3 years to ramp up and figure out production. No, Tesla will go from 1 CT produced on the line to 1 per 2 minutes in less than 6 months.
 

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Not in the history of autos has it taken a manufacturer 3 years to ramp up and figure out production. No, Tesla will go from 1 CT produced on the line to 1 per 2 minutes in less than 6 months.
Depends on how you define ramp up. I think going from no land for a factory, to producing 150-200k Model Ys off one line and another 100k CTs off another line in the course of 3 years is pretty damn good. Then ramp up by 50% that 100k to 150k the next year. Still very impressive when everything you're learning about mass producing the CT is pretty much being done on the one line.
Have any of Tesla's individual lines produced 200k vehicles in 12 months yet? I don't think they have and they have multiple lines at multiple factories to learn from. The CT is a new way of doing things. Even if it's designed to be more efficient when building, it's still going to take a while to realize those efficiencies and I still think they will have more full size pure EV trucks on the road then Ford, Chevy, Ram and obviously Rivian in 2025.
 

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@Crissa yes the factories did. But did one line produce 200k vehicles? They built ~906k model 3 and y vehicles combined at Berlin, Freemont and Shanghai combined. Each of those factories I assume has multiple lines.

I'm asking what is the most vehicles to come off one line at one factory; because that's all the CT is going to have a for while. I thought this number was still under 200k. I know I red that somewhere. I have not seen anything that has said one line was producing more then that.
 

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@Crissa yes the factories did. But did one line produce 200k vehicles? They built ~906k model 3 and y vehicles combined at Berlin, Freemont and Shanghai combined. Each of those factories I assume has multiple lines.

I'm asking what is the most vehicles to come off one line at one factory; because that's all the CT is going to have a for while. I thought this number was still under 200k. I know I red that somewhere. I have not seen anything that has said one line was producing more then that.
I'm not sure what you're asking. A Factory is the base unit that Tesla uses. They had up to 3 'lines' at Fremont building Model 3/Y, and build them up and move them around as needed to optimize them. They definitely produced that many cars at each factory last year.

-Crissa
 

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@Crissa I'm asking because I'm catching criticism for saying I don't think the CT is going to ramp production up to 250k vehicles in the first couple years. I'm basing that on the 1 CT line available at 1 factory.

If it takes 3 lines at one factory and I'm assuming at least 1 more line at Shanghai and 1 more at Berlin that's at least 5 lines to produce just over 900k vehicles...or roughly 180k vehicles per line. There's probably at least 2 lines each at Shanghai and Berlin, so that means it averages about 125k vehicles per line. Also the previously stated info I read saying no single press had previously output more then 170k.

They are not going to go from 0 right to max capability with the 8 ton press. I think we are assuming 1 press for the front and 1 for the rear. Right now we don't know of any 8 ton presses on site. How long will they produce the CT from just the first 2 presses they get? 1 year? 2 years?

I stick with my guess that TESLA produces about 500k CTs in the first 3 years of production. I think that's still really good, given 1 line at 1 factory producing the CT. If we learn more 8 ton presses are being delivered or that they can use their smaller presses to build the CT then I would change my estimate.
 

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@Crissa I'm asking because I'm catching criticism for saying I don't think the CT is going to ramp production up to 250k vehicles in the first couple years. I'm basing that on the 1 CT line available at 1 factory.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_3

250,000 a year is 62,500 a quarter. They almost that on the 6th quarter of Model 3.

For the Model Y, they hit that on the 4th quarter of production in Fremont.

I don't know if they'll be able to ramp Cybertruck in the same time, but... They have the space and resources this time,

-Crissa
 

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@Crissa...yes I know, on multiple lines after years of practice at multiple facilities.
 

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@Crissa...yes I know. Freemont with multiple lines producing the same vehicle(s)...some of which have been been produced for years now. The same vehicle where lessons learned from other factories can also be applied.

 

 

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