Crissa

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@Crissa...yes I know. Freemont with multiple lines producing the same vehicle(s)...some of which have been been produced for years now. The same vehicle where lessons learned from other factories can also be applied.
That's why I named the number of quarters from release. They had never produced so many cars until then.

And that's also why 'lines' is irrelevant - Tesla will make as many as needed.

-Crissa

 

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Lines are not irrelavent. I admit I might be conflating lines with presses. They can only make as many vehicles as the the giga presses will allow. I was assuming 2 presses per "line". I was mistaken before thinking it was one press for the front and one for the back assemblies. From what I just read the presses are only for the rear assembly.

So 2 presses at Freemont and after 1.5 years they are almost at a production rate of 250k/year. That's 125k vehicles per press per year. Can we agree on that?
 

Crissa

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We have no idea how many casting presses will be used or how many they have purchased (heck, we're a bit dubious on how many Y ones have been installed).

-Crissa
 

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@Crissa you should run for office. Why is so hard to take a position?

1 press = 125k to 175k vehicles per year. 2 presses for the same vehicle = 250k - 350k vehicles per year. In either case they will take time to ramp up and those won't be 1st-year numbers.

I just saw the comments in the other thread mentioning what Munro said. He's far more conservative than me.

I'm sticking with max 500k on the road by summer 2025...it'll probably be more like 400k.
 
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Ogre

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2 presses for the same vehicle = 250k - 350k vehicles per year. In either case they will take time to ramp up and those won't be 1st-year numbers.
Based on the fact that Musk said on multiple occasions 250k+ for the Cybertruck, pretty sure there will be 2 presses for the Cybertruck. This is actually why I put production at 250k+.

Musk has also said he expects “volume production” by end of 2023.

What is volume production? Based on previous comments, that is when they are getting near the factory’s rated capacity... which is again 250k.

Hard to fall in love with any specific numbers until they start deliveries. Honestly don’t care once they’ve delivered the first 60k or so myself. Y’all are on your own at that point ;)
 


charliemagpie

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"Musk has also said he expects “volume production” by end of 2023."

He has also said 'Volume Production' is about 5000 units per week.

That sums it up.

I don't think we can use Fremont as a guide to production speed.. it may not be the Giga working slow, but Fremont production having to snake around. It would take more than 10 hrs to build a car in Fremont. Maybe some of those excess Fremont presses have been going elsewhere. (shanghai)
 

Crissa

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@Crissa you should run for office. Why is so hard to take a position?

1 press = 125k to 175k vehicles per year. 2 presses for the same vehicle = 250k - 350k vehicles per year. In either case they will take time to ramp up and those won't be 1st-year numbers.

I just saw the comments in the other thread mentioning what Munro said. He's far more conservative than me.

I'm sticking with max 500k on the road by summer 2025...it'll probably be more like 400k.
Yeah. I am a stickler for being correct. It's often an autism spectrum thing. But it makes me a terrible politician.

Tesla hadn't been using the gigapresses yet when Elon gave the 225k number. I agree with Ogre that's probably the reason for the number being 250k now.

-Crissa
 

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This point drives other manufacturers crazy. “What, your unit is sold BEFORE manufacture?”

No predictions with remaining inventory sales.

Inventory for legacy Dino burners are measured in days on the lot, Tesla days on lot is………ZERO, nothing, zilch, NADA!!!!
 

charliemagpie

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In early days, the estimate was 90 seconds per press.

80 % uptime * 3 shifts = 69,129 seconds operating time per day
Divide by 90 seconds = 768 casts per day

Multiply 768 casts per day times 350 days per year. = 268,000 casts per year.

--------------------------------------

Recently I heard it can do it in 45 seconds... 500,000+ per year. !!!!!! Each

 

 
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