Elon Says Final Cybertruck Design is Now Locked! Updated Production Timeline = Mid-2023

[uff_da]

The model y was actually early. Shanghai ramp was fast. The only new new process is the stainless bending.

Agree the Shanghai ramp was very fast, but COVID shutdowns have very much slowed down Texas and Berlin some.

As for the only new process... I would count all of these and new processes that will take time to scale and perfect at volume:

4680 batteries
armored glass
4 wheel steering
possible drive by wire front steering
payloads much greater than any previous vehicle
vault cover

Volume production of anything is hard.

 

[JayInAZ]

Maybe not a good idea to give competitors a year to copy the CT design.

A year is hardly enough time to copy a design from photos. The CT design is so unique (structural body) that the other manufacturers would have to come up with entirely new designs in order to compete. They won't do that because they're sticking with the conventional body on frame approach, since their factories are tooled in that way.

 

[Crissa]

A year is hardly enough time to copy a design from photos. The CT design is so unique (structural body) that the other manufacturers would have to come up with entirely new designs in order to compete. They won't do that because they're sticking with the conventional body on frame approach, since their factories are tooled in that way.

The Silverado is supposedly a unibody design.

-Crissa

 

[Throwcomputer]

The Silverado is supposedly a unibody design.

-Crissa

It's the poor man's structural pack bolted to the rest of the body. But on the Ultium system, the giga casts on Cybertruck have been reverted back to the old welded multi-part sections the giga casts were designed to replace. So yeah.. love how they claim to have come up with a new body style that is hybrid body on frame and unibody.. when in fact Tesla came up with it in a much better implementation.. they just ripped it. I'm sure they have plans to order their own giga casts in the future and fully adopt the tesla way, branded as the "ulti-body". LOL.

https://www.repairerdrivennews.com/...o-ev-to-be-neither-unibody-nor-body-on-frame/

Also, the Silverado EV is essentially the same drivetrain/battery "B1T" platform as the hummer EV but with a smaller shell covering it.

 

[Tinker71]

Agree the Shanghai ramp was very fast, but COVID shutdowns have very much slowed down Texas and Berlin some.

As for the only new process... I would count all of these and new processes that will take time to scale and perfect at volume:

4680 batteries
armored glass
4 wheel steering
possible drive by wire front steering
payloads much greater than any previous vehicle
vault cover

Volume production of anything is hard.

Correct me if wrong but isn't the glass on most Teslas structural? Isn't this just a marketing gimmick? 4680 are already being produced in scale. Just need to add parallel lines. Integrating the dry electrode might require another learning curve.

Good points in the steering and suspension. Tesla has had challenges with suspension.

I still contend that the folded 3mm ss is the only process that is completely new at this scale.

 

[TyPope]

I have two tri-motor full self driving on order. I really don't expect to ever get them. The one thing we know about Elon is that he does not make his commitments and gets distracted easily. He is just a frontman for the brands, but he has hired smart people. In general, I would also hope that if the Cybertrucks do get built, they do not come out with the fit and finish problems his current vehicles have.

Do you honestly think Tesla announced a vehicle that they will end up not producing? They've already made several prototypes and have even taken reservations. Have they ever taken reservations for a model (not sub model) of car that they then didn't produce?

 

[Ogre]

Do you honestly think Tesla announced a vehicle that they will end up not producing? They've already made several prototypes and have even taken reservations. Have they ever taken reservations for a model (not sub model) of car that they then didn't produce?

Particularly considering Tesla has been trotting the Cybertruck out at every public event lately.

 

[rr6013]

Particularly considering Tesla has been trotting the Cybertruck out at every public event lately.

Did you miss Elon calling out that GigaFactories are a massive money burning machine right now? https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/23/mus...tin-factories-losing-billions-of-dollars.html

In the same breath, “bankruptcy” was used as real if the supply chain isn’t working and soon.
https://www.autoevolution.com/news/...are-losing-insane-money-right-now-191914.html

 

[cyberhunter]

The Rivian and the Lightning both have about 310-320 miles of range.

With a bunch of YouTubers testing the range, and efficiency (loaded, unloaded, towing, etc) of those two trucks, we have a good feel that aero drag coefficient is very important-in addition to the size of the battery.

So, we have to wait and see what size battery they put in the first production run of Cybertrucks.
We know 135 KwH for the Rivian and 131 KwH for the Lightning.

The Tesla Model S long range has a 100 KwH battery.

If the Cybertruck has a battery of 130-135 Kwh, will it have a range of 400 miles because of the wedge shape? We will have to see.

Out of Spec Reviews Youtube channel did highway speed loop tests on range for both Rivian and Ford. I believe they were in the 2mi/kwh range. To be exact, Rivian R1T was 2.15 mi/kwh on that test. The R1T is smaller than the CT, but let's assume the CT will get the same 2.15 mi/kwh on the highway.

That means the CT will need a 185 kwh battery to get a true 400 miles on the highway. Luckily payload (if under the tonneau and not contributing to drag) has minimal effect on range... roughly 5% drop or less according to real world tests.

I have read in the past many sites that predicted the CT battery would be in the 185 kwh range to get that "up to 500 miles range" number. It makes sense to be about 185 kwh because you need 2.7 mi/kwh to get the 500mi range. If you are driving 55 mph you might be able to hit 2.7 mi/kwh. The model X plaid gets just under 3 mi/kwh, so it's possible the CT hits that 2.7 mi/kwh number.

I'm going to assume the CT will be in that 185 kwh battery size for the "500 mile" range model. Anything smaller from the battery pack, and that means we are going to see 400 mi range models come off the line first. I would expect that we don't get anything under 400 mi range for CT, because then why not just go get a Ford or Chevy and Tesla wants to back up that it has the most capable vehicle in the category. I'm guessing we will get the battery being 150 kwh and 400 mi range for the first ones, with later options being the 185 kwh battery and 500 mi range.

 

[Throwcomputer]

Out of Spec Reviews Youtube channel did highway speed loop tests on range for both Rivian and Ford. I believe they were in the 2mi/kwh range. To be exact, Rivian R1T was 2.15 mi/kwh on that test. The R1T is smaller than the CT, but let's assume the CT will get the same 2.15 mi/kwh on the highway.

That means the CT will need a 185 kwh battery to get a true 400 miles on the highway. Luckily payload (if under the tonneau and not contributing to drag) has minimal effect on range... roughly 5% drop or less according to real world tests.

I have read in the past many sites that predicted the CT battery would be in the 185 kwh range to get that "up to 500 miles range" number. It makes sense to be about 185 kwh because you need 2.7 mi/kwh to get the 500mi range. If you are driving 55 mph you might be able to hit 2.7 mi/kwh. The model X plaid gets just under 3 mi/kwh, so it's possible the CT hits that 2.7 mi/kwh number.

I'm going to assume the CT will be in that 185 kwh battery size for the "500 mile" range model. Anything smaller from the battery pack, and that means we are going to see 400 mi range models come off the line first. I would expect that we don't get anything under 400 mi range for CT, because then why not just go get a Ford or Chevy and Tesla wants to back up that it has the most capable vehicle in the category. I'm guessing we will get the battery being 150 kwh and 400 mi range for the first ones, with later options being the 185 kwh battery and 500 mi range.

400 mi range base model would make quite a lot of us happy.

 

[intimidator]

Out of Spec Reviews Youtube channel did highway speed loop tests on range for both Rivian and Ford. I believe they were in the 2mi/kwh range. To be exact, Rivian R1T was 2.15 mi/kwh on that test. The R1T is smaller than the CT, but let's assume the CT will get the same 2.15 mi/kwh on the highway.

That means the CT will need a 185 kwh battery to get a true 400 miles on the highway. Luckily payload (if under the tonneau and not contributing to drag) has minimal effect on range... roughly 5% drop or less according to real world tests.

I have read in the past many sites that predicted the CT battery would be in the 185 kwh range to get that "up to 500 miles range" number. It makes sense to be about 185 kwh because you need 2.7 mi/kwh to get the 500mi range. If you are driving 55 mph you might be able to hit 2.7 mi/kwh. The model X plaid gets just under 3 mi/kwh, so it's possible the CT hits that 2.7 mi/kwh number.

I'm going to assume the CT will be in that 185 kwh battery size for the "500 mile" range model. Anything smaller from the battery pack, and that means we are going to see 400 mi range models come off the line first. I would expect that we don't get anything under 400 mi range for CT, because then why not just go get a Ford or Chevy and Tesla wants to back up that it has the most capable vehicle in the category. I'm guessing we will get the battery being 150 kwh and 400 mi range for the first ones, with later options being the 185 kwh battery and 500 mi range.

The 310 mile range R1T has a 135 kWh battery.
Supposedly the 400+mile range R1T will have a 180 kWh battery.

If Tesla can squeeze 500 miles out of a 185 kWh battery, they will be kicking efficiency butt.

I will trade my Rivian in on a 500 mile CyberTruck....someday.

Hopefully late 2024.

 

[Crissa]

Out of Spec Reviews Youtube channel did highway speed loop tests on range for both Rivian and Ford. I believe they were in the 2mi/kwh range. To be exact, Rivian R1T was 2.15 mi/kwh on that test. The R1T is smaller than the CT, but let's assume the CT will get the same 2.15 mi/kwh on the highway.

The Cybertruck is longer, that doesn't mean it has similar frontal area or drag coefficient or weight. In fact, the Cybertruck is supposed to be better in all those departments.

-Crissa

 

[cyberhunter]

The Cybertruck is longer, that doesn't mean it has similar frontal area or drag coefficient or weight. In fact, the Cybertruck is supposed to be better in all those departments.

-Crissa

Let's hope the CT is more performant in all categories...that means more range and efficiency, which I really want. I was just using the R1T, which is more the size of a Tacoma as a benchmark. The CT from all accounts is larger than the CT in width. I'm not sure about height. I will be very interested when the first CT efficiency and range tests start showing up. I also hope the CT is 350 kw charging capable. If we do get those large battery packs, then we will crave/desire/need very fast charge rates when it is in use towing or on long road trips with minimal stops.

 

[TheLastStarfighter]

I think a full-featured, quad motor Plaid Cybertruck will be the first production run, probably for all of 2023 and into 2024. It will be expensive, moreso than the Model S Plaid. This way they can maximize profits while they work out production bugs. It will also mean the first CT's out in the wild will destroy performance tests and be the baddest thing on the road, raising hype. Then as they have battery supply up and production streamlined, we'll see the other variants, especially the Dual motor which will be the volume seller.

I do think they will hit mid '23 for production. The factory is built, the gigapress is on its way, and the design is finalized. It all sounds realistic. Can't wait to see the final car. Probably this fall.

 

[charliemagpie]

I think a full-featured, quad motor Plaid Cybertruck will be the first production run, probably for all of 2023 and into 2024. It will be expensive, moreso than the Model S Plaid.

I don't think Plaid will reach into 24.
EM said sales fall off a cliff when the car reaches a certain price point.
As an example, he expects models 3 million 3 & Y to reach 3/4 million, but only sells 100,000 X&S.

Maybe 10,000 Plaids will be sold. That figure I just feel is a ballpark guess, but I don't think it will be anywhere near 100,000.