TheLastStarfighter

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I don't think Plaid will reach into 24.
EM said sales fall off a cliff when the car reaches a certain price point.
As an example, he expects models 3 million 3 & Y to reach 3/4 million, but only sells 100,000 X&S.

Maybe 10,000 Plaids will be sold. That figure I just feel is a ballpark guess, but I don't think it will be anywhere near 100,000.
Well, I think the Truck production will be 50% or less of capacity (previously said to be 250k per year), and we're talking half a year to reach 2024, so that's around 65k trucks if "mid 2023" means a full 6 months and they hit 50% capacity right away. Both are optimistic.

I think the demand for the CT Plaid will far exceed model X and S because a) it's super cool, new and unique and b) it's a truck, and 'merica loves trucks.

Previous data says demand was around 30-50-20% 3-2-1 motor for the CT. And there are probably a million or more reservations. If half the reservations bail, that's still 150k tri motors. How many would spring extra for the Quad? I don't know. But I think it's closer to 100k than 10k.

 

charliemagpie

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Well, I think the Truck production will be 50% or less of capacity (previously said to be 250k per year), and we're talking half a year to reach 2024, so that's around 65k trucks if "mid 2023" means a full 6 months and they hit 50% capacity right away. Both are optimistic.

I think the demand for the CT Plaid will far exceed model X and S because a) it's super cool, new and unique and b) it's a truck, and 'merica loves trucks.

Previous data says demand was around 30-50-20% 3-2-1 motor for the CT. And there are probably a million or more reservations. If half the reservations bail, that's still 150k tri motors. How many would spring extra for the Quad? I don't know. But I think it's closer to 100k than 10k.
Yea..
I had 2 price points guesstimates in mind for the Quad

Quad Plaid $140,000 (10k units)
Quad $85,000 100,000+ who will upgrade from Tri
 

Tinker71

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I don't think Plaid will reach into 24.
EM said sales fall off a cliff when the car reaches a certain price point.
As an example, he expects models 3 million 3 & Y to reach 3/4 million, but only sells 100,000 X&S.

Maybe 10,000 Plaids will be sold. That figure I just feel is a ballpark guess, but I don't think it will be anywhere near 100,000.

I was going to write a detailed opinion about quantities, price points, ramp rates etc. but it would be just another WAG. Now that Tesla has truly narrowed down design and production to a 3 month window you can bet that their sales strategy is getting locked down too. They have studied the competition response in terms of performance, volume and price in the mid 2023 timeframe and will want to raise and set the bar for that time period. This will occur when the first letters come out and not sooner. I really don't see the advantage of doing it earlier other than providing enough leeway for people to plan for. I am not sure there is even a reason for Tesla to release detailed specification before this either. I would just give the competition specific numbers to try to beat before release.

My new WAG is Nov 19, 2022. It gives people something to talk about for the holidays.
 


Tinker71

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The other half of locking down the CT design is where will this talent focus on next? While some will move with the CT production line planning and working with sub vendors for production, I would imagine a core group moves to the next product.

Is it the robotaxi van thing? Model 3 refresh with structural packs? Has Tesla truly abandoned the model 2?
 

Crissa

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The other half of locking down the CT design is where will this talent focus on next?
Probably why the layoffs. 😕

Is it the robotaxi van thing?
Needs FSD to be finished. No point before.

Model 3 refresh with structural packs?
Lowering the cost of the Model 3 is a low hanging fruit. But they have the Cybertruck in the way right now.

Has Tesla truly abandoned the model 2?
They've never had a chance to work on it yet. So can it be abandoned? They're producing every car they can and still they have months-long waiting times. The Model Y is just flying off the shelf, and have a big profit margin as well. They're limited only by the cells they can get in the long run.

-Crissa
 
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Tinker71

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Probably why the layoffs. 😕


Needs FSD too be finished. No point before.


Lowering the cost of the Model 3 is a low hanging fruit. But they have the Cybertruck in the way right now.


They've never had a chance to work on it yet. So can it be abandoned? They're producing every car they can and still they have months-long waiting times. The Model Y is just flying off the shelf, and have a big profit margin as well. They're limited only by the cells they can get in the long run.

-Crissa
I predict model Y demand will crash at the current price point. I predict a price reduction in 6 months or less. It might not be much but Tesla has plenty of margin to work with and they will want to keep production optimized at the new factories.

I think they will advance the Robotaxi with some of their resources. FSD will be really good in 3 years, maybe 2. This last bit is going to be hard though. They might as well have the vehicle really close. They do need some PR stunts to keep the market interest up. I am pretty excited for the potential social shift for environment, traffic, and urban planning.

I am a little sad the model 2 probably won't be built by Tesla. Maybe an optimized Model 3 will help with the low end of the market. I hate it when the USA gives up a segment. A four seater with a one piece cast frame would be pretty cool. A steering wheel option for me would be a requirement tho.
 

intimidator

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The Cybertruck is longer, that doesn't mean it has similar frontal area or drag coefficient or weight. In fact, the Cybertruck is supposed to be better in all those departments.

-Crissa
Is it possible the Cybertruck will be more efficient than the Rivian and the Lightning?

Sure.

Is it a guarantee? No.

Looking at the shape of the CT, you would think it would be more efficient. It is much less a brick, and with the tonneau closed has a swooping back which almost always aids in lowering the Cd

No of us know though. I guess we will find out in the fall of 2023.
 

intimidator

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I don't think Plaid will reach into 24.
EM said sales fall off a cliff when the car reaches a certain price point.
As an example, he expects models 3 million 3 & Y to reach 3/4 million, but only sells 100,000 X&S.

Maybe 10,000 Plaids will be sold. That figure I just feel is a ballpark guess, but I don't think it will be anywhere near 100,000.
Price point is definitely something ALL EV makers will have to contend with.

There are a lot of people that tap out once an EV is selling over $50,000.
Personally I am good with $75,000-$80,000 for a Rivian R1T or a Lighting Lariat, but anything over $100,000 I don't even want to look at it.

If the history of recessions over the last 50 years has proven anything is that "highish" ticket items go into a sales slump. Sure, Steven Spielberg will still buy his $100 million yacht with or without a recession, but the $250,000 boat takes a sales hit.
 


FutureBoy

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Crissa

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Is it possible the Cybertruck will be more efficient than the Rivian and the Lightning?

Sure.

Is it a guarantee? No.
Every Tesla is more efficient than nearly all in its class. The Lucid is more efficient than the Model S, but only barely.

-Crissa
 
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GnarlyDudeLive

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Every Tesla is more efficient than nearly all in its class. He Lucid is more efficient than the Model S, but only barely.

-Crissa
I am not surprised at all about Lucid being slightly more efficient than the Model S. I am doubtful that a ton of focus on improving the S is going on since the Plaid version arrived and even then it was more focused on performance than efficiency really. Tesla has much higher volume vehicles where efforts for efficiency pays vastly larger dividends for them and consumers. As per my late grandmother: you can only spread the butter so thin before the bread starts tasting dry. LOL
 

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In 1993 I bought a Maytag fridge. Double doors, ice maker. Old-fashioned quality build. Nothing flimsy, you just knew it would last many many years. Moved into 4 houses. It lasted 25 years. In the end, I probably could/should have called a repair man... but decided to renew.

The LG fridge which followed, lasted months before the plastic in the veg draw cracked, the shelf in the freezer cracked. Looks nice, but the overall build is cheap, you can just feel the differences.

Chalk and cheese.

Let's compare and value these vehicles after 5 years on the road.

 

 
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