Elon Says Final Cybertruck Design is Now Locked! Updated Production Timeline = Mid-2023

[Cybertruck Hawaii]

Unlike most (all?) cars, the CT doesn't have a "kink" where the hood meets the windshield. No place to hide it. Stored horizontal it would be a drag nightmare. How they currently have it would reduce drag and also visually hide it from the interior along the a-pillar. There might be some creative way to hide it, but it's not obvious what that is thus far.

. Parking it vertically may reduce air drag, but it isn’t going to hide it from us. It’s still something that I can live with.

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[TAP1A]

after owning a performance model 3 and a base long range rwd, that long range rwd is fast enough for me. i wont be racing and the range is much more useful.

 

[TheLastStarfighter]

. Parking it vertically may reduce air drag, but it isn’t going to hide it from us. It’s still something that I can live with.

no question it's hideous from the exterior. From the interior, you'll barely see it behind the a pillar.

 

[Tinker71]

Nope, it cannot! Do some deep research! It can crank out a rear cast every 60-120sec, but it doesn't mean it works this way for 24/7/365.

There are 525600 minutes per year. If you assume each cast while fully operational takes 90 seconds, so in 375000 minutes you would make 250,000, the rest of the year 150,600 minutes (104 days)would be for maintenance etc.

 

[charliemagpie]

250,000 would be minimal. Elon said 5000 per week is considered to be scaled up. I don't think he was implying maximums.

1 month downtime. 70 secs per cast. = 400,000.

Rounded down to 7500 Ct's per week


Elon said they have 3 years? Worth of orders.

That's 1.2 million @ 400,000 per year.

10 Billion profit per year. Buy TSLA

 

[Coolbreeze704]

70 secs per cast. = 400,000.

That is incredible. It takes be 138 seconds to make a PBJ sandwich

 

[WildhavenMI]

I do think ya'll are still missing the pack weight factor. Using the Model S 85kWh/1200lb pack weight as proxy, the pack alone on a 400 mi CT is going to weigh ~2800 lbs. A steel body is already gonna be heavy too.

Lets do more sloppy math - F-150 Lightning has a curb weight of 6100 lbs with a pack size of 98kWh. Add 102kWh more worth of weight and I think we're looking at a curb weight on the CT north of 7,500lbs. Even with magic Tesla motors, I'm not 100% we can get 2mi/kWh out of a vehicle that heavy. And I bet the body of the CT is gonna be heavier than the Lightning.

 

[Cybertruck Hawaii]

no question it's hideous from the exterior. From the interior, you'll barely see it behind the a pillar.

. After waiting three years on a waiting list for the Cybertruck, I’ll take any functional version just as long as it can pass a safety check.

 

[Crissa]

I do think ya'll are still missing the pack weight factor. Using the Model S 85kWh/1200lb pack weight as proxy, the pack alone on a 400 mi CT is going to weigh ~2800 lbs. A steel body is already gonna be heavy too.

The Model S uses the 18650 battery pack. It doesn't have the structural pack advantages, which are said to be about 50% more than the Model 3 pack which is itself better (at 1k lbs) than that original Model S.

So... I guess we have to wait until Sandy Munro gets an Austin Model Y to see what that advantage really is.

-Crissa

 

[Tinker71]

I do think ya'll are still missing the pack weight factor. Using the Model S 85kWh/1200lb pack weight as proxy, the pack alone on a 400 mi CT is going to weigh ~2800 lbs. A steel body is already gonna be heavy too.

Lets do more sloppy math - F-150 Lightning has a curb weight of 6100 lbs with a pack size of 98kWh. Add 102kWh more worth of weight and I think we're looking at a curb weight on the CT north of 7,500lbs. Even with magic Tesla motors, I'm not 100% we can get 2mi/kWh out of a vehicle that heavy. And I bet the body of the CT is gonna be heavier than the Lightning.

1.) The CT3 pack at 500 miles might only be 185kWhr
2.) the structural pack is a little lighter per kWhr
3.) Aerodynamics is probably more important than mass in highway driving. Sans trailers.
4.) The CT should be lighter than the lightning with the aluminum mega cast and efficient triangle truss structure. 4680 are lighter as well for energy density.
5.) CT will be the most efficient vehicle in its class on the road.

 

[Bill906]

There are 525600 minutes per year.

Sorry, I have to be pedantic again...
There are 525,949.2 minutes in a year.
(There are 365.24 days in a year)
Yes I realize that fact really screws up a song in my favorite musical.

 

[Regenshire]

I would think it would be Dual motor. Less batteries which are their biggest constraint. Look at the ramp in Texas.

This would also line up with the history of the Model 3 program. They first launched with the mid-tier long range RWD vehicles for nearly 3/4 of a year before they expanded to Performance vehicles. The mid-range vehicles used less motors and less battery, which reduces constraints from those parts, and it gave them additional time to work on the performance motors and Software they needed for the performance models while ramping up the production lines.

The Model Y came out with Performance first, but the Model Y is on the same platform as the mature Model 3 program so they could just start generating the most expensive models since they already had the battery and motors being produced in volume, and it was just using the same software.

The Cybertruck is a new platform, so I do think it is likely they would start with the middle trim that uses less batteries and less motors until the software for performance is ready, they have worked out most of the bugs in the line, and they have enough bandwidth to support the larger batteries and higher number of motors being produced for the 4 motor design.

 

[GnarlyDudeLive]

The Cybertruck is a new platform, so I do think it is likely they would start with the middle trim that uses less batteries and less motors until the software for performance is ready, they have worked out most of the bugs in the line, and they have enough bandwidth to support the larger batteries and higher number of motors being produced for the 4 motor design.

I am going to go out on a limb here and disagree for the following reasons. From a ramp up perspective the first runs coming off the line will be slow and not get the full costing advantages of scale. That being said, a higher profit margin CTx4 motor variant can help to offset those cost disadvantages at the start of the production run and perhaps allow Tesla to profit slightly or at least break even until the lines speed up. Also even though the CTx4 is likely to consume more batteries than the CTx2 or CTx1, the same initial slow speed of production shouldn't create much of an issue for battery supply constraints. Once the line is purring along, I would imagine that the other motor variants will start to be produced and that might be dictated by battery availability at that given time.

 

[Regenshire]

I am going to go out on a limb here and disagree for the following reasons. From a ramp up perspective the first runs coming off the line will be slow and not get the full costing advantages of scale. That being said, a higher profit margin CTx4 motor variant can help to offset those cost disadvantages at the start of the production run and perhaps allow Tesla to profit slightly or at least break even until the lines speed up. Also even though the CTx4 is likely to consume more batteries than the CTx2 or CTx1, the same initial slow speed of production shouldn't create much of an issue for battery supply constraints. Once the line is purring along, I would imagine that the other motor variants will start to be produced and that might be dictated by battery availability at that given time.

And you might very well be correct on this. I think it depends on how mature and well scaled 4680 production is at that point, other supply constraints (glass, seats, chips, ect), and how fast they plan to ramp the line. If the battery and motor are not constraints, and the software for the higher end trim is done, they may well launch with it first since it in theory has a higher margin.

All of this is conjecture and I wouldn't be shocked if Tesla doesn't 100% know until they get close to production and know what their constraints are. About the only thing I am sure of is that Tesla is very agile and will change plans to address issues and constraints as they occur, so we can't really predict with any accuracy what they are going to do.

 

[GnarlyDudeLive]

And you might very well be correct on this. I think it depends on how mature and well scaled 4680 production is at that point, other supply constraints (glass, seats, chips, ect), and how fast they plan to ramp the line. If the battery and motor are not constraints, and the software for the higher end trim is done, they may well launch with it first since it in theory has a higher margin.

All of this is conjecture and I wouldn't be shocked if Tesla doesn't 100% know until they get close to production and know what their constraints are. About the only thing I am sure of is that Tesla is very agile and will change plans to address issues and constraints as they occur, so we can't really predict with any accuracy what they are going to do.

I agree and more specifically (IMO) it would work like the following.

Make CTx4 until either batteries, motors, or orders become a constraint then switch to CTx2 order fulfillment. This should in theory maximize revenue and profit while balancing resources available.

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