Elon Talks Economy, Possible Discounting, Demand Issues, Stock Sales, and TSLA on on Twitter Spaces

Cybertruckee

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Interesting times!

I clearly remember "experts" making a call that recession in 2022 with global supply chain issues and the oil/grain situations brought to you by the Russian-Ukraine war.

It did not happen, so it's now in 2023, and they experts and Elon may yet talk us into having one.

And yes, the Feds, while not actually declaring it, may push the interest rates higher that we may have a recession (and believe me, they are willing to have a brief and milder one) in order to fight inflation, their mandate, along with employment.

Working against the ill-wishers, political or otherwise, is the pull factor of very strong consumer demand. Ask the credit card companies seeing strong spending these holiday season.

Easing supply chain issues. No more empty shelves and out-of-stock items. Some have even are facing excess inventories.

Strong employment. There are 2 vacant jobs for every 1 unemployed. The Fed is not seeing an equilibrium soon with companies coming home to roost and relocation back stateside after seeing how having it in China can be disruptive to their operations. Then there is Biden administration's infrastructure law going full blast in repairing bridges, roads and nationwide internet connectivity. Add the administration's incentive program for domestic and on-shore battery and EV production -- coupled with solar and other alternative energy sources development and build. Compound that with Biden's declaration that chips are strategic materials that should be manufactured here and should not be exported to potential hostile countries.

While I'm a practitioner and have studied and read about it since Hoover's Great Depression and his tepid response to the looming and fast developing crisis, FDR's Keynesian response of massive infrastructure projects to generate employment resulting in post war boom, Clinton's correct prescription of looming inflation due to an economic boom and overheating economy by incentivizing production, Obama's addressing Bush Jr's Great Recession with income tax cuts for working families, infrastructure, health care assistance and lender of last resort to struggling companies.

In summary, I don't know. The global economy put in more complexities than the simple push-pull of demand/supply, monetary policies, unique competitiveness of nations, propensity to consume or save, (money) flight to quality, etc.
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