from what I recall, you get a VIN assigned while you’re still finalizing financing and payment and actual delivery. So that’s not an issue. Your assigned a vin and it waits for you.The great unknown here is the conversion rate.
And then the “delayed conversion” (those who convert their res to an order, but delay it for an option, or finances, or whatever)
Then is the rollout plan from Tesla. If the 3+ had a reservation list, then all of Europe and Asia would be ahead of the US, regardless of your number.
So you could know the exact production schedule, and still have no solid date on when they get to you.
And also your point about Europe….well I assume they will prioritize US first since CT is made in Austin TX. My M3 example from 2017 was when they were made in California only and I’m in SoCal.
Plus people who reserved many and only get one, or decide to cancel. So if your in the US I assume that means you’ll be bumped even sooner than your current reservation number.