EVs vs Floods - no, Florida, they don't explode.

[Crissa]

Transport Evolved takes this on in a rather straightforward way. Warning, lots of chemistry.

-Crissa

Sponsored

 

[CyberGus]

But but but...the Florida CFO said there were "tons" of fires!

 

[Crissa]

But but but...the Florida CFO said there were "tons" of fires!

There were eight that TE could find. And he's a financial appointee, not a fire expert.

-Crissa

 

[SpaceYooper]

Is it a valid concern? Post-flood, do EV's have a higher chance of combusting? If there were 8 that did; what was the denominator to the 8? How many ICE combusted post flood and what's their denominator?

Yes, I watched the video. I audibly laughed at the 1.5% of all ICE vehicles that catch fire during their life because common sense tells me that number is absolute trash.

I had to look it up just to confirm my laughter.
The reality is here.
https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a40163966/cars-catching-fire-new-york-times-real-statistics/

No, Millions of Cars Are Not Catching Fire Every Year
A New York Times story about U.S. car fires references a study that gets the frequency wrong by a factor of at least 60.
BY EZRA DYERPUBLISHED: JUN 2, 2022



MARC URBANO|CAR AND DRIVER
“We may have slightly overestimated the claimed percentage rate for fires given by the AutoinsuranceEZ company, as a few readers pointed out. Therefore, we have revised the text to clarify that the claimed rate of fires is likely around 2 to 3 percent of all vehicles, not 5 as we originally estimated. However, since we can’t know the total numbers of hybrid vs. ICE vehicles referenced in the study, we can’t make a closer calculation.”
Last month, the New York Times ran a story about EV safety and car fires that caught our eye over here at the C/D Department of Fishy Assertions. Titled "Hurdle to Broad Adoption of EVs: The Misperception That They're Unsafe," it argues that electric cars catch fire less often than conventional internal-combustion cars or hybrids. It reads, in part:

AutoInsuranceEZ studied the frequency of fires—from all causes, including collisions—in automobiles in 2021. It found that hybrid vehicles, which have an internal combustion engine and an electric motor, had the most fires per 100,000 vehicles (3475), while vehicles with just an internal combustion engine placed second (1530 per 100,000). Fully electric vehicles had the fewest: 25 per 100,000. These findings were based on data from the National Transportation Safety Board and the Bureau of Transportation Statistics.

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You don't have to be a professional statistician to notice that these AutoInsuranceEZ numbers look a wee bit questionable. Because, EVs and hybrids aside, if 1530 conventional internal-combustion cars (aka, "most of the cars") are catching fire per 100,000 vehicles, that would equate to millions of car fires each year—as of 2020, there were roughly 270 million registered passenger vehicles in the US. Imagine that: You'd definitely know someone whose car caught fire. Maybe your car caught fire. It might be on fire right now! "Oh, another car fire," you'd say, driving past the third conflagration of your morning commute.

MAYBE THEY’RE COMPARING ALL FIRES WITH A SINGLE YEAR OF NEW-CAR SALES? WE’LL LET YOU KNOW IF WE UNTANGLE THIS.
CAR AND DRIVER
To try to figure out where these numbers came from, we first contacted the National Transportation Safety Board, purported source for the car-fire statistics. And the NTSB's spokesman told us, "There is no NTSB database that tracks highway vehicle fires. We do not know what data AutoInsuranceEZ used for its research, but it did not come from an NTSB database." They suggested that perhaps the study authors confused the NTSB with NHTSA, the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration. So we contacted NHTSA.
And guess what? NHTSA doesn't collect fire data in this way, either. NHTSA—which we should call "the NHTSA," but that sounds weird—collects data on crashes but says that only about 5 percent of fires are crash-related. So they rely on other sources for information, like the National Fire Incident Reporting System (NFIRS). Which, in any case, doesn't categorize fires according to the type of vehicle powertrain.
At this point you may be asking whether your car is going to catch fire or what, so here's what we found. According to the National Fire Protection Association, which gets its info from the NFIRS, passenger cars averaged 117,400 fires annually between 2013 and 2017. And the Bureau of Transportation Statistics says that there were 261,037,752 registered vehicles in the US in 2018 (excluding semi-trucks, motorcycles, and buses). So, do a little division, carry the one . . . and that equals .04 percent of vehicles catching fire in a given year.
We reached out to AutoinsuranceEZ (which appears to be a lead generator for car insurance companies), and we'll let you know if they ever get back to us, but in the meantime, here's your good news for the day: Regardless of whether you drive a Rivian, a Prius, or a Cutlass Supreme donk, your car probably won't ever catch fire. But if you still want to wear Nomex underpants, we're not gonna stop you.

 

[Crissa]

• NFIRS doesn't capture all relevant data; it's a subset of fire departments.
• NFIRS doesn't capture fires that did not need the fire department to suppress them, but may generate claims or end the life of the vehicle.
• The number of licensed vehicles exceeds the number actually used.
• The lifetime to the average vehicle is about ten years, which means they're exposed to this danger ten times, not just a single years' worth.

And in fact, people drive past cars that caught fire all the time. I did last night. It was put out by the highway patrol, the fire department didn't wait for the tow truck. It's not at all unusual.

-Crissa

 

[CyberGus]

According to the National Fire Protection Association, which gets its info from the NFIRS, passenger cars averaged 117,400 fires annually between 2013 and 2017.

FEMA days it's 170,000 fires per year (2014-2016).
https://www.usfa.fema.gov/downloads/pdf/statistics/v19i2.pdf
Either way, that's allot...300-500 a day!

And the Bureau of Transportation Statistics says that there were 261,037,752 registered vehicles in the US in 2018 (excluding semi-trucks, motorcycles, and buses). So, do a little division, carry the one . . . and that equals .04 percent of vehicles catching fire in a given year.

Incorrect math. No one said "1.5% ICE vehicles catch fire each year", the statistic cited by the "Transport Evolved" video was "catch fire during it's lifetime", which is typically 10 years. So 0.15% would need to catch fire each year to reach the 1.5% lifetime number. That still gives us a number more than double the 170k fires reported, but it's not off by 60x.

The article you posted was from months ago, refuting the stats reported by "AutoInsuranceEZ". I'm not sure what it had to do with the video?

 

[firsttruck]

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What I find astounding is the high rate of fires for hybrids and so little mention by media and ICE supporters.

 

[CyberGus]

I think the pro-ICE narrative being promoted is that ICE fires are minor and the result of negligence (accidents), while EV fires are spontaneous and inextinguishable.

 

[Crissa]

I think the pro-ICE narrative being promoted is that ICE fires are minor and the result of negligence (accidents), while EV fires are spontaneous and inextinguishable.

Which isn't true, of course. Not much of an ICE vehicle is left after the fuel or textiles catch fire - where as a BEV's mass and fire resistance just means that a good chunk of it remains after one or the other has caught.

-Crissa

 

[HaulingAss]

Which isn't true, of course. Not much of an ICE vehicle is left after the fuel or textiles catch fire - where as a BEV's mass and fire resistance just means that a good chunk of it remains after one or the other has caught.

-Crissa

In my observations, gas cars as well as EV's are pretty much totally consumed if they happen to catch fire. The biggest difference in an accident is the gas gar typically turns into an instand fireball before it has come to a complete stop (because the tank or lines were ruptured and ignited by steel sparking on pavement) while the BEV fire will start very slowly in one part of the battery and slowly build heat, eventually going into thermal runaway of the entire pack. But this takes a number of minutes and gives the occupants time to exit the vehicle that an ICE fire typically doesn't provide.

Insurance companies have the best data on the rate of car fires and last I heard, gas cars burned about 10 or 12 times as often per million miles travelled. What does all this mean? If you are afraid of the small chance that you might burn to death in your car, the only logical choice in a car is a BEV which is devoid of flammable liquids.

 

[Sirfun]

I had an engine compartment fire in a ICE car when I was a teenager almost 50 years ago. I was an idiot, and pulled into a gas station to use their fire extinguisher. The guy working at the gas station had a fit when I drove up to the gas pumps with a car on fire.
They say God looks after fools. Well, somehow it worked out, and I was able to get the fire out. But the car had to be towed from there.

 

[CyberGus]

Two weeks ago, a grass fire at a Texas pumpkin patch destroyed over 70 cars. Astute observers will identify the background vehicle in the above photo as a Tesla Model Y.

It burned just like the rest, but doesn’t seem to have contributed to the flames. Maybe EVs aren’t ticking time bombs after all?

 

[firsttruck]

Two weeks ago, a grass fire at a Texas pumpkin patch destroyed over 70 cars. Astute observers will identify the background vehicle in the above photo as a Tesla Model Y.

It burned just like the rest, but doesn’t seem to have contributed to the flames. Maybe EVs aren’t ticking time bombs after all?

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Fire at the Robinson Family Farm shuts down business
Oct 15, 2022
KCENNews

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Here's why there is no official cause to The Robinson Family Farm fire, at least not yet
Officials need to be able to say the cause without a doubt, and right now they can't.
Author: Baylee Bates
Published: October 26, 2022
https://www.kcentv.com/article/news...fire/500-cdbb2b35-ec43-4ee0-aee0-1dda7fc78763


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Resident describes fire that destroyed dozens of vehicles at Central Texas pumpkin patch More than 70 cars were destroyed in a fire at the Robinson Family Farm in Temple, Texas USA
Author: Malini Basu (WFAA)
Published: 9:39 PM CDT October 16, 2022
https://www.wfaa.com/article/news/l...atch/287-38d0fac7-ae88-445f-804a-734c81b596f2

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[firsttruck]

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For ICE in grass it is now even more risky. It is not just the exhaust pipes and catalytic converter. Diesel pickup trucks, SUVs, 4x4s now have another pollution emissions component that can get extra hot - diesel particulate filter (DPF).

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2020 August 4 (2 years ago)
NEWSROOM: MOTORIST PARKED VEHICLE IN DRY GRASS IGNITING 9,500-ACRE MAYS FIRE IN SAN SABA COUNTY, Texas USA FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
Motorist parked vehicle in dry grass igniting 9,500-acre Mays Fire in San Saba County COLLEGE STATION, Texas — Firefighters from across the state are battling the still-growing, human-caused Mays Fire in San Saba and McCulloch Counties. The fire ignited on Aug. 1, approximately 16 miles east of Brady, Texas, as the result of an individual parking and idling their vehicle over tall, dry grass. The fire has currently burned an estimated 9,500 acres and is only 50% contained.
https://tfsweb.tamu.edu/content/article.aspx?id=31001


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Investigators have concluded particles from a truck exhaust system caused the 27,000-arce Apple Valley Fire in southern California near Cherry Valley.
Hot carbon particles from the exhaust system of a diesel-powered trucks is a common cause of vegetation fires along roadways.
Author Bill Gabbert
Posted on August 4, 2020
https://wildfiretoday.com/2020/08/04/investigators-say-the-apple-fire-was-caused-by-a-vehicle/

.....
Pieces of catalytic converters can also be discharged from exhaust pipes. Normally catalytic converters can reach up to 1,380°F. When they malfunction and overheat they can break apart at temperatures of 2,400 to 2,800°F. Hot ceramic particles discharge from the exhaust system either through the tail pipe or through failures in the outer shell of the converter itself.


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Diesel soot from car is cause of giant Apple Valley wildfire in California, officials say The 26,000-acre blaze, about 80 miles east of Los Angeles, has forced the evacuation of thousands in San Bernardino County.
Aug. 3, 2020
By Tim Stelloh
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-new...le-wildfire-california-officials-say-n1235711

.....
In an interview, a spokesman with the state Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, or
Cal Fire, said that witnesses saw a car shooting large diesel particles out of its exhaust
system Friday afternoon in the small Riverside County community of Cherry Valley,
roughly 80 miles east of Los Angeles.

“They’re almost like a small marble, sometimes larger, and when they land on dry
vegetation, they're extremely hot," Cal Fire spokesman Fernando Herrera said. "They can
ignite any type of fuel."

Investigators haven't identified the vehicle or its driver, he said, but they found the
particles in the area where the fire began. In a statement, fire officials described the
emissions as a "vehicle malfunction."


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One of the main causes of grass fires is driving and parking over tall, dry grass. The exhaust and catalytic converter on a vehicle can ignite grass.
Texas A&M Forest Service (@TXForestService) August 15, 2022


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4X4s and Grass Fire Risks. What You Need To Know Ford has just issued a recall of their hugely popular Ranger because of the risks of fire from grass collecting under the vehicle. Mazda has also acknowledged the problem on their BT-50, but this is a problem that goes well beyond just these two 4WDs.

https://www.club4x4.com.au/4x4s-grass-fire-risks-need-know/

.....
A diesel particulate filter (DPF) is a kind of catalyst that filters the soot out of your exhaust and catches it in the honeycomb structure of the filter. As the engine is running, the DPF will slowly block up with more and more soot.

Once the engine ECU notices the exhaust blocks up to a point, it goes into a regeneration phase. Exhaust gas temperatures are increased by altering the fuel injection timing, and even injecting some extra fuel into the exhaust gasses to really increase the temperature throughout the entire exhaust system. These very high temperatures (over 600 degrees Celsius / 1,100 degrees Fahrenheit ) are needed to burn off the collected soot in the filter, making room for more. Most (almost all) 4WDs have automatic regeneration cycles as the vehicle computer determines, so it might think it’s a great time to do a regen while your cruising over some tall grass..

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UPDATE: Small grass fires caused by vehicle's exhaust system
Redding Fire Department investigators said the three fires were caused by an improperly functioning vehicle exhaust system.
By Mike Chapman Redding Record Searchlight ( Redding, CA USA )
2021 June 11
https://www.redding.com/story/news/...-tie-up-lake-blvd-north-market-st/7656010002/

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Ford Rangers, Mazda BT-50s recalled as farmers report grass fires sparked by new vehicles.
Vic Country Hour / By Jess Davis and Adam Connors
Posted Thu 28 Dec 2017
https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2...recalled-as-farmers-report-spot-fires/9291848

.....
A farmer in western Victoria says a fire started by his new ute, a model recently recalled by the manufacturers, could have cost him millions of dollars in damage. More than 70,000 current-model Ford Ranger PXIIs and 20,000 Mazda BT-50s are affected in the official safety recall, some of which are still being sold to customers. The recall began in late December due to a fire risk caused by a diesel particulate filter operating at very high temperatures in the undercarriage.

Natimuk grain farmer Michael Sudholz said the safety warning has come too late for many farmers, as the recall did not reach him until his Ford Ranger started spot fires on his farm. "My wife was picking up my son from the mother bin, proceeding across the paddock, and unbeknownst to her she started three spot fires with the ute," Mr Sudholz said. "We lost probably 150 acres of crop and stubble, and within that was about 100 acres of standing wheat.

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FireSmart Your Farm
Published by government of Manitoba, Canada
https://firecomm.gov.mb.ca/docs/fire_smart_brochure_march2014.pdf

.....
How does machinery start fires?
Vehicles exhaust system can heat up to 500°C (1,100°F). When you're out operating, debris can build up on the exhaust and next to engine hot spots. When the debris dries out, it is ignited by the hot engine. These burning pieces of debris then fall off the machinery into dry fields, often starting wildfires.

You can do your part. Remember these four tips:
• Before you operate, inspect your machinery and clear any debris that has built up near the exhaust or other hot spots.
• Avoid operating in wet areas. (If you do, stop to remove all debris from your engine and other hot spots before it can dry out, heat up and ignite.)
• Always carry a small fire extinguisher, collapsible pail and shovel on your machine.
• Avoid riding in long cured grasses, or when it has been hot, dry and windy for a few days, when vegetations has very little moisture.

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Grassfires can start and spread quickly, especially on days when the Fire Danger Rating is Extreme or Catastrophic.
https://www.cfa.vic.gov.au/plan-prepare/am-i-at-risk/grassfires-rural

.....
Cars and vehicles can start grass-fires
Avoid driving vehicles and motorbikes through dry grass. the risk of starting a fire from the hot exhaust system is high. Even pulling over into grass at the side of the road could start a serious grassfire without you even being aware.

Vehicles have been involved in starting grass fires from:
Hot exhaust pipes and mufflers.
Catalytic converters on modern cars which can reach 400o C.
Diesel particulate filters on utes/trucks and other vehicles that operate at 600o C.
Simply stopping in long grass can start a fire.
Grass becoming caught up and accumulating around the under-body of vehicles and near exhaust systems.

 

[firsttruck]

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U.S. EPA
It should be noted that vegetation fires caused by hot automobile exhaust systems occurred before the advent of catalyst-equipped cars, and will occur in the future. The Forest Service has periodically conducted tests of cars for fire hazards since 1967 because of the long-standing concern by that agency over vehicle-induced fires in national forest recreational areas.


Understanding Fire Hazards with Catalyst-Equipped Cars U.S. EPA publication on the history and precautions associated with automobile catalyst systems.
U.S. EPA Publication "Review of Catalyst Overheating Issue"
March, 1983
https://www.tceq.texas.gov/airquality/mobilesource/vetech/catfire.html

.....
Fires May Still Happen
The EPA has received reports of vehicle and vegetation fires in which catalysts were involved from both vehicle owners and from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), an organization which has been monitoring the frequency of such incidents with individual manufacturers. In some cases, it appears that combustible undercoating material had been applied to the catalyst and other exhaust system hardware. In most cases, vehicles were also reported to have been running badly with evidence of nonfiring spark plugs or other ignition system defects. If an abnormal amount of unburned fuel is fed to any catalyst, which occurs when the engine is misfiring in one or more cylinders, the catalyst will attempt to "do its job" by burning this fuel instead of simply expelling it out the exhaust pipe as the case with older cars. When this happens, the surface temperature of the catalyst container and the exhaust pipe can become abnormally hot, possibly leading to charring or burning of undercoating inadvertently sprayed on the catalyst or exhaust system, charring of floor mats in the car, or ignition of dry vegetation if the vehicle is operated off-road. Vehicle service manuals caution against applying undercoating on the catalyst of exhaust systems.

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