FutureBoy

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So watching your comments Todd, combined with the clip you show of Sandy, I am thinking the following.

1. Seems like there are a large number of 1/2 ton pickup owners that actually own 2 vehicles. The truck for hauling, working, camping, etc and the 2nd vehicle for convenience, fun, thrills. You mention you have the moderate Tacoma truck and a motorcycle for fun. Sandy mentions Jeep buyers who then own a Mustang. And I know a lot of my relatives who have a similar setup. For family reasons I drive a Toyota Sienna and haul with a trailer. But if I had the cash I would have bought a pickup instead of the trailer.

2. If you look at the cost of the 2 vehicles together, you are well above the cost of a single-vehicle Cybertruck. If you have a conservative person who buys a dual-motor CT, it's cheaper than if that person were to buy a midlevel 1/2 ton pickup and a nice motorcycle or something like a mustang. If you have someone who really wants the added functionality and fun available, the tri-motor CT is MUCH cheaper than buying a decked-out pickup along with a nice sports car. Pretty much however you slice it, a single CT will be much cheaper than the 2 vehicle setups that many people are dealing with right now.

3. And then we can compare on functionality. Compare the CT with either of the 2 vehicles that most truck owners are using and the CT will almost always win on functionality. The CT can do almost everything that is desired and do it so well that it will far outcompete in functionality. Sure there are a few areas where there isn't a good fit. You mentioned the 8 ft bed truck bed. If you compare to supercars the CT is not going to be going 200 miles an hour or out compete at the Nürburgring track. But the price of that kind of functionality is so way out past the cost of the CT that there really is no reason to compare it.

4. Based on the points above, I imagine that with the great sales of the CT there will be a drop not just in the number of ICE trucks, but also in the number of ICE fun vehicles. Things like motorcycles, sports cars, etc. Not everyone will stop buying the second vehicle. But I can also see trades. For instance, someone who would have bought an ICE truck and a sports car, might instead buy a CT and then add on a motorcycle instead of a sports car. Or add an ATV instead of a motorcycle. Or some other change. But the second vehicle will be decided upon based on price and added fun. Not strictly on functionality.

Overall I think the experts in the video you showed are going to be eating crow. And it won't take a ton of time. There is going to be a huge change in the marketplace and the traditional experts seem to be completely blind to it. Makes one wonder what experts are really good for.

But hey, I'm just spouting my view. I'm no expert. Now if someone would like to start paying me to spout off, I'd consider the label of expert........... No one? Crickets? Ok, I'll shut up and watch this whole thing play out.
 

firsttruck

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In the comparison table they list they correctly show Cybertruck base price as $40,000 but then they exaggerate the Cybertruck ATP (average transaction price) as $70,000!!! $70,000 is the price of the price of the most expensive model Cybertruck (Tri-motor) with Autopilot only (not FSD). Since the competition will have only Autopillot not FSD, Autopilot only is fair to use. But they claim EV trucks are too expensive then list the highest model Cybertruck as average instead of a reasonable average of $55,000.
 

FutureBoy

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CTG is speculating as if he has facts. He may be right but I gave up and didn’t watch much. Both sides are unbalanced and a waste of time.
Not for nothing but if you have been following CTG videos you will see that he has personal experience, some data sampling from his community, insightful analysis of multiple expert reporting, and a kind inclusive demeanor that allows for others to have a differing set of needs. Sure in this single video he doesn't pull up all that information for the 100th time. This is one of the things I enjoy about his videos. He does come back to certain points repeatedly and in multiple videos because he is responding to points being made over and over by experts and critics. But instead of rehashing the same details, he lets you know that there is another video where he goes into the specific topic in-depth and lets you go explore that if you are so inclined.

I get very bored listening to other people who just bring up the same data over and over again. Who never add to their small point over time. Who never listen to what others are saying.

Instead, CTG rocks. Sure he is not going to be everyone's cup of tea (or shot of whiskey (Todd, what happened to the whiskey?)). But if you take the time to get up to speed on the data he is presenting I believe you will find he knows his stuff. Knows where the limits of his knowledge are. And knows how to bring in others input when it is needed.

Rock on CTG!!
 

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CTG is speculating as if he has facts. He may be right but I gave up and didn’t watch much. Both sides are unbalanced and a waste of time.
Cybertruck Guy has more quality facts than those supposed industry experts.

Those experts claim 40K-60K EV trucks by 2025.
Tesla will ship more than 60K Cybertrucks by end of 2022 and will ship more than 60K every year after that for many many years.

As CTG said, demand will not be a problem.
 

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Also Sandy Munro was not even a Tesla supporter until he saw the potential of the Cybertruck and saw how much Tesla manufacturing improved in a very short time (tear-down of Model 3 vs improved Model Y vs 3 month later more improved Model Y). He said in his long career he had never seen a car company improve & go on to innovate at the speed Tesla does. Sandy said with Tesla battery day improvements that lack of solid state batteries will not slow the immediate future of EVs.
 

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If GM/Chevy & Tesla get new Federal incentives of $5K then the ATP for Cybertruck with Autopilot only would be closer to $50K in years 2023-2025.
With the standard features of Cybertruck, the Cybertruck will completely blow away the Ford F-150/GMC/Chevy/RAM 1500 class trucks except for those buyers that need very long range or need 5th wheel. For everyone else the Cybertruck will have a significantly lower sale price and of course completely untouchable TCO compared to ICE trucks.

With Federal incentives the better featured Cybertruck (single motor) could be cheaper than base model ICE truck!!. More features, more torque, more payload, more towing, vault storage, 120/240V generator, air suspension, and many more than base ICE truck.
 
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Crissa

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...Nürburgring track...
You have a great point, but... you wrote the proper name in German and then said 'track' so you basically wrote Nur town track track. And "nür" refers to the town being isolated in the woods. Also you don't have to retain the umlaut in English ^-^

-Crissa
 

FutureBoy

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You have a great point, but... you wrote the proper name in German and then said 'track' so you basically wrote Nur town track track. And "nür" refers to the town being isolated in the woods. Also you don't have to retain the umlaut in English ^-^

-Crissa
Good catch. I don't speak German so just did a web search and copy for the name.
 

Crissa

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Good catch. I don't speak German so just did a web search and copy for the name.
Sometimes those little things are so distracting ^-^

But seriously, I liked your comparison to multiple vehicles. Because I'm doing exactly that: Comparing it to say, a Model Y and a trailer, or a two cars, or whatever. Since I have a motorcycle, I think I can manage having a big vehicle for the backup. That saves parking footprint. Which in the mountains, is actually important!

-Crissa
 

MEDICALJMP

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Todd, you’re getting some press at InsideEVs.com:





By: Steven Loveday
December 4, 2020

Detroit experts on Autoline Daily don't believe in the Tesla Cybertruck or most other upcoming electric pickup trucks.

It's important to note that the original YouTube title for the video above uses the word "experts" in quotes. Clearly, the Cybertruck Truck Guy is suggesting that these folks are not experts at all.
However, they've been following and reporting on the automotive space for many years. If electric pickup trucks come to market and sell well, many of these long-time industry experts may be shocked. At this point, many don't anticipate success.

What makes the Cybertruck Truck Guy an expert with the willingness to suggest that experts aren't experts? All you have to do is read the "About" section of his YouTube channel to understand. He writes:

"A channel dedicated to the Cybertruck from a 'Truck Guy's' perspective. I've been driving trucks for more than 10 years and help manage a company that has a fleet of close to 20 trucks ...
I got tired of all the 'experts' telling me why truck people weren't going to like the Cybertruck following its release so I started this channel to share why real truck people LOVE the Cybertruck."

There you have it. The Cybertruck Truck Guy is simply a "truck guy" who has years of experience with trucks and fleets. Needless to say, he loves the Tesla Cybertruck, he's not an official expert, and he's not happy that "official" experts are pushing back against electric pickup trucks.

With that said, we aren't happy that financial analysts and industry experts continue to doubt EVs either. We're also not experts. However, we've seen Tesla beat the odds many times when it comes to its performance compared to expert financial analysts' and industry experts' projections. At the same time, we've seen many EV startups and legacy automakers struggle and even fail with electric vehicles.

Tesla is much different from the rest of the automotive industry, and it doesn't follow expected "norms." In fact, it's more like a tech or software company than an automaker. Following and reporting on Tesla is much different from being an industry expert reporting on legacy brands and traditional cars. It comes as no surprise that old-school auto experts think the Cybertruck is ridiculous. Many think Tesla is ridiculous and should have failed years ago, but that hasn't been the case, at least not yet.

Over the years, we've watched amateur investors and YouTube influencers like the Cybertruck Truck Guy make predictions about Tesla and EVs with much more accuracy than many industry experts. This is because they follow the space exclusively, and they have personal experience with the cars and the company. However, this is not to say that every crazy Tesla YouTuber knows exactly what they're talking about. In many cases, the opposite is true.

There you have it. The Cybertruck Truck Guy is simply a "truck guy" who has years of experience with trucks and fleets. Needless to say, he loves the Tesla Cybertruck, he's not an official expert, and he's not happy that "official" experts are pushing back against electric pickup trucks.

With that said, we aren't happy that financial analysts and industry experts continue to doubt EVs either. We're also not experts. However, we've seen Tesla beat the odds many times when it comes to its performance compared to expert financial analysts' and industry experts' projections. At the same time, we've seen many EV startups and legacy automakers struggle and even fail with electric vehicles.

Tesla is much different from the rest of the automotive industry, and it doesn't follow expected "norms." In fact, it's more like a tech or software company than an automaker. Following and reporting on Tesla is much different from being an industry expert reporting on legacy brands and traditional cars. It comes as no surprise that old-school auto experts think the Cybertruck is ridiculous. Many think Tesla is ridiculous and should have failed years ago, but that hasn't been the case, at least not yet.

Over the years, we've watched amateur investors and YouTube influencers like the Cybertruck Truck Guy make predictions about Tesla and EVs with much more accuracy than many industry experts. This is because they follow the space exclusively, and they have personal experience with the cars and the company. However, this is not to say that every crazy Tesla YouTuber knows exactly what they're talking about. In many cases, the opposite is true.

We've decided to leave the decision up to you. Whether or not you consider yourself as an expert, the Cybertruck Truck Guy as an expert, or these seasoned automotive industry gurus as experts, we'd love to know what you think. Watch the video, leave us your takeaways in the comment section, and we'll look back in a few years and see who was right.

Source: Cybertruck Truck Guy (YouTube)
https://insideevs.com/features/458469/video-tesla-cybertruck-projected-sales-detroit-auto-experts/
 

Crissa

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I do appreciate how he tears down into the numbers. I don't know anything about what the numbers are relating to current trucks...

But ultimately, I think it's compelling numbers that will sell EV trucks, not looks.

-Crissa
 

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Thanks CTG for your breakdown of the interview. I don't think the CT will flop at all, but the Detroit guys do make some valid points about the total market even if they underestimate the market by half or more due to the factors you mentioned. That being said I do think 70% of reservation holders will cancel or delay. Sustained production runs over 100k units per year is highly unlikely.

1.) There will be a ton of quality competition out in 2022. (25% cancellation). The CT is really big. Many buyers will opt for the Rivian SUV due to size alone.
2.) Who knows what financial condition each of us will be in. I think a ton of people put down $100 with no idea how they would afford a $70,000 truck. I think people currently in a 5-8 year term on a $60k truck are going to be sadly disappointed in the resale/trade in value of their current rig in 2022 which will prevent them from making their purchase. (25% cancellation/delay)
3.) Lots of people will chicken out at the design. That being said people who bought it for the novel look won't think it is novel when there are 100,000 of these out on the road. (5% cancellation)
4.) I have seen post that up to 25% of reservations were out of country. Maybe non spec countries. (5% cancellation/delay)
5.) Many people have duplicate reservations, being not sure what model they really want. (5% cancellation)
6.) The robo taxi thing with multiple orders for a fleet is intriguing. If FSD isn't perfect at the time of pulling the trigger all of them may go away. (5% cancellation)
7.) I would be a little leery about owning a model coming of the line in the first 3 months. Many of these guys may chicken out and hold out for a proven model. (5% cancellation/delay)
 

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