Ford doubles Lightning production target for 2021 to... 15,000?

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Exclusive-Ford doubles Lightning production target on strong pre-launch demand -sources

August 23, 2021

DETROIT (Reuters) - Ford Motor Co has doubled its production target for the F-150 Lightning because of strong early demand for the full-sized electric pickup truck ahead of its 2022 launch, and the company plans to spend an additional $850 million to meet that target, several people and suppliers familiar with the plans said.

The No. 2 U.S. automaker is targeting annual production of more than 80,000 in 2024, up from its prior target of more than 40,000, according to the sources, who asked not to be identified. Shares of Ford rose 1.3% on Monday.

"They were pleasantly surprised by the demand for the Lightning," one of the sources said of Ford officials.

Industry observers have questioned whether individual buyers will give up their gas-powered pickups for electric models, but commercial customers are pushing for electric trucks and vans to reduce their carbon footprints.

The ramp to the new production target includes plans to build about 15,000 next year after the electric truck's spring launch and 55,000 in 2023, a second source said. Following the launch of the second generation Lightning in late 2025, the annual target is just shy of 160,000.

The increase is on top of the 50% boost Ford outlined last November, the sources said.

Driving the more optimistic targets is strong pre-launch demand for the vehicle, especially with commercial customers, the sources said.

"We are excited with customer demand for the F-150 Lightning and already have 120,000 customer reservations, and we will continue to look for ways to break constraints and meet customer demand," Ford said in a statement. The company declined to comment further.

Ford and other global automakers are racing to shift their gasoline-powered lineups to all electric power under pressure from regions like Europe and China to cut vehicle emissions. U.S. President Joe Biden has called for $174 billion to boost U.S. EV production, sales and infrastructure.

In May, Ford outlined plans to boost its spending on electrification by 2030 by more than a third to over $30 billion. Ford also announced plans that month to form a battery joint venture with South Korean battery maker SK Innovation Co that would open two plants in North America.

Ford's EV strategy is focused on leveraging its strongest brands, with the electric F-150 and Transit van joining the Mustang Mach-E SUV. The gas-powered F-150 has been the top-selling vehicle in the United States for over four decades.

Other automakers with plans to introduce electric pickups include General Motors Co and Tesla Inc, as well as startups Lordstown Motors Corp, Canoo Inc and Rivian. Ford owns a stake in Rivian.

The increased Lightning production target has some suppliers worried about the extra investment that will entail and unsure the demand for electric pick-ups will meet Ford's expectations.

"It really puts suppliers in a dicey situation if the volume doesn't come true," said one supplier executive, who asked not to be identified.

The redesigned F-150 Lightning, due in late 2025, is expected to be the first to employ Ford's new TE1 truck architecture, AutoForecast Solutions previously said. The first-generation Lightning uses a platform that is heavily derived from the standard F-150.
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They were planning on producing 7,500 electric trucks in 2021?

Maybe they believe the auto journalists who keep saying the Cybertruck is a prank.
 

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Didn't I already post this?

I had the same reaction. I thought I was being pessimistic, but apparently my guess what twice as much as they'd planned o-o

-Crissa
 
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If I say that doesn't look very state of the art do I come across as a bit cynical? I looks mostly like a big warehouse with tool stations and an automated track.
Yup, that what it looks like to me.
Working real hard and several shifts they might get the 15,000/year they claim.
Never get 100,000 a year out of that type of production line.
 

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If I say that doesn't look very state of the art do I come across as a bit cynical? I looks mostly like a big warehouse with tool stations and an automated track.

For comparison:

tesla_fremont_factory.0.jpeg
Point well taken. However the fair comparison would be showing CT‘s assembly line.

Let me start by saying that I have never met a Ford I was excited about. Years ago when I was working emergency services to help broken vehicles on the road, I had to help a disproportionately
large number of them on side of the road. That said, both Tesla and Ford aim for efficiency, Elon may recycle Space X Steel in CT and share motors to do it, Ford has a giant ICE maker so they recycle the same assembly line, parts and process they are using to produce near a million F series a year (800K in 2020). I am sure if they were starting from scratch, things would look a bit different.
People keep comparing established ICE makers with Tesla. They both make cars but making EVs is not the same for them

Tesla made only EVs in a hostile environment, it had to swim or drown. A tough choice but clear so it learned to be a fast swimmer. Ford has been traveling in a luxury yacht and just found out that is heading to a water fall, convincing the staff (who happen to have a union) to get into the inflatable raft, getting them snacks and pillows, finding the paddles …… not quite the same. They just have different kind of balls in the air.

I am more interested in what their factory looks like in 2026. If they are not just killing time trying to Enjoy the Jacuzzi one last time before going over the edge, they should be rocking it by then.
 
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Point well taken. However the fair comparison would be showing CT‘s assembly line.
I'm sure it will look quite similar to the Model 3/ Model Y assembly line in the picture. Fundamentally, Musk is not interested in dicking around with small quantities.

The Ford factory looks like something built to work at a leisurely pace. The carts are spaced so they can take their time through the warehouse, there are only 5 chargers at the end of the process, lots of manual jobs only 1 guy can work on at a time.

The scale Ford is doing this at is exactly the sort of scale Musk was talking about when he said "If we don't have big enough scale it will cost $1m per truck". Ford is clearly operating this effort at a loss, likely committing as little capital on a labor intense process because the F150 Lightning is a loss leader product.

Ford is taking a hit on each one they push out the door. From the looks of this and the volume numbers they are projecting, a fairly big hit.

Ford has been traveling in a luxury yacht and just found out that is heading to a water fall, convincing the staff (who happen to have a union) to get into the inflatable raft, getting them snacks and pillows, finding the paddles …… not quite the same. They just have different kind of balls in the air.
I love this analogy. I think right now its just starting to sink in that the cloud of mist and roaring sound they hear is in fact a waterfall. There likely is a lot of arguing in Ford HQ over exactly how far ahead the waterfall is and whether they can just make some simple modifications to their yacht to ride it out.
 
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That's what a factory looks like before you install the machines that builds the machine. It's the machine that builds the machine that builds the machine...

-Crissa
While some of that might be the case, there are an awful lot of workspaces in that assembly line that are just a set of hand-tools attached to power lines hanging from the ceiling.
 


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While some of that might be the case, there are an awful lot of workspaces in that assembly line that are just a set of hand-tools attached to power lines hanging from the ceiling.
Yeah, but that's what it looks like before you have the assembly line nailed down. All the pieces are spread out. The optimal strategy hasn't been invented yet.

The only thing different between there and Tesla is that Tesla doesn't finish the building until they need the space - and they seem willing to hire more people to mill about as they dial it in.

-Crissa
 
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Yeah, but that's what it looks like before you have the assembly line nailed down. All the pieces are spread out. The optimal strategy hasn't been invented yet.
I think they *will eventually* build a more efficient assembly line, but from the looks of this and the article text I think they are planning on running small volume production off of this assembly line.

I don't think I'd want one of these early Lightnings, it's very likely Ford is going to improve the process and the final output significantly over the next couple years.
 

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I think they *will eventually* build a more efficient assembly line, but from the looks of this and the article text I think they are planning on running small volume production off of this assembly line.

I don't think I'd want one of these early Lightnings, it's very likely Ford is going to improve the process and the final output significantly over the next couple years.
Ford is already saying they are planning to make the “next generation” Lightning; 2026 that will be out in 2025. I think the only point of 1st gen lightning is showing up at the field early and saying this is my turf so the loyalists that are having second thoughts about ICE have a Ford option. The only way they could do that is throwing a battery and a motor in what they already have. Although this may mean an inefficient EV, it does have it’s advantages when it comes to third party add ons and some do it yourself repairs for the owners. Priority for them is getting to the finish line sooner rather than crossing it in style. They know to make a real EV, at the scale they are making F150’s now, they have to do a lot of things Tesla is doing including securing a reliable source of Batteries, Chips, … and redesign for efficiency. As long as there are consumers that are towing long distance, battery density, price and charging structure being where it is now, they are not going to stop making and selling ICE F series. Right now, at the present time, they don’t see loosing a big chunk of their market share to a competing EV. I think Rivian is going to take away more from Jeep than Ford. Waterfall May be CT at full production and I think Ford is timing their Second generation Lightning to align with that. Selling too many first generation is shooting themselves in the foot. I think they will drag their foot selling Pros but I doubt they are loosing money on a $90K Lightning.

I think there is a bit of fear factor too. Ford is looking at how Bolt is taking GM down and thinking 15000 Lightnings are much more of a manageable recall than 150,000.
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