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Macgyverfever

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Since I suck so bad at making threads, I thought I'd waste some more of your time with another :D:


I was just thinking about this both in the shower and on the toilet the other day (and I'm VERY smart on the toilet) and I firmly believe (mind you I am an avid CT holder and believe in CT and think it's going to be a hit but) ~50% (50 +/- 10%) of reservationists will drop because



A) they've had enough time to drop the CT for:



1) A Rivian

2) A Hummer

3) A Ford eF150 (that's what I'm calling it now so kindly piss off [insert white teeth smiley here])

4) A Model Y with a hitch

5) A Ram/Ford/Chevy/Toyota/etc ICE truck

6) Crypto at its peak


B)Many reservationists reserved more than 1 truck because hey, what's $100? The only one who cared in my family about the deposit was my CT-hating responsible wife because she thinks the CT is hideous but she's a Honda lover (my 2 year-old on daughter on the other hand cheered me on so take that WIFE)


C) The freaken entry to play was $100

D) The configurations available might very-well change (though I admit this point is more or less moot IMO compared to the rest above)


I was going through forums on here back in the early days of reservation holders posting their positions (understandably) disappointed because they were # 100,000 200,000 etc. after 1 day, 2 days , a week since launch, and you could feel the disappointment and negativity about the whole situation.


EVEN IF reservation holders keep their reservation(s) and Tesla stands by it's original CT prices, I wouldn't be surprised if between now and mid 2023+ unemployment rate shits its dacks causing the CT to become an out-of-reach, dare I say, commodity for several more (or whatever other unexpected cost(s) have or are to come).


Submitting before I lose power -haters come at me (I gots free hugs n' fresh-squeezed lemonade for ya)..

 

jerhenderson

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Nah.... the other players have very light production capability at best ( Ford ), Rivian is a more expensive niche with even lower production ability, and the Hummer is lower still in production capability and even more expensive. none of them appeal to me simply based on I don't like the Rivian look and I won't support legacy auto for stonewalling EV. I'm waiting for my CT.
 

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*If* Tesla honors the original pricing almost all of the reasons are moot. I believe people will buy them purely because a better deal cannot be had even projecting 5 years out.
 

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I too know the brilliance of the throne room! I was, for the twillianth time, explaining that the only view of the Cybertruck that thrills me is the view from the driver's seat. I have grown to appreciate the aesthetic of the Cybertruck. But what enthralled me, and still does, is the capability and versatility of the CT. Also, I kept at my wife who drives our model 3 the most to trade in the model 3 for a 2023 model Y. Our new rig, with the tow hitch because I told her I needed it, will be here between February and April. I don't care that it will be over 6 months away, I figure the Austin factory will be ramped up by then. I think I put myself in a pickle though, because I told her we could get the model Y wrapped in a pretty jewel color that she wanted, not realizing that she then just went with the basic white. But hey, she is a really great partner.

BTW I'm keeping my reservation! If I can swing it, I'm aiming for the quadmotor too. Because, I am getting older and I was cheated out of my midlife crisis! I'm going to aim for the bullet proof Cyber Tank... These overcompensating diesel huffers won't know what to do with me.
 

charliemagpie

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i ordered 3, but I will buy one.

It was a business decision to earn passive income in the Robo taxi network.

Since then, I have put everything into TSLA to the point of far exceeding my own expectations. I even took out a loan.

Scoping the next 3 years, I decided I don't need to fuss over a couple of Robo taxi's. Maybe better to leave the funds in $TSLA anyway.

I will just get the one CT and ride into the sunset.


So in my case...2 out of 3 orders are cancelled.
 


Tenksen

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There are a fair few worldwide reservations also which are hanging in the wind like mine, UK.
Its unlikely ours will go through as focus will be US and different regs here, possibly preventing sales.

I also think price will kill worldwide orders. Chances of the original price being honoured are slim and we get shafted with cost here e.g base model 3 $44,990 in US and £47,500 in UK with £1 being worth more than $1 its a big increase in cost.

So 100% order queues will be far less. I also think Rivian is better competition than people give it credit for, its already out there for one and also a very good machine.
 

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Since I suck so bad at making threads, I thought I'd waste some more of your time with another :D:


I was just thinking about this both in the shower and on the toilet the other day (and I'm VERY smart on the toilet) and I firmly believe (mind you I am an avid CT holder and believe in CT and think it's going to be a hit but) ~50% (50 +/- 10%) of reservationists will drop because



A) they've had enough time to drop the CT for:



1) A Rivian

2) A Hummer

3) A Ford eF150 (that's what I'm calling it now so kindly piss off [insert white teeth smiley here])

4) A Model Y with a hitch

5) A Ram/Ford/Chevy/Toyota/etc ICE truck

6) Crypto at its peak


B)Many reservationists reserved more than 1 truck because hey, what's $100? The only one who cared in my family about the deposit was my CT-hating responsible wife because she thinks the CT is hideous but she's a Honda lover (my 2 year-old on daughter on the other hand cheered me on so take that WIFE)


C) The freaken entry to play was $100

D) The configurations available might very-well change (though I admit this point is more or less moot IMO compared to the rest above)


I was going through forums on here back in the early days of reservation holders posting their positions (understandably) disappointed because they were # 100,000 200,000 etc. after 1 day, 2 days , a week since launch, and you could feel the disappointment and negativity about the whole situation.


EVEN IF reservation holders keep their reservation(s) and Tesla stands by it's original CT prices, I wouldn't be surprised if between now and mid 2023+ unemployment rate shits its dacks causing the CT to become an out-of-reach, dare I say, commodity for several more (or whatever other unexpected cost(s) have or are to come).


Submitting before I lose power -haters come at me (I gots free hugs n' fresh-squeezed lemonade for ya)..
“Thou dost throne too much”

No body drops a $100 RN Cybertruck for any “other” BEV than a Tesla.

Four reasons:
BEV demand exceeds supply
Tesla Charger Network exceeds all, better, more and faster
Cybertruck is store of value
Cybertrucks are medium of exchange

Gas prices alone drive all reason to not drop a CT RN#.
Cybertruck is the replacement for ICE pickup buyers
Cybertruck is the replacement for ICE soccer mom buyers
Cybertruck is the BEST replacement for OVERLAND dad buyers
Cybertruck is the ONLY Armageddon truck
Cybertruck is THE ONLY truck that is cyber
 
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Macgyverfever

Macgyverfever

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“Thou dost throne too much”

No body drops a $100 RN Cybertruck for any “other” BEV than a Tesla.

Four reasons:
BEV demand exceeds supply
Tesla Charger Network exceeds all, better, more and faster
Cybertruck is store of value
Cybertrucks are medium of exchange

Gas prices alone drive all reason to not drop a CT RN#.
Cybertruck is the replacement for ICE pickup buyers
Cybertruck is the replacement for ICE soccer mom buyers
Cybertruck is the BEST replacement for OVERLAND dad buyers
Cybertruck is the ONLY Armageddon truck
Cybertruck is THE ONLY truck that is cyber
I disagree with one point.. one can never throne too much... :cool: (yes, I sometimes wear shades whilest on the toilet).

Seriously, I think the aforementioned points I made justify expectations of a significant drop in pre-orders compared to the roughly 12% drop of model 3 pre-orders (a car with a more serious commitment of $2500 deposit which released within a year and had a $7500 tax credit); to what extent is anyone's guess (and whether this occurs more at the beginning, middle, or end of the line), but in the view-point of Elon, "numbers are inconsequential" when at least referring to M3 pre-orders. Therefore, a drop to some degree should be expected.
 

GnarlyDudeLive

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i ordered 3, but I will buy one.

It was a business decision to earn passive income in the Robo taxi network.

Since then, I have put everything into TSLA to the point of far exceeding my own expectations. I even took out a loan.

Scoping the next 3 years, I decided I don't need to fuss over a couple of Robo taxi's. Maybe better to leave the funds in $TSLA anyway.

I will just get the one CT and ride into the sunset.


So in my case...2 out of 3 orders are cancelled.
Once you see what a AVAILABLE CT will sell for on the open market, your plan could very well change plans. Sell stock, purchase CT, sell extra CT(s) for profit, repurchase even more stock.
 

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Even with a 50% drop in pre orders the CT will have more order requests than the F150L, Rivian and GM combined.

When they start building the CT it'll probably follow the ramp speed of the Austin MY which just crossed 1000 per week after a few months. The others can only wish for that kind of production after a year of building.
 


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Macgyverfever

Macgyverfever

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Even with a 50% drop in pre orders the CT will have more order requests than the F150L, Rivian and GM combined.

When they start building the CT it'll probably follow the ramp speed of the Austin MY which just crossed 1000 per week after a few months. The others can only wish for that kind of production after a year of building.
Oh I totally agree 👍
 

Regenshire

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I am of the opinion that for the next few years every electric truck produced will find a buyer simply due to the demand for electric trucks. The Rivians, Fords, GMCs, ect will not materially dent the demand for the Cybertruck at launch.

Yes, there will be some individuals who had put down money on every EV truck when they were each announced and might have gotten their Rivian or Lightning because of that, but that is a very small subset of EV enthusiasts. Many of these buyers might trade out their vehicles as new ones come to market anyways because they are enthusiasts.

Once manufacturing starts meeting the demand of electric trucks across the industry, that is when actual competition will occur between the various platforms and we will see what the market prefers, at that point specs and cost will probably be the most important factors.

Due to manufacturing/supply train limitations, being the first to have a truck on the market barely matters outside of press/marketing. It doesn't matter that Rivian and Ford have an EV truck on the market "right now" since I can't realistically get one before I could likely get a Cybertruck.
 
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Jhodgesatmb

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Tesla is probably assuming that a certain percentage of reservations will cancel no matter what, and they have the numbers from the Model S, Model X, Model 3, and Model Y to back them up. Yes, with the CT the reservation fee was less than for the other models and that will play into it. It would not surprise me if 30+% of the reservations are dropped (for whatever reason). Probably more as you move down the reservation position line.

I suspect that very few are really focused on the functional features of the Cybertruck as a deciding factor, or on the advantages that Tesla brings to the car/truck market. Any of these might see the other BET (battery electric trucks) as viable options. Those that do consider functionality and overall Tesla advantage might still reorder their priorities as time stretches out. For example, when I originally reserved there were 4 primary motivations: (1) stainless body, (2) 3mm skin, (3) 500-mile range, and (4) cargo/towing capability. So we have already gone another year beyond what I had hoped for and two of these features can now be met by other BETs (4) or might not matter in terms of my age and expected truck lifetime (1). On the other hand, Tesla has introduced new functional features that are attractive to me.

It continues to be a highly-dynamic situation for everyone.
 

thetuxcat

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Since I suck so bad at making threads, I thought I'd waste some more of your time with another :D:


I was just thinking about this both in the shower and on the toilet the other day (and I'm VERY smart on the toilet) and I firmly believe (mind you I am an avid CT holder and believe in CT and think it's going to be a hit but) ~50% (50 +/- 10%) of reservationists will drop because



A) they've had enough time to drop the CT for:



1) A Rivian

2) A Hummer

3) A Ford eF150 (that's what I'm calling it now so kindly piss off [insert white teeth smiley here])

4) A Model Y with a hitch

5) A Ram/Ford/Chevy/Toyota/etc ICE truck

6) Crypto at its peak


B)Many reservationists reserved more than 1 truck because hey, what's $100? The only one who cared in my family about the deposit was my CT-hating responsible wife because she thinks the CT is hideous but she's a Honda lover (my 2 year-old on daughter on the other hand cheered me on so take that WIFE)


C) The freaken entry to play was $100

D) The configurations available might very-well change (though I admit this point is more or less moot IMO compared to the rest above)


I was going through forums on here back in the early days of reservation holders posting their positions (understandably) disappointed because they were # 100,000 200,000 etc. after 1 day, 2 days , a week since launch, and you could feel the disappointment and negativity about the whole situation.


EVEN IF reservation holders keep their reservation(s) and Tesla stands by it's original CT prices, I wouldn't be surprised if between now and mid 2023+ unemployment rate shits its dacks causing the CT to become an out-of-reach, dare I say, commodity for several more (or whatever other unexpected cost(s) have or are to come).


Submitting before I lose power -haters come at me (I gots free hugs n' fresh-squeezed lemonade for ya)..
I'm holding onto my reservation, the same as I'm holding onto mt Bitcoin!
 
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Macgyverfever

Macgyverfever

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You and me both!

 

 
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