Hardware 4 being introduced with the Cybertruck

Tinker71

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So why would you need to get out of $tsla? If it is an age of plenty why do you need the money?
I think if you were to reinvest in real estate the government would have a harder time redistributing it than cash wealth. Your primary residence anyway. Or live large during the transition.

I actually am a pessimist. Human nature won't let it happen. We like a pecking order.
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Dids

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I think if you were to reinvest in real estate the government would have a harder time redistributing it than cash wealth. Your primary residence anyway. Or live large during the transition.

I actually am a pessimist. Human nature won't let it happen. We like a pecking order.
In the age of plenty that will happen with removing labor constraint you will be living large without money. Reasonably conspicuous consumption will disappear since it doesn't impart a social status. Similar to how very white skin as a social status disappeared with industrial age and tan skin became desirable. With industrial farming and refrigerated food fat bodies became unattractive while in food scarce eras they were desirable.
There will always be shortages / things that are more expensive than swap items, but without labor overall availability will increase and prices decrease.
After the maturity of the industrial age pure capitalism failed as an economic model (anti trust legislation) and since the great depression socialism as predicted by Marx has been the primary functional economic model. Americans hate to call it socialism and like to pretend it is capitalism but it isn't.
So I predict that basic income will be standardized... Outside of earned income tax credit, home mortgage subsidies, medical subsidies, food subsidies, school subsidies, fuel subsidies that every working American already gets. If a person cannot sell their labor then they are unemployable they are already eligible for social security.
So Elon is right, a lobor robot will change everything, in fact they already have.
 

Tinker71

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In the age of plenty that will happen with removing labor constraint you will be living large without money. Reasonably conspicuous consumption will disappear since it doesn't impart a social status. Similar to how very white skin as a social status disappeared with industrial age and tan skin became desirable. With industrial farming and refrigerated food fat bodies became unattractive while in food scarce eras they were desirable.
There will always be shortages / things that are more expensive than swap items, but without labor overall availability will increase and prices decrease.
After the maturity of the industrial age pure capitalism failed as an economic model (anti trust legislation) and since the great depression socialism as predicted by Marx has been the primary functional economic model. Americans hate to call it socialism and like to pretend it is capitalism but it isn't.
So I predict that basic income will be standardized... Outside of earned income tax credit, home mortgage subsidies, medical subsidies, food subsidies, school subsidies, fuel subsidies that every working American already gets. If a person cannot sell their labor then they are unemployable they are already eligible for social security.
So Elon is right, a lobor robot will change everything, in fact they already have.
Exactly, basic income will be stabilized. Call it 60% of the population. They might live comfortably but will attempt to differentiate themselves. The other 40% might be talented or have residual wealth from before the shift. They will definitely try to differentiate themselves. I don't see ownership in corporations going away completely. These folks will get dividends which will allow them perks over and above the rift raft.
 

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Yep let’s get rid of Radar last year, now ultrasonic sensors in the future and only go to cameras?! Two highly proven technologies that work traded for this faux camera system that still is in testing phase and unproven. hmm?
See my Tesla stock crashing again.

Tesla announces it’s moving away from ultrasonic sensors in favor of ‘Tesla Vision’

Fred Lambert
- Oct. 4th 2022 1:39 pm PT

@FredericLambert
They aren't highly proven; there are no autonomous systems which rely on them only.

-Crissa
 
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Dids

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Yep let’s get rid of Radar last year, now ultrasonic sensors in the future and only go to cameras?! Two highly proven technologies that work traded for this faux camera system that still is in testing phase and unproven. hmm?
See my Tesla stock crashing again.

Tesla announces it’s moving away from ultrasonic sensors in favor of ‘Tesla Vision’

Fred Lambert
- Oct. 4th 2022 1:39 pm PT

@FredericLambert
You own stock in a company that's so stupid it won't do what everyone else is doing?
 


electricAK

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I think this thread takes the cake for most philosophical. Absolutely loving it. And kudos to Musk for stimulating such discussion. I don't agree with all of what I read here today, but a lot of it is good food for thought.

And JBee absolutely nailed it! Whatever "it" is. Life in general, I guess. This advice is worth repeating:

Where you live. What you own. What you can do with what you own. Who you do what with where you are. You, family, friends, community, country, world. In that order of change.

Act within the realms that you can have influence. Promote others to do the same in theirs.

No matter what you do in life you have to do it somewhere. Pick a good spot that allows you to follow your dreams and then put in the hard work to make it so. Change costs effort, but the cost of not changing in time, will cost more.

Practically, this means to look for ways to be self-reliant and not be dependent on the transactions of money for living. This will result in less funneling of power through money to the top and a more equal base, and give you some certainty and confidence for your existence, as it will also for others.

Remember the only real currency is time. You can only spend it once, so be prudent to spend it on the right things, because you will never be getting it back. Then ask; is my work meaningful, or just a means to an end? Act accordingly.
 

JBee

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Well in that case lets add some more. :)

It might well be that we also have to abandon some of our value structures to get there, in particular currency. The first thing that we desperately need to do is disassociate currency with value at all, and correct our valuation systems accordingly.

As Dids pointed out, in a world of plenty there is no need to sell TSLA to get currency in the first place.

This goes even further, in that I believe it's possible to even get rid of currency, or at least the current form of it, because in a future of plenty, currency itself becomes irrelevant to allocate resources amongst consumers of products and services.

Consider Robotaxi for a moment: If the cost for moving something or someone is so low, like they estimate around the $0.10c mile, and average commute in LA is 10 miles so $1, then at some point it doesn't actually make sense to charge for it directly to the consumer via a universal income. The exchange of currency to facilitate the transfer of good and services becomes less and less important, as more abundance of products and services area available.

In essence currency is the lubrication of supply to meet demand, and as such it is also being used as a buffer (like a battery between solar and house), to incentivize the increase in production and the decrease of demand, by changing pricing signals of products and services.

Consider that no-one needs or wants currency directly, rather only what it can do, buy or make.

Now if there is abundance, and supply is no longer restricted, then there is no reason for currency to buffer, or even lubricate supply and demand.

As EM puts it, what is the economy then at all?

There is one more thing to consider here that will impact these changes and that is the distribution and diversification of manufacturing and supply of products and services.

Look at the share economy, Uber/AirBnB/Amazon/Ebay/FB market etc, and the ability for the population to organise the supply of products and services. A lot of a manufacturing and services need not be vertically integrated into one location, rather only into the same structure for organization. So not every product needs to come out of a single robotized line in a single location, looked after and designed by one group. Rather that robotic assistance to achieve abundance can be incorporated into every existing supply chain, in multiple locations and run by multiple groups. (P.S. This "self-organization" could come in the form of app "X")

Optimus achieves this simply by replicating the function and capability of the existing human workforce, by emulating the human body and mechanical function, to manipulate the environment around itself. It can autonomously operate within the same space we can operate in, and need not be subjugated to a industrial production line on a factory floor.

This is a fundamental difference to any other form of automation, in that it not only can increase abundance, but it also gives everyone of us the ability, that have control of a Optimus, to achieve greater productivity and service with little to no resource and service cost. This means that we individually will have the ability to magnify our own capability and will, resulting in more equitable distribution of economic activity, which in turn will reduce a dependence on currency in the first place.

Imagine if Optimus runs 24 hrs, tends your food garden, your house construction and maintenance, household chores, the community park, and then goes to work, whatever needs to be done elsewhere, at night while you sleep and does all of this "unpaid". Currency becomes redundant.

That is also why we need to formulate new methods of resource allocation, as doing it for the reason of currency profit will be a thing of the past, and not have any meaningful impact on our lives in a time of abundance.

Once again the extent of disruption should not be underestimated.
 
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Tinker71

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Well in that case lets add some more. :)

It might well be that we also have to abandon some of our value structures to get there, in particular currency. The first thing that we desperately need to do is disassociate currency with value at all, and correct our valuation systems accordingly.

As Dids pointed out, in a world of plenty there is no need to sell TSLA to get currency in the first place.

This goes even further, in that I believe it's possible to even get rid of currency, or at least the current form of it, because in a future of plenty, currency itself becomes irrelevant to allocate resources amongst consumers of products and services.

Consider Robotaxi for a moment: If the cost for moving something or someone is so low, like they estimate around the $0.10c mile, and average commute in LA is 10 miles so $1, then at some point it doesn't actually make sense to charge for it directly to the consumer via a universal income. The exchange of currency to facilitate the transfer of good and services becomes less and less important, as more abundance of products and services area available.

In essence currency is the lubrication of supply to meet demand, and as such it is also being used as a buffer (like a battery between solar and house), to incentivize the increase in production and the decrease of demand, by changing pricing signals of products and services.

Consider that no-one needs or wants currency directly, rather only what it can do, buy or make.

Now if there is abundance, and supply is no longer restricted, then there is no reason for currency to buffer, or even lubricate supply and demand.

As EM puts it, what is the economy then at all?

There is one more thing to consider here that will impact these changes and that is the distribution and diversification of manufacturing and supply of products and services.

Look at the share economy, Uber/AirBnB/Amazon/Ebay/FB market etc, and the ability for the population to organise the supply of products and services. A lot of a manufacturing and services need not be vertically integrated into one location, rather only into the same structure for organization. So not every product needs to come out of a single robotized line in a single location, looked after and designed by one group. Rather that robotic assistance to achieve abundance can be incorporated into every existing supply chain, in multiple locations and run by multiple groups. (P.S. This "self-organization" could come in the form of app "X")

Optimus achieves this simply by replicating the function and capability of the existing human workforce, by emulating the human body and mechanical function, to manipulate the environment around itself. It can autonomously operate within the same space we can operate in, and need not be subjugated to a industrial production line on a factory floor.

This is a fundamental difference to any other form of automation, in that it not only can increase abundance, but it also gives everyone of us, that have control of a Optimus, to achieve greater productivity and service with little to no resource and service cost. This means that we will have the ability to magnify our own capability and will, resulting in more equitable distribution of economic activity, which in turn will reduce a dependence on currency in the first place.

Imagine if Optimus runs 24 hrs, tends your food garden, your house construction and maintenance, household chores, the community park, and then goes to work, whatever needs to be done elsewhere, at night while you sleep and does all of this "unpaid". Currency becomes redundant.

That is also why we need to formulate new methods of resource allocation, as doing it for the reason of currency profit will be a thing of the past, and not have any meaningful impact on our lives in a time of abundance.

Once again the extent of disruption should not be underestimated.
I would love a society without homelessness and hunger. Optimus may solve the labor shortage, which is a little weird to think about. Labor only became scarce after Covid. Hmmm. There are a lot of problems with this vision.

1.) I believe in contrast. Pleasure and pain. Sacrifice and reward. Work and free time. So all the boring jobs are done by robots and everyone not on the cutting edge is on universal income. What are all these people going to do with their free time? Socialize? Yoga? Many things requires materials and energy and space. This is where the VR chair comes in :(

2.) I am a sci fi freak. Oftentimes currency is energy. I am fairly sure we will go with some sort of crypto currency someday. 1 winner and 100s of looser I guess, or a world bank creates a cypto currently and none of the current players exist?

I just don't see goods and services becoming so cheap we don't have to pay for it. Sure a micro hotel with a meal bar might be free, but a synthetic lobster dinner on a rooftop? We will need currency plus bartering.

3.) The transition. It will be fast or slow. If it is slow we will see massive unemployment and unrest before the switch then it will be incremental. The only way it can be fast is if we somehow convince 90% of the population that it is the way. We can't even get people to take a COVID shot for the greater good. Still I see a little hope with California's plan for fast food workers.

4.) Distribution is one of the first things I could foresee becoming free (built in universal income). Amazon is pretty efficient, but I still see 20 last mile delivery services in my neighborhood each day. It could be 3X more efficient if these players were combined as one. Less traffic and faster delivery.
 

JBee

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I would love a society without homelessness and hunger. Optimus may solve the labor shortage, which is a little weird to think about. Labor only became scarce after Covid. Hmmm. There are a lot of problems with this vision.

1.) I believe in contrast. Pleasure and pain. Sacrifice and reward. Work and free time. So all the boring jobs are done by robots and everyone not on the cutting edge is on universal income. What are all these people going to do with their free time? Socialize? Yoga? Many things requires materials and energy and space. This is where the VR chair comes in :(

2.) I am a sci fi freak. Oftentimes currency is energy. I am fairly sure we will go with some sort of crypto currency someday. 1 winner and 100s of looser I guess, or a world bank creates a cypto currently and none of the current players exist?

I just don't see goods and services becoming so cheap we don't have to pay for it. Sure a micro hotel with a meal bar might be free, but a synthetic lobster dinner on a rooftop? We will need currency plus bartering.

3.) The transition. It will be fast or slow. If it is slow we will see massive unemployment and unrest before the switch then it will be incremental. The only way it can be fast is if we somehow convince 90% of the population that it is the way. We can't even get people to take a COVID shot for the greater good. Still I see a little hope with California's plan for fast food workers.

4.) Distribution is one of the first things I could foresee becoming free (built in universal income). Amazon is pretty efficient, but I still see 20 last mile delivery services in my neighborhood each day. It could be 3X more efficient if these players were combined as one. Less traffic and faster delivery.
VR isn't the solution to everything... 😎

When I said distribution I did not mean to transport goods and services, I meant to have lots of different people in different places produce for and service their local community. That changes the whole behavior, so that we're not just bags of bones being drip fed whilst watching Matrix reruns, rather that we are all productive and inclusive, but unburdened citizens of a community.

There are definitely challenges with any change, but it is essential we do not force the change to be all the same everywhere, not even at the same time. We need embrace diversity in all sectors, all vision, all goals, all dreams and distill the best ones out of them for others to pursue out of their own conviction, that they have worked, and are not seriously flawed.

The key to this, is understanding that we can only do the best we can, on what we know now.
We can't act on what we don't know yet. So we need to rapidly reiterate to reach our goals, and not be scared to fail here and there along the way, and if we do we get up and try it another way until we make progress on our goals. This applies personally, as well as to the many.

So the question becomes how do we get from here, not yet knowing enough to do it the right way? There is most definitely more than one way, but we need to provide a platform from which we can try them until we succeed. We all need a leg up to start, and with the simple things like housing, food, transport, energy, indoor plumbing we end up with 70% of our costs solved, which leaves us a big time budget to pursue more meaningful goals. We will be super busy populating the solar system at first, then who knows where we will go. By then we might have figured some more stuff out to continue, we just can't stay like we are. Life is motion. Wherever it is we'll need a place to do something, so buy lots on Mars and Moon...who knows you might need to move there one day to eat lobster. :)

1) A universal income would be currency, and currency can and should be redundant in a world of excess. There's no need to universal income if living standards are high by default in the community, and most things you can do for free. What we need is a way to decide for resource allocation (instead of currency based decisions) for community/state/country based projects and goals. I'll stick crypto in here as well, it's also just currency, I do not distinguish between them. In general cryto is no better than fiat, and is a ponzi scheme scam, the only interesting thing with it is blockchain and creating a secure way to contract and vote on public resource allocation.

2) I agree Scifi is fun, but a lot of it is repetitive ideas, and lots of fearmongering. Humans like a good ol' fireside ghost story before bed. What we call entertainment now used to be defined as horror, we've been desensitized. Also Hollywood n Co is another media device for ideological distribution and influence. Some of it is ok, but like always keep your BS filter on too. As with all things there will be some things you can't have all the time, and some things you will have too much of, there will remain satisfaction and desire. But all things in good time, as the public chooses policy to support things they deem important, or you endeavor individually to spawn lobster from a Optimus tendered bio-tank in your backyard, if such is your passion.

3) The "transition" as I mentioned previously will happen over a long period of decades, and it will happen location by location, one after the other and not all at once. It will be a combination of building new habitats and renovating old ones as they fail or wear out. The difference is that with each iteration intentional progress will be made, but the relevance of currency in the decision making progress will diminish gradually to zero, as we learn to prioritize our goals over our immediate needs.

4) Distribution in the form of product transport, and even personal transport will be only a fraction of what it is now as systems improve, and we master the reforming of resources, or piles of atoms, into the products that build the products we need.

You need to see this development as a gradual one, where progress is made step by step. Cave drawings, tanned hides, scribes, paper, printing press, radio, B&W TV, Colour TV, PC, mobile phone, neuralink. You need to have each stepping stone so you can reach the next. Such is the nature of the program.
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