I think if you were to reinvest in real estate the government would have a harder time redistributing it than cash wealth. Your primary residence anyway. Or live large during the transition.
In the age of plenty that will happen with removing labor constraint you will be living large without money. Reasonably conspicuous consumption will disappear since it doesn't impart a social status. Similar to how very white skin as a social status disappeared with industrial age and tan skin became desirable. With industrial farming and refrigerated food fat bodies became unattractive while in food scarce eras they were desirable.
Exactly, basic income will be stabilized. Call it 60% of the population. They might live comfortably but will attempt to differentiate themselves. The other 40% might be talented or have residual wealth from before the shift. They will definitely try to differentiate themselves. I don't see ownership in corporations going away completely. These folks will get dividends which will allow them perks over and above the rift raft.
They aren't highly proven; there are no autonomous systems which rely on them only.
You own stock in a company that's so stupid it won't do what everyone else is doing?
I would love a society without homelessness and hunger. Optimus may solve the labor shortage, which is a little weird to think about. Labor only became scarce after Covid. Hmmm. There are a lot of problems with this vision.Well in that case lets add some more.
It might well be that we also have to abandon some of our value structures to get there, in particular currency. The first thing that we desperately need to do is disassociate currency with value at all, and correct our valuation systems accordingly.
As Dids pointed out, in a world of plenty there is no need to sell TSLA to get currency in the first place.
This goes even further, in that I believe it's possible to even get rid of currency, or at least the current form of it, because in a future of plenty, currency itself becomes irrelevant to allocate resources amongst consumers of products and services.
Consider Robotaxi for a moment: If the cost for moving something or someone is so low, like they estimate around the $0.10c mile, and average commute in LA is 10 miles so $1, then at some point it doesn't actually make sense to charge for it directly to the consumer via a universal income. The exchange of currency to facilitate the transfer of good and services becomes less and less important, as more abundance of products and services area available.
In essence currency is the lubrication of supply to meet demand, and as such it is also being used as a buffer (like a battery between solar and house), to incentivize the increase in production and the decrease of demand, by changing pricing signals of products and services.
Consider that no-one needs or wants currency directly, rather only what it can do, buy or make.
Now if there is abundance, and supply is no longer restricted, then there is no reason for currency to buffer, or even lubricate supply and demand.
As EM puts it, what is the economy then at all?
There is one more thing to consider here that will impact these changes and that is the distribution and diversification of manufacturing and supply of products and services.
Look at the share economy, Uber/AirBnB/Amazon/Ebay/FB market etc, and the ability for the population to organise the supply of products and services. A lot of a manufacturing and services need not be vertically integrated into one location, rather only into the same structure for organization. So not every product needs to come out of a single robotized line in a single location, looked after and designed by one group. Rather that robotic assistance to achieve abundance can be incorporated into every existing supply chain, in multiple locations and run by multiple groups. (P.S. This "self-organization" could come in the form of app "X")
Optimus achieves this simply by replicating the function and capability of the existing human workforce, by emulating the human body and mechanical function, to manipulate the environment around itself. It can autonomously operate within the same space we can operate in, and need not be subjugated to a industrial production line on a factory floor.
This is a fundamental difference to any other form of automation, in that it not only can increase abundance, but it also gives everyone of us, that have control of a Optimus, to achieve greater productivity and service with little to no resource and service cost. This means that we will have the ability to magnify our own capability and will, resulting in more equitable distribution of economic activity, which in turn will reduce a dependence on currency in the first place.
Imagine if Optimus runs 24 hrs, tends your food garden, your house construction and maintenance, household chores, the community park, and then goes to work, whatever needs to be done elsewhere, at night while you sleep and does all of this "unpaid". Currency becomes redundant.
That is also why we need to formulate new methods of resource allocation, as doing it for the reason of currency profit will be a thing of the past, and not have any meaningful impact on our lives in a time of abundance.
Once again the extent of disruption should not be underestimated.
VR isn't the solution to everything...I would love a society without homelessness and hunger. Optimus may solve the labor shortage, which is a little weird to think about. Labor only became scarce after Covid. Hmmm. There are a lot of problems with this vision.
1.) I believe in contrast. Pleasure and pain. Sacrifice and reward. Work and free time. So all the boring jobs are done by robots and everyone not on the cutting edge is on universal income. What are all these people going to do with their free time? Socialize? Yoga? Many things requires materials and energy and space. This is where the VR chair comes in
2.) I am a sci fi freak. Oftentimes currency is energy. I am fairly sure we will go with some sort of crypto currency someday. 1 winner and 100s of looser I guess, or a world bank creates a cypto currently and none of the current players exist?
I just don't see goods and services becoming so cheap we don't have to pay for it. Sure a micro hotel with a meal bar might be free, but a synthetic lobster dinner on a rooftop? We will need currency plus bartering.
3.) The transition. It will be fast or slow. If it is slow we will see massive unemployment and unrest before the switch then it will be incremental. The only way it can be fast is if we somehow convince 90% of the population that it is the way. We can't even get people to take a COVID shot for the greater good. Still I see a little hope with California's plan for fast food workers.
4.) Distribution is one of the first things I could foresee becoming free (built in universal income). Amazon is pretty efficient, but I still see 20 last mile delivery services in my neighborhood each day. It could be 3X more efficient if these players were combined as one. Less traffic and faster delivery.
