How do you think further deliveries will happen?

192.168.1.1

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How do you all think the deliveries will be handled going forward from the delivery event?

few things on my mind:

Mass email to "Next 5,000" reservation holders?

or

individual emails to reservation holders when their truck is ready?

Would we pick up at the local dealer? or pick up in Texas?

Curious about the above for the people that have ordered teslas in the past and has knowledge of the process.
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mercer2

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As a minute one res holder, I'm confident that I won't see or hear anything from Tesla until February to March
I’m hoping they make a couple of hundred units before eoy.

you being a minute res holder should get yours then.
 

cvalue13

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How do you all think the deliveries will be handled going forward from the delivery event?

few things on my mind:

Mass email to "Next 5,000" reservation holders?

or

individual emails to reservation holders when their truck is ready?

Would we pick up at the local dealer? or pick up in Texas?

Curious about the above for the people that have ordered teslas in the past and has knowledge of the process.

Need to distinguish between these 1,000 Foundation limited edition series they're currently building and selling, vs when they make it to actual "Production" (e.g., Job#1 of retail spec'd unit offered to gen pop on an arms-length basis).

FOUNDATION SERIES:

These Foundation series are essentially marketing units, where regs and corporate financials are concerned, which means Tesla can 'sell' them, but not trigger the various regulatory and corporate consequences of begining true production.​
The Foundation units units will be offered only to people that Telsa 'hand selects.' The delivery event units were primarily to employees, VIPs, and conceivably some reservation holders that were, e.g., reservation #1 and have e.g., bought 2 each of every prior Tesla going back to the original roadster. In any event, to receive one of these first ~20-30 Foundation units, you're probably on extra unique sales terms, NDAs, etc., all aside from paying a premium 'special edition' price.​
The next ~970ish Foundation units would similarly go to hand-selected people (e.g., Tesla isn't, and probably can't, simply offer them to the general public without going afoul of optics regarding retail sales). But here, they likely go a bit deeper into the 'special people' pool, perhaps less onerous NDA-like terms, but still the premium limited-edition pricing.​
Based on what we know about current production numbers, it could take Tesla several more months to get through building these first 1,000 foundation units. They may only get through building say 150-200 of these Foundation units in 2023.​


TRUE PRODUCTION
Only after all that, when they're squarely into 2024, would true 'Production' begin. Beginning production, and making the initial offer of true arms-length retail offers to the general public, triggers various corporate financial consequences on Tesla's balance sheets.​
Personally, I would be equally surprised if true production begins in Q1 as if it instead begins in Q2.​
In part because I think the xwitter verse of fanboi's have gone way out over their ski's in terms of hyping expectations of how close Tesla is to beginning true production. Some have been exclaiming production started back in July, and now they're saying production has started now-ish, and bellowing about how configuration will open any minute now and Tesla may deliver 1,000 retail units before year end.​
It's asinine.​
And to think it's asinine has nothing to do with under-estimating Tesla. This is standard pre-production start up sort of pace even for Tesla, much less very fast for any other OEM (for better and for worse). In the past, it's been as much as 4 months between a Tesla model's delivery event and start of true production - and those models didn't have 1,000 Foundation units to get through first.​
This sort of pragmatism about how long it could be until first production comes not from under-estimating Tesla, but instead from appreciating just how much work Tesla has done and still has to do before it can begin pumping out the volume of retail units needed to make sense for beginning production. In other words, in my view, this pragmatism is the view that *actually* gives Tesla it's due regarding how much it is accomplishing in a short period of time.​
Last thought on something touched on above: while it's possible Tesla could begin retail sales after only a slow drip of retail spec'd units are being produced, that would be unperformable all-things-considered. Generally, more preferrable would be to have a sufficient stock built up, and production to have reached some min threshold of run rate, before beginning retail sales. The reason, in fine, is that the moment Tesla begins retail sales all the historical production expenses of the Cybertruck (e.g., building the line, etc.) will hit Tesla's balance sheet as a negative number. During whatever calendar quarter that occurs, you want to be able to produce and deliver enough units to both (A) bring in revenue from unit sales that somewhat offset the balance sheet with, and (B) on that next quarterly call say "the numbers look like they do because we realized production on the balance sheet, but look how many of these we're selling already, so we'll offset and recoup that figure soon"​


TAKING THE ABOVE DISTINCTION INTO ACCOUNT:

So, in 2023 (and beyond the delivery event Foundation units), some small group of folks will get to purchase a Foundation unit, but those will be hand-selected folks who are able and willing to purchase the Foundation units at the Foundation premium pricing (~$20K premium over normal retail prices). And into early 2024, the rest of these 1,000 folks will get to configure and purchase their special editions.​
But as for us plebians, it is likely several months before retail deliveries begin - even if Tesla opens up configuration sooner.​
It's Tesla, so it's always possible they have some countervailing reasons to begin sooner than should be expected - or trickle out only a few retail units before production has ramped to sufficient volumes.​
But in terms of expectation-setting, folks should be looking to be happily surprised for earlier retail deliveries, as opposed to buying into the xwitter claptrap about retail deliveries starting a week ago.​
 


Regenshire

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How do you all think the deliveries will be handled going forward from the delivery event?

few things on my mind:

Mass email to "Next 5,000" reservation holders?

or

individual emails to reservation holders when their truck is ready?

Would we pick up at the local dealer? or pick up in Texas?

Curious about the above for the people that have ordered teslas in the past and has knowledge of the process.
Based on my experience receiving my Model 3 and of Tesla in general, my expectation is as follows:
  • Tesla will produce the Foundation Series vehicles first, 1000 in total. This could take several months.
  • As the Foundation Series production is coming to a close Tesla will send out a batch configuration email to early reservation holders in the Unites States. This batch will likely be somewhat small, probably 1,000 to 5,000 reservation holders.
    • Those of us invited will receive an email with a link to place an order from available configurations for the Cybertruck. This will be account locked to your account, so you will need to login with the same email as the reservation was made under.
    • The order page will look similiar to the ones for the other Tesla models, allowing you to choose from the Cybertruck trim(s) and options that are currently available to configure. This will not include future trims like RWD. Prices will be listed.
    • You will need to place a non-refundable down-payment at this time, likely in the amount of $2500.
    • You will receive a Motor Vehicle Purchase Agreement once you place your order
  • You will then receive a Prepare for Delivery email that has a list of steps you need to complete for your order before delivery. This will include selecting a Delivery Location. The Delivery Location will likely be required to be a Tesla Service/Delivery Center.
  • You will wait a while as Telsa moves through the production queue until they have a VIN to assign to your account.
  • At this point a Tesla Sales Advisor will contact you to coordinate specific dates and at that point you will be required to figure out your financing/ect for the vehicle. If you are getting a loan you will need to provide documentation regarding the loan, ect, and do some coordination between the bank/credit union and Tesla.
  • Delivery Date - Once the delivery date arrives, assuming no issues on Tesla's end (there were issues with my Model 3 delivery), you show up and get your new vehicle. You of course need to make sure you pay for it at this time, that your loan is funded, ect.
When I did this in 2018 for my Model 3, it was a bit of an aggravating experience due to my car not being at the delivery center in time and being informed last minute that it wasn't there. In 2018 the nearest delivery center to me was across the state so I was flying in to Seattle to pick it up. So that last part was full of frustration for me, but it was all worth it in the end when I picked up the car and drove it home across the state.

That is my expectation, but Tesla changes stuff sometimes, so its not guaranteed it will work this way. Everything is subject to change. Also, how fast this occurs is impossible to know with how manufacturing ramps work. For the Model 3 they did a delivery event in Summer of 2017 but volume of deliveries was very small until Spring of 2018 when they finally began clearing out major hurdles in the line. At that point they began fulfilling orders at a brisk clip.
 

Arctic_White

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Need to distinguish between these 1,000 Foundation limited edition series they're currently building and selling, vs when they make it to actual "Production" (e.g., Job#1 of retail spec'd unit offered to gen pop on an arms-length basis).

FOUNDATION SERIES:

These Foundation series are essentially marketing units, where regs and corporate financials are concerned, which means Tesla can 'sell' them, but not trigger the various regulatory and corporate consequences of begining true production.​
The Foundation units units will be offered only to people that Telsa 'hand selects.' The delivery event units were primarily to employees, VIPs, and conceivably some reservation holders that were, e.g., reservation #1 and have e.g., bought 2 each of every prior Tesla going back to the original roadster. In any event, to receive one of these first ~20-30 Foundation units, you're probably on extra unique sales terms, NDAs, etc., all aside from paying a premium 'special edition' price.​
The next ~970ish Foundation units would similarly go to hand-selected people (e.g., Tesla isn't, and probably can't, simply offer them to the general public without going afoul of optics regarding retail sales). But here, they likely go a bit deeper into the 'special people' pool, perhaps less onerous NDA-like terms, but still the premium limited-edition pricing.​
Based on what we know about current production numbers, it could take Tesla several more months to get through building these first 1,000 foundation units. They may only get through building say 150-200 of these Foundation units in 2023.​


TRUE PRODUCTION
Only after all that, when they're squarely into 2024, would true 'Production' begin. Beginning production, and making the initial offer of true arms-length retail offers to the general public, triggers various corporate financial consequences on Tesla's balance sheets.​
Personally, I would be equally surprised if true production begins in Q1 as if it instead begins in Q2.​
In part because I think the xwitter verse of fanboi's have gone way out over their ski's in terms of hyping expectations of how close Tesla is to beginning true production. Some have been exclaiming production started back in July, and now they're saying production has started now-ish, and bellowing about how configuration will open any minute now and Tesla may deliver 1,000 retail units before year end.​
It's asinine.​
And to think it's asinine has nothing to do with under-estimating Tesla. This is standard pre-production start up sort of pace even for Tesla, much less very fast for any other OEM (for better and for worse). In the past, it's been as much as 4 months between a Tesla model's delivery event and start of true production - and those models didn't have 1,000 Foundation units to get through first.​
This sort of pragmatism about how long it could be until first production comes not from under-estimating Tesla, but instead from appreciating just how much work Tesla has done and still has to do before it can begin pumping out the volume of retail units needed to make sense for beginning production. In other words, in my view, this pragmatism is the view that *actually* gives Tesla it's due regarding how much it is accomplishing in a short period of time.​
Last thought on something touched on above: while it's possible Tesla could begin retail sales after only a slow drip of retail spec'd units are being produced, that would be unperformable all-things-considered. Generally, more preferrable would be to have a sufficient stock built up, and production to have reached some min threshold of run rate, before beginning retail sales. The reason, in fine, is that the moment Tesla begins retail sales all the historical production expenses of the Cybertruck (e.g., building the line, etc.) will hit Tesla's balance sheet as a negative number. During whatever calendar quarter that occurs, you want to be able to produce and deliver enough units to both (A) bring in revenue from unit sales that somewhat offset the balance sheet with, and (B) on that next quarterly call say "the numbers look like they do because we realized production on the balance sheet, but look how many of these we're selling already, so we'll offset and recoup that figure soon"​


TAKING THE ABOVE DISTINCTION INTO ACCOUNT:

So, in 2023 (and beyond the delivery event Foundation units), some small group of folks will get to purchase a Foundation unit, but those will be hand-selected folks who are able and willing to purchase the Foundation units at the Foundation premium pricing (~$20K premium over normal retail prices). And into early 2024, the rest of these 1,000 folks will get to configure and purchase their special editions.​
But as for us plebians, it is likely several months before retail deliveries begin - even if Tesla opens up configuration sooner.​
It's Tesla, so it's always possible they have some countervailing reasons to begin sooner than should be expected - or trickle out only a few retail units before production has ramped to sufficient volumes.​
But in terms of expectation-setting, folks should be looking to be happily surprised for earlier retail deliveries, as opposed to buying into the xwitter claptrap about retail deliveries starting a week ago.​
Bravo! Especially if you wrote that yourself. This makes sense from a financial perspective and the gist of it is that us reservation holders are unlikely to get ours until late 2024.

When do you expect yours?
 

davelloydbrown

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Based on my experience receiving my Model 3 and of Tesla in general, my expectation is as follows:
  • Tesla will produce the Foundation Series vehicles first, 1000 in total. This could take several months.
  • As the Foundation Series production is coming to a close Tesla will send out a batch configuration email to early reservation holders in the Unites States. This batch will likely be somewhat small, probably 1,000 to 5,000 reservation holders.
    • Those of us invited will receive an email with a link to place an order from available configurations for the Cybertruck. This will be account locked to your account, so you will need to login with the same email as the reservation was made under.
    • The order page will look similiar to the ones for the other Tesla models, allowing you to choose from the Cybertruck trim(s) and options that are currently available to configure. This will not include future trims like RWD. Prices will be listed.
    • You will need to place a non-refundable down-payment at this time, likely in the amount of $2500.
    • You will receive a Motor Vehicle Purchase Agreement once you place your order
  • You will then receive a Prepare for Delivery email that has a list of steps you need to complete for your order before delivery. This will include selecting a Delivery Location. The Delivery Location will likely be required to be a Tesla Service/Delivery Center.
  • You will wait a while as Telsa moves through the production queue until they have a VIN to assign to your account.
  • At this point a Tesla Sales Advisor will contact you to coordinate specific dates and at that point you will be required to figure out your financing/ect for the vehicle. If you are getting a loan you will need to provide documentation regarding the loan, ect, and do some coordination between the bank/credit union and Tesla.
  • Delivery Date - Once the delivery date arrives, assuming no issues on Tesla's end (there were issues with my Model 3 delivery), you show up and get your new vehicle. You of course need to make sure you pay for it at this time, that your loan is funded, ect.
When I did this in 2018 for my Model 3, it was a bit of an aggravating experience due to my car not being at the delivery center in time and being informed last minute that it wasn't there. In 2018 the nearest delivery center to me was across the state so I was flying in to Seattle to pick it up. So that last part was full of frustration for me, but it was all worth it in the end when I picked up the car and drove it home across the state.

That is my expectation, but Tesla changes stuff sometimes, so its not guaranteed it will work this way. Everything is subject to change. Also, how fast this occurs is impossible to know with how manufacturing ramps work. For the Model 3 they did a delivery event in Summer of 2017 but volume of deliveries was very small until Spring of 2018 when they finally began clearing out major hurdles in the line. At that point they began fulfilling orders at a brisk clip.
I got my M3 in June of 2018 too and I was surprised how smooth it went. I received an email about 3 weeks before delivery and chose my trim level, placed a deposit and I had to supply a scan of my insurance and driver's license. They were handing them out at a large venue (the international center in Mississauga) so it was quite an event. The only problem was that I had a total knee replacement 3 weeks before (I got my first email when I was in the hospital), and I wasn't supposed to drive for 6 weeks after but I drove anyways.
 

Regenshire

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I got my M3 in June of 2018 too and I was surprised how smooth it went. I received an email about 3 weeks before delivery and chose my trim level, placed a deposit and I had to supply a scan of my insurance and driver's license. They were handing them out at a large venue (the international center in Mississauga) so it was quite an event. The only problem was that I had a total knee replacement 3 weeks before (I got my first email when I was in the hospital), and I wasn't supposed to drive for 6 weeks after but I drove anyways.
It was mostly smooth at first. Looking through my emails to refresh my memory, I had issues getting my final MVPA Price sheet from Tesla, which I needed to get to my Credit Union for my car loan. I was also frustration with having to cancel flights last minute and reschedule the delivery date.

I expect a smoother experience this time around since Tesla has scaled up. When the Model 3 launched they had to transition from only like 50k cars per year to a much larger volume, so I think there processes were rather stressed at the time. Plus, now I have a local service center I can pickup a vehicle from. I wont have to fly somewhere to pick it up.
 


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I sure hope that the ramp up is faster than it was for the refresh Model X. We ordered ours (configuration and everything, not just a reservation) in July 2021 and they didn’t build it until September 2022 😩
 

cvalue13

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When do you expect yours?
zero clue :ROFLMAO: - too many factors at play, not least of which is this is Tesla we're talking about


i don't have one of the lowest numbers, but i do live in Austin, but i dont have prior Tesla buying history, etc., etc., etc.

Meanwhile, ramp, how they implement the line, etc.

I'm sanguine about all that because I'm in a fortunate position of meanwhile having a Lightning at original MSRP and early 2022 interest rates

putting off a little bit the discussion with my wife doesn't bother me, either
 

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putting off a little bit the discussion with my wife doesn't bother me, either
Just explain to her all the time you will free up by not obsessively posting on this forum! All that time you will get back must be worth something.

I think my wife will just be happy to not hear me talk about all the latest Cybertruck details. She is 100% onboard with me getting it, and part of me wonders (half-seriously) if it is just so that I stop talking so much about it.
 

cvalue13

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Just explain to her all the time you will free up by not obsessively posting on this forum! All that time you will get back must be worth something.

I think my wife will just be happy to not hear me talk about all the latest Cybertruck details. She is 100% onboard with me getting it, and part of me wonders (half-seriously) if it is just so that I stop talking so much about it.
Unfortunately, she knows this isn’t my only (or worst) obsession - and it’s one of the few with professional relevance for me 🤣

meanwhile, these discussions would be easier if I hadn’t bought a Lightning in the same month I went YOLO and took a 95% pay cut to quit my career to join a tech start-up


🤣

it’s all good, she just doesn’t know yet that the real plan is to sell her expedition, give her the Lightning, and I take the CyberTruck

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