How many CTs will be purchased and delivered to the public in 2023?

How many CTs will be purchased and delivered to the public in 2023? Poll closes 31 Dec 2022.


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  • Poll closed .

SpaceYooper

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Elon's stated ramp-up goal is 250K CTs/yr...but how many will be delivered in 2023?
I'm just curious about what most of you think that number is. No explanation is needed, but feel free to state your case.

 
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SpaceYooper

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I would give a range of 40k to 80k with 60k most likely.

But since your survey tips at 50 I went under instead of over.

-Crissa
I'm no mathlete but I'm pretty sure 60k would fall into the 50k - 100K group that is part of the survey.
 


Ogre

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I voted, but the real answer is unknown until Tesla actually starts delivering them. Even meeting “Mid 2023” is vague and could mean anything from May 1st to September 31st which would be a difference of 50,000+ trucks by year end.

Tesla started Model Y production in March and has produced 20,000 so far. By year end 50,000 is likely.

It gets weird after that though because the weekly production rate in December will be 10x the weekly production rate in March.
 
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SpaceYooper

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I think Ford started delivering the Lighting in May, and the last I saw I think they were somewhere shy of a woeful 9k total deliveries through Aug. (kudo's for getting deliveries to all 50 states though). I believe August was about 3k(almost doubled July's numbers). So I would guess they hit about 4k in Sept, and I'll assume the same for Oct, Nov Dec. That would put their first-year deliveries of May - Dec around 25k.

I don't think the first CT will be delivered by May 23'. I think it will probably be sometime in the late summer. I'll guess late August. But then, I think they will deliver at a slightly faster pace than Ford. So I'm guessing their first-year total deliveries will look similar around 25k.

They will both be ramping up throughout 2023, with Ford probably delivering somewhere around 75k Lightings total by the time Tesla starts CT deliveries (guessing Aug 23') and Ford will probably be near 100k total by the end of 2023. Since I think the CT will be around 25k deliveries by the end of 23' it could be tough to catch up on total deliveries by the end of 2024, but Telsa will push Ford.

They (Tesla and Ford) will be the only full-size EV trucks ending 2024 with over 100k deliveries and I think they will be in the range of 125k-150k CTs and 160k-185k Lightnings delivered with Tesla closing Ford's 75k vehicles and more then a year headstart by 40k (close the gap by over 50%). By the end of 2025 the CT will pass the Lightning for total deliveries; 275k-300k CTs and 240k - 265k Lightnings. Facts.
 

greggertruck

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I wouldn’t bet against you.

Unless Ford ramps things up a bunch, good chance Cybertruck passes them before middle of 2024
I am more aggressive @ early q2-24

I do however come in more conservatively for 2023 Cybertrucks @ high teens thousands delivered. low 20's produced though. There will be some quality issues that hold things up I am betting.
 


charliemagpie

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I'm in the 20-50K bracket. Unless production kicked off later than stated, I would be disappointed if it was less than 20.

In the event that it all goes smoothly, and they are trickling out in April, who knows?

No Paint, Literally Cut and Paste. - Average production time goes from 10 hours to 8 hours ?

Could full ramp take no more than 6 months ? 5k per week from November?.
 

Tim.Luchenko

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Why there is no “Less than 0” Option?
I am personally thinking Tesla will delay CT to Q1 2024. So no deliveries in 2023.
I’ve heard enough from 2019 that production will start 2021, then 2022, then mid 2023, then late 2023….
 

Crissa

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Why there is no “Less than 0” Option?
I am personally thinking Tesla will delay CT to Q1 2024. So no deliveries in 2023.
I’ve heard enough from 2019 that production will start 2021, then 2022, then mid 2023, then late 2023….
So far Tesla said:
  1. End of 2021
  2. Late 2022
  3. Mid 2023

They have not said late 2023, and the article said 'mass production' not 'start production'.

-Crissa

 

 
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