How many Cybertrucks annually at full volume production?

TruckElectric

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Any guesses on how many CT's will be produced at full volume production?

How may will be produced by the end of 2023?

Dave Lee says volume production for Giga Berlin is 5000+ cars/ week hopefully closer to 10,000

Can Giga Texas produce 500,000+ CT's a year?

Will Cybertruck ever be produced at Fremont?
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Crissa

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Any guesses on how many CT's will be produced at full volume production?

How may will be produced by the end of 2023?

Dave Lee says volume production for Giga Berlin is 5000+ cars/ week hopefully closer to 10,000

Can Giga Texas produce 500,000+ CT's a year?

Will Cybertruck ever be produced at Fremont?
1) Elon guessed around 5k/wk. The demand is probably twoce that.

2) I've already made this prediction https://www.cybertruckownersclub.co...and-volume-production-in-2023.3765/post-69431

3) Sure. I don't see why not.

4) No. The steel isn't produced near here.

-Crissa
 

Ogre

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I have my own predictions but they are pretty similar to @Crissa’s and linked in the same thread she posted…

My predictions and I think Crissas are based Musk’s prediction of 250k or more per week. But… Tera Texas is nearly 3x the size of Giga Shanghai. Shanghai is currently producing cars at a rate of 56k/ month which is annualized to 650k, but Shanghai doesn’t produce batteries. If they use 1/3 of Tera Texas for battery production, that means Tesla has nearly twice the capacity of Shanghai or capacity for ~1.3 million vehicles a year. Looks to me like they are building the Model Ys on one side and the Cybertruck on the other side.

Seems to me half a million Cybertrucks a year is a significant possibility. The big problem with that is they would need 2 of the big gigapresses. One of them is good for about 250k/ year. I think they use one of the smaller gigapresses for the front end so they would have 2 big and 2 “small” gigapresses.
 

Crissa

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Mine are based on two things: Musk said they wouldn't begin deliveries until they had a volume - with the other cars, that's been 1000 a week. The second thing was the ramp-up for Shanghai and Model Y - both were based off of matching the production lines that already existed in Fremont. Experience does matter, at least for ramp-up.

-Crissa
 

akcoyote

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I think it is currently extremely difficult to predict even remotely close to what will actually happen for several reasons. While I am hopeful Tesla will be able to produce 500k+ CTs per year, I think the ramp could be somewhat difficult.

First, producing the stainless steel body at scale could be a challenge because it is a new method that they do not have experiance with yet. Second is the old story of battery cell availability. As Tesla wants to also start producing the Semi which will suck up large quantities of cells, they could remain "cell constrained" for several years. That is unless their cell suppliers such as CATL, LG Chem, & Panasonic can produce 4680s in large quantities. My feeling is the Austin & Brandenburg cell plants will probably not produce much more than what will be needed by Model Y production.

As mentioned in the first paragraph, I hope I am wrong and the CT production ramp is a smooth one,
 

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Manufacturing 4680 cells at the speed of a Tootsie Roll production line is the key to CT volume production.

I expect Tesla to manufacture 10k CT’s in 2022, 150k in 2023, 200k in 2024.
 
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Ogre

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I think it is currently extremely difficult to predict even remotely close to what will actually happen for several reasons. While I am hopeful Tesla will be able to produce 500k+ CTs per year, I think the ramp could be somewhat difficult.

First, producing the stainless steel body at scale could be a challenge because it is a new method that they do not have experiance with yet. Second is the old story of battery cell availability. As Tesla wants to also start producing the Semi which will suck up large quantities of cells, they could remain "cell constrained" for several years. That is unless their cell suppliers such as CATL, LG Chem, & Panasonic can produce 4680s in large quantities. My feeling is the Austin & Brandenburg cell plants will probably not produce much more than what will be needed by Model Y production.

As mentioned in the first paragraph, I hope I am wrong and the CT production ramp is a smooth one,
The 500k number is a “stretch goal”. I think it’s hypothetically possible, but not the most likely outcome. I do think with the square footage and manufacturing experience they have that 250k is highly likely and anything beyond that is bonus for those in the 500k+ club.
 

Crissa

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I think they need to aim for 1,000k/yr, honestly.

Tesla is now selling as many Model 3 each year as were pre-ordered. And this is a car without the new castings, battery, etc.

-Crissa
 

Ogre

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I think they need to aim for 1,000k/yr, honestly.

Tesla is now selling as many Model 3 each year as were pre-ordered. And this is a car without the new castings, battery, etc.

-Crissa
I think eventually it will get to 1m/ year.

I don’t think that will happen by the end of their first year of production though. Maybe 2-3 years in. Seems like they will want to get their production line stabilized then reassess. If demand remains strong. Then they double or triple output.
 
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