How many Cybertrucks deliveries in 2023 ?

Ogre

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It’s not about me personally. My production numbers in the 1400s so I am quite ecstatic to be amongst the first to get one of these.

I just find it interesting that there is such a strong pushback here that there is another delay as it relates into volume production timelines.
I find the whole argument stupid myself.

Tesla management said production starts middle of 2023. Have they changed this?

You are making a huge deal out of a fairly subtle change in wording which likely means nothing. There is no “Start of Volume Production”… that’s not an event. They start production, they increase production. At some point along that production ramp, a point which nobody has ever defined specifically Tesla hits “Volume Production”.

People just need to STFU and watch the process because Tesla is doing this as fast as they reasonably can.
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papajamaliciousness

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1,000 in 2023
100,000 in 2024

Elon said no significant production in 2023 but first delivery event is in about 2 months. I believe they will begin slowly, producing a few vehicles per day, and they will begin to ramp up production over time. At the end of the year they will be producing maybe 50 per day? I'm aiming for orders of magnitude. I believe actual production will be between 1k and 10k the first year. And roughly 100k the second year. The second year won't be 10k, and it won't be 1million.

If they are aiming for 375k per year it means more than 1,000 vehicles per day at peak production which really should be a year away (very) optimistically. Anyway it is astonishing to think of them spitting out 1,000 of these behemoths per day.
 
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SparkChaser

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1,000 in 2023
100,000 in 2024

Elon said no significant production in 2023 but first delivery event is in about 2 months. I believe they will begin slowly, producing a few vehicles per day, and they will begin to ramp up production over time. At the end of the year they will be producing maybe 50 per day? I'm aiming for orders of magnitude. I believe actual production will be between 1k and 10k the first year. And roughly 100k the second year. The second year won't be 10k, and it won't be 1million.

If they are aiming for 375k per year it means more than 1,000 vehicles per day at peak production which really should be a year away (very) optimistically. Anyway it is astonishing to think of them spitting out 1,000 of these behemoths per day.
We now have the numbers & Tesla’s Production ramp is like no one else! - YouTube

Tesla is expecting 200k-250k CTs in 2024.
 

Ogre

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papajamaliciousness

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slomo

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Tesla production plan is certainly to make more than 1000 vehicles this year. But they are leaving themselves the time to recover from significant mistakes without publically missing their target.

The model Y was the shift at Tesla to underpromise and overdeliver when it comes to public statements. Excluding FSD, of course.

But I doubt that Tesla can make 200K+ in 2024. I think they can exit 2024 at that rate. But going from, say 5K per month in January 2024 to 200K total for the year will be very difficult.
 

Ogre

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Based on Teslas cell production update looks like they will have cell capacity for 7500-10,000 trucks by end of the year if you assume the 350 miles truck is indeed first. With a longer range truck those numbers get trimmed way back. Likely 5,000-6,000.

 

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Based on Teslas cell production update looks like they will have cell capacity for 7500-10,000 trucks by end of the year if you assume the 350 miles truck is indeed first. With a longer range truck those numbers get trimmed way back. Likely 5,000-6,000.

are any of those going into Austin Y's?
 
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Its only taken 1 qrt or 1 news update to put the issue of lack of batteries to bed.

And what about density ? Id like to know what 'improved' means, and what it will be in 6 months.
 


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Its only taken 1 qrt or 1 news update to put the issue of lack of batteries to bed.

And what about density ? Id like to know what 'improved' means, and what it will be in 6 months.
Well, in six months, it'll be 10%, because that's what they have now.

Density is pretty much something that is always taking baby steps but has no impact on us right now. They might be experimenting or have established a new baseline in six months, but then it'll take months more of testing, and whatnot.

What matters to the Cybertruck isn't cell density, but what they can put in a battery pack. And we don't really know that until they start shipping them.

-Crissa
 
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charliemagpie

charliemagpie

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Well, in six months, it'll be 10%, because that's what they have now.

Density is pretty much something that is always taking baby steps but has no impact on us right now. They might be experimenting or have established a new baseline in six months, but then it'll take months more of testing, and whatnot.

What matters to the Cybertruck isn't cell density, but what they can put in a battery pack. And we don't really know that until they start shipping them.

-Crissa
A new 4680 facility is building in Fremont.

I noticed steel being brought into the 4680 area in Austin to possibly reconfigure the floor plan for new 4680 lines.

I think likely the 4680 is more advanced than they make out. I could be wrong, but I think more likely.
 

jd1

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Volume production now at 2024.
Basically another delay!
I’m 1400 on the list and not holding my breath to get one this year, but would love to.
You’re 1400 on a fan made spreadsheet claims it knows the magic formula for order numbers but fails to take into account the tens to hundreds of thousands that have not registered on that spreadsheet.

Not hating.. I’m sitting at around 1690 area if that spreadsheet is right.

Sadly the spreadsheet also doesn’t take into account region/zone for orders in relation to Tesla’s plans. example.. this year 100% us based and odds are like the 3 and Y before it.. staff will get the truck first. 🦾

Yes, I kill at parties. I hope you are number 1400, but given I’m Canadian, no chance I am actually 1690 area. That sheet lists me at March 2024. Man I hope it’s right. Lol

Good luck man!
 

Ogre

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are any of those going into Austin Y's?
My Impression is Austin Ys will continue to be supplied by Fremont while the first run Cybercells go to the Cybertruck. Fremont is still expanding and presumably still using the older chemistry.

That way Model Y line is consistent and the Cybertruck line is consistent.
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