How many early adopters will there be? Guessing around 50K +/-

[carsly]

Wait, what? Only 50,000? How did I get that number?

Well, Rivian's combined production of R1T and R1S vehicles this year has been guided to ~54,000 units (https://www.reuters.com/business/au...ses-full-year-production-forecast-2023-11-07/) and they opened the R1T shop for picking pre-configured vehicles months ago. Similarly, the R1S shop is now generally open shortly after (a few weeks) someone places an order. So the multi-year backlog of 12 months ago has completely vanished in 12 months. We don't know how many reservations were placed, but we know at current price points of $80-100K (less for pre-orders) that demand and supply have very quickly balanced -- and that's a problem for Rivian.

Lucid has also reached supply-demand balance for their $80+k sedans and haven't gotten close to 50K units as of yet.

Tesla sells ~15K Model S/X vehicles a quarter (https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/...-financial-results-webcast-third-quarter-2023) for an annual run-rate of 60K.

Back to our favorite angular truck, despite the million or two million pre-orders it would seem that market potential for $80-100K trucks, excepting the 1,000 Foundation series, is something in the tens of thousands of units per year. Let's say the other precedents above are off by a factor of 2, we're looking at maybe 100K units/year unless/until prices come down.

An upper bound? Let's say the 388K Rav4's, at much lower price points, that Toyota sells annually (https://carfigures.com/us-market-brand/toyota/rav4).

So those of us with reservation numbers well into the hundreds of thousands may very well be in luck depending on the production ramp. It's quite possible that all/most pre-order holders (let's say pre-2022 to be safe) will get orders filled in the next 12-18 months. Then prices drop and more recent orders start getting filled from mid-2025 onward.

Thoughts/reactions?

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[Love2Cyber]

I completely agree with this take.

 

[carsly]

I don't give a shit what anyone says, 80-100k vehicles don't sell in the hundreds of thousands no matter the vehicle. Most can't afford it.

...and that is precisely the point. There aren't hundreds of thousands of people who can afford a $100K truck.

Or even if they can afford it maybe they've already purchased a Rivian, Lucid, Tesla S/X, Mercedes EQS or BMW iX in the last 2-4 years or maybe will be purchasing an EX90, Polestar 3, Mercedes EQE, EV9 or something else before they think their Cybertruck number will get called. In any case, they may not be in need of another pricey vehicle just yet and with the economy souring may not want to unload a relatively new vehicle which is likely to be significantly underwater.

I wonder if Tesla is going to let reservation holders defer their reservations because I see an epic wave of deferrals coming up in that case.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Wait, what? Only 50,000? How did I get that number?

Well, Rivian's combined production of R1T and R1S vehicles this year has been guided to ~54,000 units (https://www.reuters.com/business/au...ses-full-year-production-forecast-2023-11-07/) and they opened the R1T shop for picking pre-configured vehicles months ago. Similarly, the R1S shop is now generally open shortly after (a few weeks) someone places an order. So the multi-year backlog of 12 months ago has completely vanished in 12 months. We don't know how many reservations were placed, but we know at current price points of $80-100K (less for pre-orders) that demand and supply have very quickly balanced -- and that's a problem for Rivian.

Lucid has also reached supply-demand balance for their $80+k sedans and haven't gotten close to 50K units as of yet.

Tesla sells ~15K Model S/X vehicles a quarter (https://ir.tesla.com/press-release/...-financial-results-webcast-third-quarter-2023) for an annual run-rate of 60K.

Back to our favorite angular truck, despite the million or two million pre-orders it would seem that market potential for $80-100K trucks, excepting the 1,000 Foundation series, is something in the tens of thousands of units per year. Let's say the other precedents above are off by a factor of 2, we're looking at maybe 100K units/year unless/until prices come down.

An upper bound? Let's say the 388K Rav4's, at much lower price points, that Toyota sells annually (https://carfigures.com/us-market-brand/toyota/rav4).

So those of us with reservation numbers well into the hundreds of thousands may very well be in luck depending on the production ramp. It's quite possible that all/most pre-order holders (let's say pre-2022 to be safe) will get orders filled in the next 12-18 months. Then prices drop and more recent orders start getting filled from mid-2025 onward.

Thoughts/reactions?

For my part I hope that your analysis is correct. For Tesla’s part I just hope that they find a way to make the Cybertruck affordable and profitable as soon as possible.

 

[WormtownKris]

I respectfully disagree.

Saying Rivian did this, and Lucid did that, therefore Tesla CyberTruck will follow those vehicles, is not realistic. You need to compare the Rivian R1T and the Lucid Air to the 2012 Model S, not to the CyberTruck. Pricy first models from a floundering EV start up. Nice vehicles but hardly a paradigm shift. Will RIvian survive? Probably but not definitely. WiIl Lucid? Depends how much money the Saudi sovereign wealth funds decide to pump into it. Much like Tesla a decade ago, when the world was against them. "Am I pouring $90k into a vehicle that might be orphaned by a bankrupt company in a few years?"

The CyberTruck is a revolutionary vehicle by the well-established EV leader. It contains tons of next generation tech that most people, (even most reservation holders who don't obsess about it like we do), don't even know about. It is certainly polarizing, but the people who put their deposits down are the ones who like its uniqueness.

Some people will stretch their budgets to get the CT. Will people do that for the Lucid, which is basically an updated take on a Model S, but from a rookie manufacturer who cannot seem to ramp? You can spend $40k less and get a luxurious Mercedes C300. How nice of a pickup can you get in 2023 for $45k?

Apples and oranges.

 

[Love2Cyber]

I respectfully disagree.

Saying Rivian did this, and Lucid did that, therefore Tesla CyberTruck will follow those vehicles, is not realistic. You need to compare the Rivian R1T and the Lucid Air to the 2012 Model S, not to the CyberTruck. Pricy first models from a floundering EV start up. Nice vehicles but hardly a paradigm shift. Will RIvian survive? Probably but not definitely. WiIl Lucid? Depends how much money the Saudi sovereign wealth funds decide to pump into it. Much like Tesla a decade ago, when the world was against them. "Am I pouring $90k into a vehicle that might be orphaned by a bankrupt company in a few years?"

The CyberTruck is a revolutionary vehicle by the well-established EV leader. It contains tons of next generation tech that most people, (even most reservation holders who don't obsess about it like we do), don't even know about. It is certainly polarizing, but the people who put their deposits down are the ones who like its uniqueness.

Some people will stretch their budgets to get the CT. Will people do that for the Lucid, which is basically an updated take on a Model S, but from a rookie manufacturer who cannot seem to ramp? You can spend $40k less and get a luxurious Mercedes C300. How nice of a pickup can you get in 2023 for $45k?

Apples and oranges.

ROFL - it’s a pickup truck that only has 300 miles of range and looks like a Silicon Valley creation. Diesel is such a better value

 

[pricedm]

Full size trucks are in $60k+. EV trucks, if the buyer qualifies for tax credits, are priced at a similar level. Then you subtract out lack of liquid fuel costs and associated maintenance, and the EV trucks are less expensive to operate.

Tesla will sell every Cybertruck they make. Like the Model S, 3, X, Y, the Cybertruck price will come down over time, all things equal. My 2018 Model 3 had a higher sales price than my 2023 Model Y. And 2023 offerings from Tesla have so many manufacturing advances over even a year earlier versions.

The tech in the Cybertruck is significantly different from existing options, making comparisons to Rivian somewhat dubious.

 

[VR Driving]

Well, it's difficult to be an early adopter when Tesla is only planning to build about 50-60k Cybertruck for 2024. 2025 demand will be very different with a new entry-level truck available.

If Tesla wants to sell the Cybertruck for the 2019 announced pricing, they will need to be able to build millions of them first. since they are unable to do that yet, no point in selling the Cybertruck for cheap. It is as simple as that.

 

[Cybrtrk420]

In a 2 years or so timeframe the OP will be in disbelief with the actual numbers of CT sold by then. CT will be sold out (at least the AWD for years to come).

 

[PilotPete]

ROFL - it’s a pickup truck that only has 300 miles of range and looks like a Silicon Valley creation. Diesel is such a better value

ROFLMAO - I would NEVER buy a diesel truck. You and I have a very different opinion of "Value". And if you think the CT is "just" a pickup truck, I don't know what to tell you.

 

[jerhenderson]

ROFL - it’s a pickup truck that only has 300 miles of range and looks like a Silicon Valley creation. Diesel is such a better value

Diesel.....lol..... whale oil is such a better value.

 

[Arctic_White]

I would say near 100k due to prolonged pent up hype. Ford platinum f150 at 84k was less than 1% of f150 sales. Elon himself has mentioned a price cliff beyond which sales plummet.

I don't give a shit what anyone says, 80-100k vehicles don't sell in the hundreds of thousands no matter the vehicle. Most can't afford it.

Except that the Dual Motor starts at $80K and with the IRA credit, costs $72.5K which is a stone throw away from what an average truck costs ($67K).

Those thinking (hoping?) that prices will come down in a year or two are perhaps not appreciating that the Cybertruck is priced really well as it is (not the Foundation or the Beast, but the dual motor is priced very competitively).

I doubt we will see Tesla lowering their prices until at least 2026.

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