Is 4th Quarter 2021 a realistic delivery date for the Cybertruck?

Bigsur345

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I do not know the intricacies about vehicle design, tooling, supply chains, crash testing and manufacturing challenges, but I do know about development and construction.

I just cannot see how Tesla can build at least one factory and deliver a truck within 18 MONTHS from now with so much to do -- for instance......

Buy the land for the terrafactory (it is only optioned right now) // Environmental Impact Study approval (the public comment period alone is a few months) // Govt. permitting & regulatory approvals // design, bid, construct // utility infrastructure // hire & train factory personnel // figure out where in the world are you going to get so much stainless steel // how you would manufacture so many more batteries when demand cannot even be reasonably met right now, and on and on ....

Texas is not like China where you can build a Tesla factory in about a year (that was amazing). Even with local, state & federal entities advocating such a high profile project, it is still going to be an arduous process to build the factory and deliver trucks; it just isn't going to happen by the end of 2021.

My guess is trucks start to roll out by 1st Q 2023, at the earliest, dang it. Anybody else have thoughts on the timelines?
 

Dids

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I do not know the intricacies about vehicle design, tooling, supply chains, crash testing and manufacturing challenges, but I do know about development and construction.

I just cannot see how Tesla can build at least one factory and deliver a truck within 18 MONTHS from now with so much to do -- for instance......

Buy the land for the terrafactory (it is only optioned right now) // Environmental Impact Study approval (the public comment period alone is a few months) // Govt. permitting & regulatory approvals // design, bid, construct // utility infrastructure // hire & train factory personnel // figure out where in the world are you going to get so much stainless steel // how you would manufacture so many more batteries when demand cannot even be reasonably met right now, and on and on ....

Texas is not like China where you can build a Tesla factory in about a year (that was amazing). Even with local, state & federal entities advocating such a high profile project, it is still going to be an arduous process to build the factory and deliver trucks; it just isn't going to happen by the end of 2021.

My guess is trucks start to roll out by 1st Q 2023, at the earliest, dang it. Anybody else have thoughts on the timelines?
I don't like your entirely reasonable logic.
 

Blue Steel

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I do not know the intricacies about vehicle design, tooling, supply chains, crash testing and manufacturing challenges, but I do know about development and construction.

I just cannot see how Tesla can build at least one factory and deliver a truck within 18 MONTHS from now with so much to do -- for instance......

Buy the land for the terrafactory (it is only optioned right now) // Environmental Impact Study approval (the public comment period alone is a few months) // Govt. permitting & regulatory approvals // design, bid, construct // utility infrastructure // hire & train factory personnel // figure out where in the world are you going to get so much stainless steel // how you would manufacture so many more batteries when demand cannot even be reasonably met right now, and on and on ....

Texas is not like China where you can build a Tesla factory in about a year (that was amazing). Even with local, state & federal entities advocating such a high profile project, it is still going to be an arduous process to build the factory and deliver trucks; it just isn't going to happen by the end of 2021.

My guess is trucks start to roll out by 1st Q 2023, at the earliest, dang it. Anybody else have thoughts on the timelines?
These are good thoughts mostly. I've worked on all sorts of construction projects, but nothing this big. However, something this big has it's pluses and minuses over a smaller project.

A lot of the stuff you listed can be done simultaneously. I'm sure they have architects and engineers drawing up the blueprints as we speak. Surveying the property before they even own it. Permitting can move very quickly when the officials are "properly motivated". Training high level personnel will start while the factory is under construction, and will scale up to the floor workers as construction nears completion. They are absolutely sourcing materials now. I would be shocked if there aren't a few suppliers vying for that role. Same with battery production.

The 2 main obstacles I see right now are getting to the point of breaking ground and then the construction itself. I do think they will have at least one production line open next year, but it will probably be a MY line. I think the moment that first line is open they will begin on phase 2, just like Shanghai.

/removesprophethat
 

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Im not sure what's it's worth, as it was the first of many, are we on 4 now? Gigafactory s

From wiki, The northern Nevada site and plans were announced with state officials on September 3, 2014.
July 2016 was the official opening of only 3 of the 21 "blocks " of the factory open.

Based on this, I would expect the building to take about 1.5to 2 years before trucks r coming out which would be end of 2021 or mid 2022
 
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Cebliminal

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this Is all really disappointing and I Believe it has been in the back of all our minds, i Cant really think of a plus except I will be able to save more money to put down without touching any savings. But I will probably loose my sanity waiting.
 

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I wish they would expand the Gigafactory 1's parking lot and build that out for a Cybertruck area. Didn't they say that was the plan for Gigafactory 1 was to expand a bit?

I completely agree with OP, with permit approval and BS like that, no way they can finish it at 18 months. If they already started breaking ground, maybe. I think Covid really threw a curveball, they just haven't confirmed the delay yet. Sucks.
 

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Im not sure what's it's worth, as it was the first of many, are we on 4 now? Gigafactory s

From wiki, The northern Nevada site and plans were announced with state officials on September 3, 2014.
July 2016 was the official opening of only 3 of the 21 "blocks " of the factory open.

Based on this, I would expect the building to take about 1.5to 2 years before trucks r coming out which would be end of 2021 or mid 2022
The new one coming to somewhere in the central USA will be Gigafactory 5. Possibly Terafactory.
 

Ehninger1212

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I wish they would expand the Gigafactory 1's parking lot and build that out for a Cybertruck area. Didn't they say that was the plan for Gigafactory 1 was to expand a bit?

I completely agree with OP, with permit approval and BS like that, no way they can finish it at 18 months. If they already started breaking ground, maybe. I think Covid really threw a curveball, they just haven't confirmed the delay yet. Sucks.
Obviously they have a good reason not to continue to expand GigaFactory1 in Nevada. Also, My firm has seen an increase in speed through permitting offices. We are getting permits for construction back in 8 to 10 days. this usually takes 1 to 3 months. Covid probably really hasn't delayed anything. Here in Houston, due to decreased traffic, construction has actually sped up. Workers and deliveries are arriving on time and things have just become a little more efficient.
 

Balthezor

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Obviously they have a good reason not to continue to expand GigaFactory1 in Nevada. Also, My firm has seen an increase in speed through permitting offices. We are getting permits for construction back in 8 to 10 days. this usually takes 1 to 3 months. Covid probably really hasn't delayed anything. Here in Houston, due to decreased traffic, construction has actually sped up. Workers and deliveries are arriving on time and things have just become a little more efficient.
Curious, why don't they expand that gigafactory?
 

Ehninger1212

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Curious, why don't they expand that gigafactory?
I dont know for sure, some have speculated that they are having a hard time finding good employees because no body wants to live in sparks Nevada. One of the biggest considerations for this new factory is quality of life. Attracting Talent to the area easily. Almost everyone i know who has been to Austin wants to move there, some of them drop everything and actually do.
 

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I do not know the intricacies about vehicle design, tooling, supply chains, crash testing and manufacturing challenges, but I do know about development and construction.

I just cannot see how Tesla can build at least one factory and deliver a truck within 18 MONTHS from now with so much to do -- for instance......

Buy the land for the terrafactory (it is only optioned right now) // Environmental Impact Study approval (the public comment period alone is a few months) // Govt. permitting & regulatory approvals // design, bid, construct // utility infrastructure // hire & train factory personnel // figure out where in the world are you going to get so much stainless steel // how you would manufacture so many more batteries when demand cannot even be reasonably met right now, and on and on ....

Texas is not like China where you can build a Tesla factory in about a year (that was amazing). Even with local, state & federal entities advocating such a high profile project, it is still going to be an arduous process to build the factory and deliver trucks; it just isn't going to happen by the end of 2021.

My guess is trucks start to roll out by 1st Q 2023, at the earliest, dang it. Anybody else have thoughts on the timelines?
Bigsur345 brought up some great points, but I imagine the logistics people at Tesla will start ordering stainless the day after an agreement is signed between Tesla and the authorities in Texas. Tesla and SpaceX have huge negotiating power. They won't have any trouble with this commodity. Tesla has its own inhouse guru's designing robots and assembly lines. I'll bet the tera-factory is mostly designed already. And if what Sandy Monroe says is true, the factory will be less complicated than most vehicle manufacturing plants. There are about 100,000 guys standing in line in front of me. I'm guessing many of those lucky dudes will get their CYBRTRKs in 2021. I'm confident I'll get mine in the first quarter of '22. YeeHa!
 













 
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