Is it a mistake to change car now while waiting for the CT?

Carmageddon

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I have early CT tri motor reservation - approx. 10k in line on the trim, or 40k overall so I guess I should get one within a year of starting manufacturing.

I am currently with 2019 Hyundai Kona, we really need something larger but keep waiting and suffering in long distance with baby car seat etc.
Short distance around town its ok though.

Given current high prices for used gas cars, high gas prices which probably wont be really going down, and sometime soon people realizing gas is the old tech - prices will plummet.
So it feels like this is the right time to get rid of the Kona.

So I am considering selling, and getting a 2019 Outlander PHEV - more spacy, ~30km electric range for most in-town driving (so big gas savings!) and seems like exceptionally good value for money, although it doesn't have lane keep assist like unlike the Kona :(
I've run approximate TCO for 2 years comparison (assuming I'd get it within that timeframe!) on keeping it, vs owning the Outlander for that period - I am seeing almost identical numbers (in Canadian $)!
Tesla Cybertruck Is it a mistake to change car now while waiting for the CT? 1652996938165


Do you think better to hold on? will PHEVs hold value once people realize gas tech is dead? the downside of course its a complex power train with 3 engines+12kw battery.. although 10 years/160k km warranty, so I am not sure how its resale and depreciation would look like in 2+ years.

I'd really appreciate further feedback helping me come up with a decision.
I've used this site to help too, it seems very optimistic plugging in my numbers:
https://www.omnicalculator.com/ecology/phev-economy

I think, from the standpoint of not owning a dying tech, lease takeover for 2 years is even better than owning another car especially for such (presumably!) short term, but seems very difficult finding a good deal like that with proper car size..
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Ogre

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I think this is a pretty personal decision.

I’m frugal. If it’s paid for and doesn’t cost too much to run, I’ll hang onto a car until it becomes unreliable.

Owning a car for 12-24 months seems like a money losing proposition to me.
 
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Carmageddon

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I think this is a pretty personal decision.

I’m frugal. If it’s paid for and doesn’t cost too much to run, I’ll hang onto a car until it becomes unreliable.

Owning a car for 12-24 months seems like a money losing proposition to me.
Its not, the Kona is under financing as well, with 25k remaining on balance, but market value currently is about 28+ so I am at a good point of time to correct a bad financing decision I made in 2019 (7 years, although it has 8 years warranty and at the time I thought we'll keep it that long, it used to be a second car)
 

Ogre

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Really hard to say. Maybe?

(Also, Holy crap you pay a lot for insurance!)

When you say “Lease Takeover” does that mean you don’t own the car at the end of the 2 years? Wouldn’t you have some residual value on the Kona at that point?

With as much uncertainty over delivery timing, I’d be cautious around any lease or time based deal. You could easily end up paying for 2 cars at once. With the Kona you just sell.
 

John K

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Is a lease an option? Though, putting a car seat in any car destroys the interior. Cheerios multiply exponentially.

I would take a look at want versus need. If need and within means, lean towards doing so. If want or a challenge to means, maybe not. Even with the higher rate in gas, if paid off, the gas differential should be less than an additional car payment plus insurance spike,

Edit, should of read all the posts since the points were already discussed
 


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I do not know about the Kona but I have owned 2 hybrids and the maintenance was near zero, so maybe that $11,000 is high? My maintenance was much lower than my previous ICE SUVs.

We decided to get a Model Y and got it in late March. It has plenty of space and works great. If you don't have a BEV, getting a Tesla before the truck comes out serves several purposes. First, you get to set up a charging solution before the truck comes, which is a pretty big deal if you haven't got a BEV yet. Second, you would be familiar with the Tesla software except those components that are specific to the truck, and that is a pretty big deal. It would also completely solve your gas problem, and the resale value of Model Ys is very good. If you already have a BEV then none of this is relevant.
 

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I've been wrestling with this for months. I can get a MYP now but I'm holding on to my Jeep. I just got a new transmission (limetime warranty repair) so I'm feeling "iffy-hand-waggly" and wondering if it's time for things to start going "pop" one after another at 100k.

I dealt with a bad tank of gas all last week which made me shit a brick when I got misfire warnings for several days after rounds of trouble shooting. Luckily it cleared up with a fresh tank.

My worry is that if I buy a MYP now the resale to get a CT won't be as strong in 18 months as it is now, if the supply and economy normalize. But then again my Jeep won't be worth more than it is right now.
 

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I've been wrestling with this for months. I can get a MYP now but I'm holding on to my Jeep. I just got a new transmission (limetime warranty repair) so I'm feeling "iffy-hand-waggly" and wondering if it's time for things to start going "pop" one after another at 100k.
Whenever people talk about EVs they want a battery that lasts a million miles and 20+ years. Meanwhile over here in reality ICE cars which we’ve owned for decades actually start to fall apart after 100k - 150k miles.
 
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Really hard to say. Maybe?

(Also, Holy crap you pay a lot for insurance!)

When you say “Lease Takeover” does that mean you don’t own the car at the end of the 2 years? Wouldn’t you have some residual value on the Kona at that point?

With as much uncertainty over delivery timing, I’d be cautious around any lease or time based deal. You could easily end up paying for 2 cars at once. With the Kona you just sell.
Insurance is high for me, yes :( due to 2 claims that just wont fall off yet unfortunately, and our province (NS) sucks for this stuff..
I think so, when you take over someone's lease, say it got 17 months left - you pay the monthly payments, and then return the car, or buy it out for the residual value you mention - either way - no upfront tax payment, no commitment for owning an asset for long term.. problem is finding a suitable lease takeover...

And just selling the Kona later - yes, but probably now is the best time to get rid of gas cars.. in this crazy market. But how would PHEV's value be in 2 years? would they be wanted?


I do not know about the Kona but I have owned 2 hybrids and the maintenance was near zero, so maybe that $11,000 is high? My maintenance was much lower than my previous ICE SUVs.

We decided to get a Model Y and got it in late March. It has plenty of space and works great. If you don't have a BEV, getting a Tesla before the truck comes out serves several purposes. First, you get to set up a charging solution before the truck comes, which is a pretty big deal if you haven't got a BEV yet. Second, you would be familiar with the Tesla software except those components that are specific to the truck, and that is a pretty big deal. It would also completely solve your gas problem, and the resale value of Model Ys is very good. If you already have a BEV then none of this is relevant.
11k is the Depreciation estimated in 2 years of ownership, based on a website which helps:
https://caredge.com/mitsubishi/outlander/depreciation?y=2&p=38000&o=2&m=15000
This is the amount of money I loose, after depreciation if I sell in two years time after buying.

Regarding getting a new Y (used one that cost as much as new are obviously bad deal) - again, if the market stabilizes (and even if not - I'd be paying tax on ~90k CAD brand new), then even if I sell in 2 years for the CT, I am loosing that 13.5k taxes I paid, unless Tesla offers a fair trade-in - not something I can count on!
Getting a MY now for only say 2 years, is not worth solving the gas problem.. financially speaking - I'll pay much more for that. Cant deny it'd be much more fun though! its torque and acceleration about 3 times more than Outlander PHEV.

I've been wrestling with this for months. I can get a MYP now but I'm holding on to my Jeep. I just got a new transmission (limetime warranty repair) so I'm feeling "iffy-hand-waggly" and wondering if it's time for things to start going "pop" one after another at 100k.

I dealt with a bad tank of gas all last week which made me shit a brick when I got misfire warnings for several days after rounds of trouble shooting. Luckily it cleared up with a fresh tank.

My worry is that if I buy a MYP now the resale to get a CT won't be as strong in 18 months as it is now, if the supply and economy normalize. But then again my Jeep won't be worth more than it is right now.
Exactly!! Well in my case I am not worried about mechanical condition as its under 8 year warranty and only 72k km, but you do exactly understand what I mean!
Like I said above, paying so much tax for 2 years and then selling makes no financial sense (and we cant make decisions, hoping that Tesla offers a good trade in value, close to market value).
 

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If you are leasing, there is no depreciation. You don’t own the car when it’s done so that’s meaningless.

The big difference I see is you aren’t accounting for the fact that when this is over, you would still own the Kona and can sell/ trade it in. The Outlander would be gone/ worth nothing to you.

So in 2 years you’d be able to sell that Kona for $14k according to your numbers above. That’s a pretty big win in the Kona column.
 


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Yep. I'm right at the window for the consumables. Shocks, belts, sparkplugs, timing chain in the next 20-30k. Besides, that I only have one off-road trip planned, and that's not until the end of summer. Normally, we drive to Nantucket and do a little beach driving, but this year we're just flying and borrowing a friend's car.

Not driving to Colorado and wheeling later this summer either.

Like the OP... The question is just how soon would Tesla get to building a CTQ reservation #18000 or so, in my particular region? Do I take advantage of my trade and skip the big scheduled maintenance events?

I can have a MYP in 6-12 weeks.
  • 2021 MYPs are now selling for >$70k
  • My Jeep is trading for the price I paid for it originally
  • New MYP prices are only going to go up before the end of the year due to general global supply shortages. Shanghai is still backlogged with global imports/exports that haven't moved an inch in 7 weeks. The time it'll take for this to ripple and straighten out . . . ??? pfft.
  • Gas prices have already been climbing and it's not peak season in the U.S., so EVs will easily save you $3-4k by the end of the first year.
  • My Jeep gets 14 miles per gallon
Getting a MYP will freeze the trade value of my Jeep in the price of the MY instead of another year of wear and tear waiting for the CT. Fuel savings offsets taxes and then some. I avoid $2k of repair work that essentially takes away from what I'd ultimately get for my Jeep.

Yeah... I'm thinkin...

Note to OP... Don't lease if you're thinking about doing this.
 

Ogre

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I can have a MYP in 6-12 weeks.
  • 2021 MYPs are now selling for >$70k
  • My Jeep is trading for the price I paid for it originally
  • New MYP prices are only going to go up before the end of the year due to general global supply shortages. Shanghai is still backlogged with global imports/exports that haven't moved an inch in 7 weeks. The time it'll take for this to ripple and straighten out . . . ??? pfft.
  • Gas prices have already been climbing and it's not peak season in the U.S., so EVs will easily save you $3-4k by the end of the first year.
  • My Jeep gets 14 miles per gallon
The only big question mark for you is whether you can tolerate not having a 4WD until you get the CT. I forget, where is your RN? Are you under 100k?
 

Dusty

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Way under 100k. The tracker says my reservation number puts me <18000 in the tri-motor line. I ordered early on the morning after the CT reveal.
 

Jhodgesatmb

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Congrats on the low (much, much lower than mine) RN. We are not going to sell our Model Y. My wife will take ownership and we will trade or sell the Model 3 (we are now a BEV only household) when my RN comes up. Good luck with the decision. Yes, we lose the taxes even if a car holds its value but there are also rebates to consider that offset the taxes a bit. Still, not an easy call.
 
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Carmageddon

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If you are leasing, there is no depreciation. You don’t own the car when it’s done so that’s meaningless.

The big difference I see is you aren’t accounting for the fact that when this is over, you would still own the Kona and can sell/ trade it in. The Outlander would be gone/ worth nothing to you.

So in 2 years you’d be able to sell that Kona for $14k according to your numbers above. That’s a pretty big win in the Kona column.
yes about lease you are 100% correct but the difficulty is finding a lease takeover that is less than two years remaining, at leas mid sized suv and not much more monthly payment than the Kona.

I don’t understand your next paragraph, in two years I should probably have more equit in the kona, assuming gas cars don’t start hitting the bottom like a rock in value.
The phev is an unknown, are you saying phev valiue would be near 0, worse than gas cars?
I am thinking that if I were to take only 5 year financing on the 19 outlander phev, I should generally stay ahead of the depreciation, especially as it should not keep dropping as fast as first few years of life..

how do you figure 14k?
if current (crazy) market value is 28k or so, and calculator says 9k depreciation, so should be around the 20k ballpark, no?
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