Is the CT GigaPress on site?

[Jhodgesatmb]

The 8k Giga Presses for the CT are repeatedly going to be on the east side of the casting building. Before the walls went up the foundations had not been set. The large bay doors I believe can accommodate the IDRA containers/boxes. But if not then like Crissa said, Tesla has removed the walls before.

The bridge crane "should" be installed prior to 8k foundations but not necessarily, to allow the lifts to be able to properly install the crane without foundations and or giga presses in the way.

Remember, Tesla is focusing on the massive backlog of the Model Y first since it will be easier to ramp up than an alien technology Cybertruck. I anticipate all six 6k giga presses installed first before even the foundations are set for the 8k.

And to get get a better idea of a timeline for the 8k giga press completion. It took 3-4 weeks to set the foundations of the 6k GP and around 2 months to assemble the GP. So, whenever we see the start of a new foundation then we are looking at around 3 months before that GP is operational.

The two pads on the west side had much more foundation than the other pads on the west side, suggesting that they would be for the larger presses.

Where did this “purported” information come from?

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[Ogre]

Good math. I didn't want to make my previous post longer than it was but they technically have room for 16 Giga Presses in that footprint. I think that expansion won't happen until 2024 or 2025 though.

Yeah, I noticed the 2 big empty holes in there. I figure it’s 2 GP for each 250k units/ year. So that would put capacity at about 2m units per year which seems about right for the square footage. It’s going to take them a few years to get there though.

When people talk about them bringing on new factories I don’t think they realize exactly how much headroom Texas has. Currently US production is ~650k. Giga Texas will likely bring it to 2.6m/ year. That’s a 4x capacity expansion in 3-4 years.

Also… I would love to see 6 gigapresses cranking out 120 Cybertrucks per hour. That’s one leaving the factory every 30 seconds. Like a Cybertruck machine gun with the other barrel shooting out Model Ys at the same rate. Insane.

 

[Crissa]

Where did this “purported” information come from?

That was guesses by Tegelmeyer, I think, before the holes were dug.

I think it's mostly right.

-Crissa

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

That was guesses by Tegelmeyer, I think, before the holes were dug.

I think it's mostly right.

-Crissa

Joe and Jeff are guessing and I’d take their guesses with a pound of salt. I love Joe’s videos and he provides a lot of extra information but I view what he produces as documentation. If he, Jeff, Randy, or whomever video an IDRA box or hear of an IDRA shipment flying in that is data and not speculation. Guessing, for example, that an area will be a plastics area is something I ignore.

The last I saw there were no pads on the east side, at all, and that is not good news at all if the CT casting machines are to go there.

 

[Ogre]

The last I saw there were no pads on the east side, at all, and that is not good news at all if the CT casting machines are to go there.

If production is late 2022, it’s likely we won’t see the casting machines for some time yet. Paying for equipment sitting idle for months at a time is not good business. They were still installing Gigapresses for Model Y production last month. That’s ~3 months prior to production start. I’d expect something similar ramp for the CT, a few months before production starts we’ll see the presses roll in. (Or not… they might just stealth them in in the middle of the night, we only have so many spies).

 

[CyberT]

The last I saw there were no pads on the east side, at all, and that is not good news at all if the CT casting machines are to go there.

Remember the priority is Model Y and not Cybertruck. There are currently 6 foundation pads on the westside that are all under 1 bridge crane which makes me think that they are all 6k Giga Presses. I've gone back to review a lot of Joe Tegtmeyer's footage today and I do not see anything that leads me to believe that these foundation pads are larger than others, meaning 8k Giga Press foundations.

I mentioned earlier that once the foundation pads have started to be laid out then it's at the earliest 3 months before the Giga Presses become operational. That being said, CT production is slated to start about 1 year from now, so I am not worried that the eastside is still empty. I would be worried if it were June 2022 and the eastside was still barren.

 

[CyberT]

If production is late 2022, it’s likely we won’t see the casting machines for some time yet. Paying for equipment sitting idle for months at a time is not good business. They were still installing Gigapresses for Model Y production last month. That’s ~3 months prior to production start. I’d expect something similar ramp for the CT, a few months before production starts we’ll see the presses roll in. (Or not… they might just stealth them in in the middle of the night, we only have so many spies).

haha you beat me by 2 mins

 

[Crissa]

The last I saw there were no pads on the east side, at all, and that is not good news at all if the CT casting machines are to go there.

They had been laying concrete before the wall finished.

As a point, the crates for the new press were seen at the beginning of summer. The massive crane for SpaceX seen in Germany months later arrived on site last week. So it should have gotten here already.

-Crissa

 

[CyberT]

Joe and Jeff are guessing and I’d take their guesses with a pound of salt. I love Joe’s videos and he provides a lot of extra information but I view what he produces as documentation.

I take Joe's information more than a pound of salt. He has his boots on-site every other day, which is more than me just being an arm-chair expert at something until 1 year ago I really didn't understand. But watching the quadsquad videos nearly every day I understand more and more. These are very informative videos. Joe has made several contacts that let him in on timelines and many other helpful bits of information that he shares in his videos. I am not saying EVERYTHING is fact or always correct but it is our best lead into what's happening there.

 

[Ogre]

I mentioned earlier that once the foundation pads have started to be laid out then it's at the earliest 3 months before the Giga Presses become operational. That being said, CT production is slated to start about 1 year from now, so I am not worried that the eastside is still empty. I would be worried if it were June 2022 and the eastside was still barren.

It would not hurt my feelings if they started installing the equipment sooner.

Next week would be good in fact. May is before the end of 2022 last I checked.

 

[CyberT]

They had been laying concrete before the wall finished.

As a point, the crates for the new press were seen at the beginning of summer. The massive crane for SpaceX seen in Germany months later arrived on site last week. So it should have gotten here already.

-Crissa

Remember that Elon spoke of massive logistics issues Tesla had last quarter with not being able to find enough ships. Possibly something could have happened with IDRA.

From an article https://www.torquenews.com/14335/idra-teslas-giga-press-manufacturer-set-release-documentary "To ship a Giga Press oversees, Idra filled 12 open top 40 foot containers and 12 self supporting independent cases. The weight was between 3.5 and 70 tons for each of the packages. To ship oversees requires very special packaging by boat." Sounds like it is a pain in the ass to ship half-way around the world and we can only assume that IRDA, like Tesla is production constraint. I mean Tesla ordered 9 additional Giga Presses and all are expected to be delivered by the end of 2021.

 

[Jhodgesatmb]

Remember the priority is Model Y and not Cybertruck. There are currently 6 foundation pads on the westside that are all under 1 bridge crane which makes me think that they are all 6k Giga Presses. I've gone back to review a lot of Joe Tegtmeyer's footage today and I do not see anything that leads me to believe that these foundation pads are larger than others, meaning 8k Giga Press foundations.

I mentioned earlier that once the foundation pads have started to be laid out then it's at the earliest 3 months before the Giga Presses become operational. That being said, CT production is slated to start about 1 year from now, so I am not worried that the eastside is still empty. I would be worried if it were June 2022 and the eastside was still barren.

There is no bridge crane over the last 2 pads, and they have enough presses assembled and tested (as evidenced already) to start Model Y production. I do not know why we are arguing about this. The east side hasn't even begun putting pads in yet, let alone bridge cranes, and we all know that the CT is a personal favorite of Elon's, so you are stabbing yourself in the back by insisting on this version of reality.

Your 3-month lead is not correct. The first pad they put in was ready for the press a week later and they started assembly immediately. It was being tested 2 months later.

I do agree that the 8K-ton gigapress is not the "pressing" matter, which is not an argument for either east or west side pads. Nor are the 4680 cells as they plan on starting cell production in the spring. If we are starting to see beta test CTs on the road, with statements to that effect from Tesla, then it is most likely not about the exoskeleton either. The only thing left is really HW4, and we are told that won't be ready until a year from now. That is something worthy of argument.

I might add that even Jeff has stopped banging the drum about a fourth press, as shown in your figures, since whatever that component is it long since moved. You really need to take whatever he says with a tablespoon of salt.

 

[Ogre]

The only thing left is really HW4, and we are told that won't be ready until a year from now.

Musk said it would be about a year from AI day which was more than 2 months ago. If HW4 is the only holdup and they hit the August date, I’ll take it.

 

[CyberT]

There is no bridge crane over the last 2 pads, and they have enough presses assembled and tested (as evidenced already) to start Model Y production. I do not know why we are arguing about this. The east side hasn't even begun putting pads in yet, let alone bridge cranes, and we all know that the CT is a personal favorite of Elon's, so you are stabbing yourself in the back by insisting on this version of reality.

No argument from me, I apologize if it came across that I was invalidating your views. I'll clarify a couple of points I was trying to make.
1st is that there will only likely be 2 Bridge Cranes in the Casting area. One covers North to South on the East Bay and another covers the North to South on the West Bay. Both sections "old and new" bridge rails line up with each other so hence why I think there will only be two Bridge Cranes.

2nd is The fact that there are no pads on the Eastside makes me believe that the Eastside will be for Cybertruck since it is easier to access due to the large bay doors and the fact that the wall panels can be removed to bring any large equipment.

Your 3-month lead is not correct. The first pad they put in was ready for the press a week later and they started assembly immediately. It was being tested 2 months later.

3 months vs 2 months and a week are pretty close. I remember it taking longer than 1 week to dig out the foundation, lay the rebar, set the form, and then pour concrete and wait for it to cure. but tomato/tomatoe. It does take 2 months to assemble the Giga Press though https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tes...minum-melting-furnace-delivery-for-giga-press

I do agree that the 8K-ton gigapress is not the "pressing" matter, which is not an argument for either east or west side pads. Nor are the 4680 cells as they plan on starting cell production in the spring. If we are starting to see beta test CTs on the road, with statements to that effect from Tesla, then it is most likely not about the exoskeleton either. The only thing left is really HW4, and we are told that won't be ready until a year from now. That is something worthy of argument.

It's a bit more complicated than that. 2021 has wreaked havoc on part availability as well as on shipping. The supply chain for the CT has to be created and sourced. This alien technology is way different than any other kind of vehicle. It will take a long time to work out the kinks. Like Elon always says, Prototypes are easy and production is 1000 times more difficult.

I might add that even Jeff has stopped banging the drum about a fourth press, as shown in your figures, since whatever that component is it long since moved. You really need to take whatever he says with a tablespoon of salt.

Not sure what you mean by "a fourth press". Do you mean a fourth giga press? If so, then there are already 2 working GP, 2 that are being assembled now (maybe they have been completed, haven't seen them since the walls went up), and 2 more foundations that have been laid all on the westside.

 

[Ogre]

One of the frustrations we’re going to have to struggle with is soon it will become very difficult to monitor progress. Sure, the bridge cranes are pretty conspicuous, as are the giant IDRA crates, but only if our spies happen to be there on the right days. So far Tesla has done little/ nothing to really hide their progress, if they start pushing for 4am deliveries and tuck things inside quickly, they can obfuscate the rate of progress.

So far they don’t seem to care too much, but you never know.

I wonder if they would notice a small campsite in the woods behind there… perhaps an extra red Model Y topping off on occasion…

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