It’s looking like 2024 for Cybertruck deliveries

Mini2nut

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That is what I gained from yesterdays earnings report. it sounds like we will see pre-production Cybertruck’s running around Austin but volume production won’t happen until 2024. A few lucky buyers may receive their trucks in late 2023 however.

I have no doubt the truck will be worth it though. It will be a one of kind vehicle. What other vehicle will have a 3mm thick SS exoskeleton and looks like it was designed by aliens? Patience grasshoppers.



Tesla Cybertruck It’s looking like 2024 for Cybertruck deliveries 749A1609-37EE-4A94-A0D7-A9D7579CE384
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ldjessee

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That was your take away? Huh...

I had the opposite feeling, with 4680 production tripling, Semi NOT using 4680 and still able to get the range they promised (and that it will be at no cargo loss compared to an ICE truck, probably thanks to the extra 2,000 lbs EV Class A trucks get), that means that that ever increasing number of 4680 cells are pretty much for the Model Y and Cybertruck.

I think they are sandbagging. I am expecting (assuming no great depression or world war) that it will be more like the Model Y launch, early (in that it will be before August of 2023) and ramp quickly.

Obviously, opinions differ.
 

JBee

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They also dropped a motor which will make it lighter, and compensate for the extra weight the 2170's have in a pack.
 


Jhodgesatmb

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I didn't get that impression nor did I get the impression that it will be early. If Elon can get a beta soon then we should start seeing betas here and there. I don't know what the ramp rate will be but given how simple they are making it to build the ramp should be faster than Model Y has been. They did say there would be volume production in 2023 and my hope will remain with that. My internal clock will begin when we see the 9K crates delivered.
 

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I don't know what the ramp rate will be but given how simple they are making it to build the ramp should be faster than Model Y has been.

It's simplicity should make it faster, but it's novelty will add unexpected complications. Will the unique nature of a new process make it so it comes out as wash?
Not trying to be a pessimist just thinking out loud.
 

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I mentioned b4 but i wouldn't want the first year batches anyways. Think of models S X 3 Y...all first year batches are wonky, seems like year 2-3 are just more refined over all after learning from first year hiccups. I'll take a CT in 2025 please with red seats! Make it happen Elon!
 
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Mini2nut

Mini2nut

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Sorry, but I just don’t see SOP in mid 2023. That’s roughly 160 business days from now. It’s Tesla’s first truck using a brand new manufacturing method. Many unforeseen challenges lie ahead before volume production can begin.

2023 will be an exciting year for reservation holders however. We will finally see pre-production CT’s on the streets as engineers validate the various systems before production begins. The true dimensions of the truck should also come into focus next year.
 


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That is what I gained from yesterdays earnings report. it sounds like we will see pre-production Cybertruck’s running around Austin but volume production won’t happen until 2024. A few lucky buyers may receive their trucks in late 2023 however.

I have no doubt the truck will be worth it though. It will be a one of kind vehicle. What other vehicle will have a 3mm thick SS exoskeleton and looks like it was designed by aliens? Patience grasshoppers.



749A1609-37EE-4A94-A0D7-A9D7579CE384.jpeg
depending on your build reservation, for some I'd agree. I also think a lot of people are going to get their CTs in 2023.
 

greggertruck

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I don’t think it’s unrealistic. I don’t think it’ll be a/x slow rambling. But it might now be as quick as Y. Maybe Y in Texas speed but, hard to say.

Tesla has ramped each vehicle fast than it’s previous. Probably due to learning things each new vehicle. That’s led them to this vent up piece of steel.

I’m guessing 25k truck build capacity in 2023.
 

TyPope

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I don’t think it’s unrealistic. I don’t think it’ll be a/x slow rambling. But it might now be as quick as Y. Maybe Y in Texas speed but, hard to say.

Tesla has ramped each vehicle fast than it’s previous. Probably due to learning things each new vehicle. That’s led them to this vent up piece of steel.

I’m guessing 25k truck build capacity in 2023.
They've been assembling the Model Y at Texas since they had the line put together enough to do so. They've been building that line as they go. This makes it seem they were having trouble "ramping up production" of the model Y. They've been making the model Y at other locations so it isn't like they have to figure out calibrations from scratch.

Contrary to the model Y ramp, they've been building the CT line for a while so I would anticipate a faster ramp. If we are really being honest, the ramp to build the CT started a long time ago when they first started figuring out the battery and pack.

For the model Y in Fremont, they started taking orders in March of 2019 and in June 2020, it was in my driveway (ordered it on 4/20/2020). From my prospective, they went from reveal to driveway in 15 months.

Model Y started production January 2020 and deliveries started in March of 2020. My VIN is just over 14000 meaning they made at least 14,000 MYs between January and June. 5 months. That's not a ton of vehicles but I'll bet that we'll see first deliveries in June of next year and by the end of the year, the first 50,000 will have been delivered to customers.

Obviously, I'm talking 6 months of production and there could always be some crazy hiccup that pushes this to the right but I don't think so.

One more limb I'll go out on... I'll have mine by mid-summer 2024. I ordered mine when we got my wife's car... April of 2020.
 
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greggertruck

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They've been assembling the Model Y at Texas since they had the line put together enough to do so. They've been building that line as they go. This makes it seem they were having trouble "ramping up production" of the model Y. They've been making the model Y at other locations so it isn't like they have to figure out calibrations from scratch.

Contrary to the model Y ramp, they've been building the CT line for a while so I would anticipate a faster ramp. If we are really being honest, the ramp to build the CT stated a long time ago when they first started figuring out the battery and pack.

For the model Y in Fremont, they started taking orders in March of 2019 and in June 2020, it was in my driveway (ordered it on 4/20/2020). From my prospective, they went from reveal to driveway in 15 months.

Model Y started production January 2020 and deliveries started in March of 2020. My VIN is just over 14000 meaning they made at least 14,000 MYs between January and June. 5 months. That's not a ton of vehicles but I'll bet that we'll see first deliveries in June of next year and by the end of the year, the first 50,000 will have been delivered to customers.

Obviously, I'm talking 6 months of production and there could always be some crazy hiccup that pushes this to the right but I don't think so.

One more limb I'll go out on... I'll have mine by mid-summer 2024. I ordered mine when we got my wife's car... April of 2020.
Gosh, I love to be positive too but I just have some worries on the steel bending thing. Like, will it all bend the same?

Love hearing about your Y experience. Real world experiences are rad! My girlfriend ordered our 3 in late October 2019 and we had it first week of December.

I really wonder what speculation is on preorder fall off. How many do we think we will see disappear?

Is my spot in line (250k) even a worry? Will I suddenly be 100k in line?
 

TyPope

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Gosh, I love to be positive too but I just have some worries on the steel bending thing. Like, will it all bend the same?

Love hearing about your Y experience. Real world experiences are rad! My girlfriend ordered our 3 in late October 2019 and we had it first week of December.

I really wonder what speculation is on preorder fall off. How many do we think we will see disappear?

Is my spot in line (250k) even a worry? Will I suddenly be 100k in line?
I'm not sure about fallout from reservations. I suppose with interest rates heading up and the level of uncertainty also up, the fallout could be significant.

I'm not worried about the bending processes at all as it's pretty straightforward even for the thicker SS. I'm not currently an industrial engineer but I WAS an engineer for Johnson Controls and then General Motors Shreveport Truck Assembly Plant and I still remember a few things about setting up production lines. Aside from the giant castings and simplified assembly methods that Tesla uses, I see nothing unusual process-wise that will require any more care than any other assembly line process.

I would think that you'll move up in line for sure. All the foreign orders won't happen before US deliveries for sure. Further, it is my opinion that they'll pop out the most expensive versions first. Not because they need to see that profit sooner but rather because they want to make sure that whatever they put out is WAY ahead of the competition out there.

While my "spot in line" is in the 400k range and my "adjusted" spot in line is just under 149,000, I think I need to be ready to pay for my truck within a few months of first deliveries. So, that's what I'm planning on. I took a lot of the money I had set aside for the truck and put it into Tesla stock thinking I would sell enough to pay off the CT. However, with stock in the $200 range, I'm working on being able to leave that alone till it recovers. In other words, I want to be in a position where A. I don't have to sell stock when it's down. B. I don't have to get a loan for the truck. and C. My wife doesn't get too pissed because my truck is more expensive than her Model Y... LOL

At least I won't feel like I have to wrap the CT like we did her MY!
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