Jordan Giesige calls the Cybertruck a 'Sarlacc Pit' for battery production.

Crissa

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Jordan Giesige from The Limiting Factor calls the Cybertruck a 'Sarlacc Pit' for battery production... He estimates 60k tri-motor Cybertrucks will use 3x more gigawatts of cells than current Model Y production.

His final video in his lithium mine to battery line series is now available behind paywall: https://www.patreon.com/posts/hot-off-press-i-51903503

Watch the rest of the series on Youtube

-Crissa
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Cyberman

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Jordan Giesige from The Limiting Factor calls the Cybertruck a 'Sarlacc Pit' for battery production... He estimates 60k tri-motor Cybertrucks will use 3x more gigawatts of cells than current Model Y production.

His final video in his lithium mine to battery line series is now available behind paywall: https://www.patreon.com/posts/hot-off-press-i-51903503

Watch the rest of the series on Youtube

-Crissa
I agree, except for the 60K trimotor. It's 70K, unless you're getting the employee discount.
On the flip side, as an employee of SpaceX, you get a 15% discount on your rockets. I heard Jeff Bezos is applying... :D
 
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DarinCT

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If the CT is the Sarlacc Pit, what's the Semi??!?

(Sorry headed out, didn't see it if it was addressed)
 

rr6013

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Jordan Giesige indebtedness for providing his research, narrative and temerity to leap down 13+ Lithium rabbit holes.

I’ve got Li dust all over me and a metallugical degree coming in the mail. Takeaways:
Lithium Battery is far from a solved technology
10,000 acres isn’t large enough NV claim for Tesla(opinion)
If Li is keystone(pun) Cathode is the secret battery sauce
Russia may be Tesla’s Plan C
George Lucas wasn’t all plaid pants screenwriting McGuffins
 

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im not watchin it, cliff notes?
if he sayin that X amount of tri-CT's will use Y amount of energy more than the model y.

i mean yea, it will have a bigger batter pack. but 3X i doubt it.
 
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Crissa

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I agree, except for the 60K trimotor. It's 70K,
Units, not dollars, The trimotor has that double-size battery pack.
im not watchin it, cliff notes?
This is the cliff notes episode!

I'm not sure what he's estimating, the numbers on that slide didn't make sense. The battery in the trimotor is 2x to 3x larger than the Model 3/Y, but they make more than 6x as many 3/Y than his number I quoted. But I liked the Sarlacc comparison - because they need to make hundreds of thousands of Cybertrucks and tens of thousands of Semis.

-Crissa
 
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rr6013

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Units, not dollars, The trimotor has that double-size battery pack.

This is the cliff notes episode!

I'm not sure what he's estimating, the numbers on that slide didn't make sense. The battery in the trimotor is 2x to 3x larger than the Model 3/Y, but they make more than 6x as many 3/Y than his number I quoted. But I liked the Sarlacc comparison - because they need to make hundreds of thousands of Cybertrucks and tens of thousands of Semis.

-Crissa
Agreed. His breakdown analysis motif did start to fray in the latter episodes. The breakdown vernacular morphed into plot device as its science, maths and rationalization started driving outcomes in service to story structure. To Jordan’s credit, he followed the science when it led.

I had to grab the handholds he presented and mix my own take on the story arc. It was an insurmountable amount of science, technology and admirable undertaking. That effort will serve him well into the future as facts emerge, science distills and ground truths show what’s going on.

It illuminated Elon’s Rus-nod as a battery resource subtext behind an obvious jobs olive branch. Tesla weak bridges to resources, Elon would like to not be as dependent. Nickel is price sensitive and much harder to map supply onto Tesla’s 4680 roadmap. Interestingly water is 70k/da consumable found not just anywhere for Lithium production. That’s an unspoken real constraint.

George Lucas shoutout was fun commentary on his insight matching up to reality as Sci-fi storytelling‘s structural alignment with real scenarios unfolds. George wasn’t just making shit up!
 

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He estimates 60k tri-motor Cybertrucks will use 3x more gigawatts of cells than current Model Y production.
So what?
It uses more. What's the point of this? We shouldn't make larger electric vehicles because they use more power than small cars?

Jordan can go find himself an old Mitsubishi i-MiEV and leave us to our trucks!
 
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Crissa

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So what?
It uses more. What's the point of this? We shouldn't make larger electric vehicles because they use more power than small cars?
No.

Jordan is saying that Tesla, by constantly looking forward at the bottlenecks they face building out their capacity to millions of Battery Electric Vehicles, is five years ahead of anyone else. That the terawatts of battery production they have mapped out will be easily consumed by the new factories.

No one today makes enough batteries to fill as many BEVs , as ICE cars sell each year. But this is the path Tesla has penciled out, and has actually been building.

That anyone who think their numbers are puffery have not looked at the multipliers of trying to build millions of BEVs, grid-tied storage, and solar+battery systems.

-Crissa
 

firsttruck

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No.

Jordan is saying that Tesla, by constantly looking forward at the bottlenecks they face building out their capacity to millions of Battery Electric Vehicles, is five years ahead of anyone else. That the terawatts of battery production they have mapped out will be easily consumed by the new factories.

No one today makes enough batteries to fill as many BEVs , as ICE cars sell each year. But this is the path Tesla has penciled out, and has actually been building.

-Crissa
Exactly. Advanced planning & detail implementation.

This is why in a few years Tesla will be shipping a fire hose (several hundred thousands) of Cybertrucks a year and Ford F-150 Lightnings will be like a trickle. Ford fleet buyers willl find no F-150 Lightnings available to buy at $40K.
 
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But, this is not in line with Elon's wishes. Elon is hoping EVs will be a strong force that helps correct the imbalance in the carbon footprint of man. And, this limiting factor isn't working in Elon's favor. Elon doesn't care about the Hummer or eF150, he cares about solving the carbon dilemma. peace
 
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But, this is not in line with Elon's wishes.
To replace all cars and trucks with BEVs?

You're going to need the batteries.

The batteries are going to need the raw materials.

No one currently makes enough of either of these steps to hit that goal.

Hence, the announcements at battery day.

-Crissa
 

FullyGrounded

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To replace all cars and trucks with BEVs?

You're going to need the batteries.

The batteries are going to need the raw materials.

No one currently makes enough of either of these steps to hit that goal.

Hence, the announcements at battery day.

-Crissa
Nobody makes them, because big auto/oil have thwarted solar/battery vehicles for decaded. Elon didn't lay down as expected by big auto/oil, so here we are. This will self-resolve. As Elon said, we have loads of Lithium. Lithium is abundantly found on the planet. We just don't currently mine Lithium except for extreme psychosocial issues. So, give it time. Much of this is happening due to Elon rattling the cages, and EVERYONE finally jumping on the bandwagon of EVs. It's truly a wonderful problem. peace
 
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Crissa

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Well, there's lots of reasons we don't have the battery production.

But Tesla realized that their current factories were not going to scale to meet the demand. They would need thousands of Gigafactories. So they kept looking for new solutions.

Many don't believe that Tesla's battery projections are necessary or attainable or even understood how massive they were. Hence Giesige's series.

It's really in depth about how lithium batteries work, and the current state of the art, and why Tesla could be making these steps achievable.

-Crissa
 

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Jordan Giesige from The Limiting Factor calls the Cybertruck a 'Sarlacc Pit' for battery production...

Now I so want to see Elon cosplay as Boba Fett at halloween.....
 
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