Jordan Giesige (The Limiting Factor) : "We may not see the Long Range Version of the CyberTruck for a couple of years"

[Rutrow]

The Limiting Factor is out with his latest video and he is suspicious that the 4680s will achieve neither the gravimetric nor the volumetric density necessary for the Long Range CyberTruck for several years.

https://www.youtube.com/clip/Ugkx8n_1pNekzlDKXxx2rJtTtAH-bAMCXcV4

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[Rutrow]

For the full video, go here:

 

[ninja6r]

After watching it, I believe there's too many variables to say that. I think a lot can happen within a year, and the density may be low for now, but there may be a reason for it. If they can get it higher, I see no reason they can't do a 500 mile range Cybertruck. Pretty interesting what will happen in the next 7 years though. If they do produce more batteries than what they have products for, we may see Tesla sell cells directly to others or even individuals.

 

[Crissa]

Yeah, he says it might be too bullish of a prediction, but since we haven't seen the cells from a factory in the last year and some, we just don't know.

-Crissa

 

[RVAC]

They definitely can, if GM was able to put a 200kWh pack in the Hummer EV so could Tesla in the Cybertruck. Whether they will is an entirely different matter.

 

[Ogre]

From what I’ve heard, none of the batteries produced in Texas have gone into a car yet. Tesla is shipping Model Ys with Fremont batteries in them. The cathode factory isn’t even online.

The 4680 ramp is still very much up in the air.

 

[charliemagpie]

I feel he can't see over the next mountain.

Nevada is aiming at 500
Lathrop will grow to 100
Austing and Germany ~300 combined
1 more Lathrop 100

all operational by 2025-7 imo 1/3 there to 3TW

NEW INNOVATION

By now another 100,000 new employee's. Maybe more mines or partnerships, and lots of new project teams. Worldwide.

2025 to 27 ramping more ------------ another 1/3
2028 to 30 ramping more ------------ another 1/3

3TW

 

[thelimitingfactor]

Just thought I'd jump in here and say that there was a big 'IF' in that statement. Which is that IF Tesla doesn't improve their energy density, then the LR C/T might be a couple years away.

However, I've also said that in other videos that there's a LOT of low hanging fruit with the 4680 packs in terms of energy density.

Interestingly, the pack option they put in the first C/T might come down to cell supply: That is, whether the 4680 line ramps are dragging or the C/T ramp is dragging.

 

[flowerlandfilms]

Just thought I'd jump in here and say that there was a big 'IF' in that statement. Which is that IF Tesla doesn't improve their energy density, then the LR C/T might be a couple years away.

However, I've also said that in other videos that there's a LOT of low hanging fruit with the 4680 packs in terms of energy density.

Interestingly, the pack option they put in the first C/T might come down to cell supply: That is, whether the 4680 line ramps are dragging or the C/T ramp is dragging.

Thank you for the clarification.

 

[hooptycam]

After watching it, I believe there's too many variables to say that. I think a lot can happen within a year, and the density may be low for now, but there may be a reason for it. If they can get it higher, I see no reason they can't do a 500 mile range Cybertruck. Pretty interesting what will happen in the next 7 years though. If they do produce more batteries than what they have products for, we may see Tesla sell cells directly to others or even individuals.

We have to be kidding. It’s one of the main reasons I’m getting the truck. And now to learn it could years before they make a 500 mile range product? Noooooooooo

 

[Ogre]

We have to be kidding. It’s one of the main reasons I’m getting the truck. And now to learn it could years before they make a 500 mile range product? Noooooooooo

Read the reply 2 above yours (From the guy who did the video).

If Tesla delivers the improved chemistry the 500 mile truck will be first. Presumably that’s what the cathode factory on site is designed to do.

 

[Sirfun]

Just thought I'd jump in here and say that there was a big 'IF' in that statement. Which is that IF Tesla doesn't improve their energy density, then the LR C/T might be a couple years away.

However, I've also said that in other videos that there's a LOT of low hanging fruit with the 4680 packs in terms of energy density.

Interestingly, the pack option they put in the first C/T might come down to cell supply: That is, whether the 4680 line ramps are dragging or the C/T ramp is dragging.

Welcome to the Forum. It was a nice surprise to see your comment.

 

[Rutrow]

Just thought I'd jump in here and say that there was a big 'IF' in that statement. Which is that IF Tesla doesn't improve their energy density, then the LR C/T might be a couple years away.

However, I've also said that in other videos that there's a LOT of low hanging fruit with the 4680 packs in terms of energy density.

Interestingly, the pack option they put in the first C/T might come down to cell supply: That is, whether the 4680 line ramps are dragging or the C/T ramp is dragging.

[tongue planted firmly in cheek]
Well Jordan, you can't do that to me. I reserved my TMCT seconds after Elon said "You can order now if you would like" BECAUSE it was advertising +500 miles of range. My Mid-2023 retirement date made EV RVing a possibility. I was hoping to have few months of pre-retirement shake down with the CyberTruck, but even one year behind schedule meant that it still might be available when I retire in June. Having you even mention the possibility of a few more years, without some qualifiers to soothe my anxiety is just mean. Caveat me some "not that I think this will happen..." pablum to temper my disappointment.

 

[GhostAndSkater]

I went down that rabbit hole a few days ago

The TLDR is that 500 miles Cybertruck is definitely doable with current 4680s, the pack will have to be double stacked

But the important point is, the pack would always have been double stacks of cells for it to happen, 4680s would need to have double the energy for a single layer 500 mile Cybertruck to be a thing, so Tesla knew that from day one

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/7397077/

 

[Crissa]

[tongue planted firmly in cheek]
Well Jordan, you can't do that to me. I reserved my TMCT...

Teenage Mutant Cyber Turtle?

-Crissa

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