Lets talk 4680

myco.rrhizae

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Lets talk 4680.

Do we know yet if Model S Plaid has 4680s? When is someone gonna strip that baby down?
Makes sense since they have had the Fremont prototype production line spitting them out for a while now.
I wanna know specs see pics

Another line of questioning:
Will Cybertruck only ship with 4680?
Will Austin production be dependent on the cathode processing factory completion?

Haven't seen a dedicated thread for 4680 yet but the topic is permeating every other thread so thought this would help.
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Crissa

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Yes, we know it does not. The Model S Plaid is using 18650s. The formula in the batteries is their current one, though.

It doesn't make sense for them to use a different battery than the 4680 for the Cybertruck. They will be made in Austin.

Tesla has only said the Model Y is confirmed to have them at this point.

-Crissa
 

Sonnus

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Unfortunately, I am not as bullish on the availability of the 4680 compared to a year ago. Three months ago Tesla said they are 12-18 months away from volume production of the 4680. So, best case scenario is April 2022, worst case is July 2022. This may also be overly optimistic on Tesla’s part considering that this was mentioned during a Tesla earnings call to investors.

When the Berlin Model Y was announced it was mentioned in the beginning that it was going to use the 4680 from the start. But, the Berlin “battery factory” is just beginning construction now. If Berlin Model Y production starts in late 2021 where are the batteries going to come from? I can’t image they could produce enough in Fremont then ship them to Berlin but maybe this is the plan?

Then the Model S Plaid+ was cancelled. Elon insinuated that this was not due to limited availability of the 4680 but I think most Tesla followers read between the lines.

Panasonic seems to be the furthest along in 4680 planning (other than Tesla) and they are just starting to plan their pilot/prototype production. If this goes well then they will proceed to building a commercial scale facility. This likely suggests close to a year or more before Panasonic is sending large quantities of cells to Tesla.

I hope I am wrong about the 4680 but it seems that there are still a few more hurdles to jump before these are regularly seen in a Tesla.

Elon more recently said the Austin Model Y will be using 4680s from the start (similar to what was said about Berlin). Since reports suggest that they are getting close to production there then hopefully that means I am wrong about the delay of 4680 production. However, if the Austin and Berlin Model Ys start rolling off the production line with 2170s combined with the canceling of the Plaid+ then this would certainly suggest that the 4680 is still quite a way from mass production. I sure hope that the Austin/Berlin Model Ys have 4680s when they start showing up in the next few months!
 

happy intruder

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yes, the battery seems to be the limiting variable in the CT equation.....I look at the videos every day along with everybody else and I can't help but see the rain delays as a big factor in producing CT's in late December or early Ja nary 2022....which means, I have no clear idea of what 's happening.....I dont think my eyes are deceiving me....the 8-ton giga press is a ways off and if the proving out time is 4-6 weeks I think we are in for a long 6 months of wait and see....I am sure there will be many prototypes made prior to full on production.....so, bottom line to me, no matter how good Joe's videos are, I just dont see a good path to December/January producing any CTs......I could be wrong....just want it to work and not have hundred of bugs that cause the " bug fixes" software updates that mean noting.....so I'll just keep waiting and watching
 

JBee

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If the CT relies on the 4680 "structural pack" for it's frame, along with front and rear castings and exoskeleton frame, and you can't make structural batteries with 2170 or 18650, then there no doubt in my mind that CT has to come with the 4680s.

There would be absolutely no point in bringing a 2170 structural pack design assembly line up to speed and pay for that, just to mothball it a few months later. Plus I don't think a structural 2170/18650 is even possible, let alone worth it. I'd be expecting a delay rather than any last minute changes to what packs they will use. Spreading out 4680 demand to other formats only really increases the cost of 4680s, and is a step backwards because it also means the CT frame needs to support the lack of a structural pack.

This also logically follows with the MY, in that the Austin and Berlin models will rely on the 4680 structural pack and castings as the frame (that's what they are building) and not rely on any 18650/2170 at all. The underpinnings of the MY with 4680 will be completely different from the current models, and is likely to be much lighter weight because of it. Meaning they can reduce the amount of 4680s used as well for the same effective range.
 

Sonnus

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Yeah, I agree. I don’t expect a 2170 Cybertruck. If the 4680 isn’t ready then production will simply be delayed.

It obviously doesn’t make sense for Tesla to manufacture a 2170 Model Y at Berlin/Austin for 3-6 months then switch over to the 4680. If 2170 Model Ys roll of these assembly lines then that would be bad news for mass production of the 4680. It will be interesting to see what these factories start with.

I don’t think the cast front section for the Model Y guarantees 4680 production either. I’m sure the cast front section could be used in 2170 Model Ys too.
 

Mini2nut

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I simply can’t see SOP of our beloved Cybertruck’s until Q2 of 2022 due to 4680 battery constraints. We will see Rivian R1T and GM Hummer pickups on the road well before we see any Cybertruck’s.
 

Diehard

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Elon mentioned earlier in the year that 4680s are not reliable enough for production. I have not heard anything after indicating they have achieved sufficient reliability. Can someone that understand what that word means in the context of battery production spell it out for me?

Plans for Berlin and Texas battery production was in place long before Elon made that comment. Is achieving reliability only a matter of mechanics and there is no risk involved? Like you always will have some bad batteries in production lines and it is a matter of getting better at catching them before they go in the pack? Or it is a matter of science and all cells are unreliable to a certain extent and you can never tell which one is going to fail (a game of probability)? We just have to keep tweeting the chemistry and manufacturing process to improve reliability and it is possible that the science of it never pans out?

Basically the question is, if we have not already, what are the chances of not reaching sufficient reliability? If that happens, will CT go on hold indefinitely? Or we will get them and some of us will be just statistic with spontaneous combustion?
 
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Sonnus

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The fact that Panasonic is moving forward with the 4680 would suggest that the 4680 is absolutely viable. They have obviously had their best engineers look at the technology and commit to moving forward with it. So i have no don’ 4680 is good tech.

I just think mass production of the 4680 is going to be later than expected and that means mass production of the Cybertruck is going to be later than expected.

Maybe Tesla will just make a few hundred 4680 Model Ys and Cybertrucks per month for the first year or so? I think it’s more likely they make 2170 Model Ys in the thousands per month and 4680 Cybertrucks in limited quantities for the first year.
 

Yakuza

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If Elon is saying 12-18 months away for 4680, that means 36. “Two weeks” is perpetual, much less 12-18 months.
 

CompMaster

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4680 size is one thing. The chemistry and tech (like tabless) in it is a different story.
 

CyberGus

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I see 4 issues when it comes to developing the 4680 cell:
  1. New form factor. Batteries are already in a variety of shapes and sizes, so this is no big deal.
  2. Chemistry. This is an always-evolving process, and nothing new.
  3. Tabless electrode. It will be tricky to securely attach a strip of metal to the other materials without damaging them. This is an entirely new process.
  4. Dry Battery Electrode (DBE). This has also never been done before, and will require many iterations to get right.
If the cells have only a 10% yield rate, they can still go forward, except the cells will cost 10x to make. This is not practical. Similarly, even with a high yield rate, they need to be able to identify the bad cells in testing. One bad cell out of 1000+ can ruin a whole pack.
 
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