LFP Cybertruck

Tinker71

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Sorry I have to do it again. With the recent announcement that Gigaaustin will produce both 2170 model Y and 4680 model Ys and that GigaBerlin will start with 2170 is clear to me Tesla might be struggling with the 4680s. They also said they won't switch Berlin over until late in the year.

The specifications for the Texas Y with 4680/structural pack are nothing to brag about either. (although they might be sandbagging for now)

LFP batteries and LFP pack design has really improved since 2019. I can't find my source but I thought they recently said that over half the Teslas now come with LFP prismatic cells. We know there are no material constraints with LFP. They are a little safer and more durable.

So my question is why wouldn't Tesla make the 250-300 mile range CT with LFP prismatic cells? Add back 2-300 lbs of structure and reduce the payload by that amount if need be.

My understanding is that mass produced LPF prismatic cells are currently 90 mm tall. The CT battery void is at least 160 mm tall. With the lower density and some intermediate structure there might not be enough room double stack the prismatic in the same space. This might require a 3 cm bulge in the floor pan. I would be ok with it if I got a cheaper CT2 faster.

If the LFP batteries could be made in the 4680 format then no redesign is required. Just a little heavier or maybe the same weight with less range than the CT3.



Tesla Cybertruck LFP Cybertruck 1650552110202
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JBee

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You'll also have a performance reduction on top of the range for the same weight. But it ls definitely not a volume issue to get enough LFP in the CT. CT4 will likely not work though.
 

Crissa

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Tesla is rumored to use yet another form factor - the blade - for the LFP.

They have said they have no plans to make 4680 LFP, and that they have a surplus of 4680 currently.

They said their decision was because Shanghai was behind - so I guess they're diverting supply from it to factories that can operate.

Why would it have to be that they are behind on 4680 and not that they have 2170s for nearly 10,000 cars just sitting around and thousands more every day?

-Crissa
 

Ogre

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A couple things in no particular order.

LFP 4680
They can make LFP 4680 cells, they might eventually, but right now they are unlikely to have the capacity for it and nobody else is making them. Tesla is definitely planning on making LFP cells in-house but haven’t revealed what form factor they will use. I’m sure whatever they design will be structural, might be 4680, or maybe something more like the BYD Blade.

But Tesla doesn’t have any LFP production online and haven’t even talked about bringing it online yet.

2170 Cells
Panasonic has capacity to produce a lot of 2170 cells that capacity doesn’t go away when Tesla can use 4680s. Tesla needs as much battery capacity as they can wrangle right now and they don’t want to be in a position where they have supply of cells but no vehicle to put them into. Having the flexibility to be able to revert their Model Y to 2170 cells gives Tesla options to ensure they can continue producing Model Ys regardless of how many 4680 cells they need for Cybertruck and friends.

Also, since they are switching more and more of their power storage to LFP, Tesla is freeing up even more 2170 cells. They will want to use every single battery they make up!

LFP Cybertruck
I don’t think we can rule out an LFP Cybertruck. Tesla has been flirting with BYD and the Blade battery might align well with the Cybertruck. Seems to me they would want it to be a structural battery though, not the sort of solution they did with the Model Y.
 


Crissa

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Right now, no one except Tesla even uses 4680s. And they only have the one production line that can consume them.

Right now, they have a surplus of 2170 cells just dying to go into cars. They diverted a bunch into storage last year, but they have excess car production in Texas... why not use it?

-Crissa
 

Ogre

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Oh. One other important thing.

The 4680 is not a disappointment.

It is a baby walking it’s first steps. Only a bit more than an infant. The fact that it matches the performance of the 2170 which is their mature platform is totally Ok.

Much like the 2170 improved over time, the 4680 cells will slowly improve as Tesla iterates over the design.
 
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Tinker71

Tinker71

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You'll also have a performance reduction on top of the range for the same weight. But it ls definitely not a volume issue to get enough LFP in the CT. CT4 will likely not work though.
On a just an absolute volume basis you are definitely correct. The volumetric density is only reduced by 25% or even less at the pack level. I think it comes down to columns and rows. If you miss a whole row due to the width of a standard cell it might be a problem and then there is the parallel vs series configuration requirements. If you can't double stack I bet the range would be below 200 miles which would be unacceptable to most.

Intuitively it should work.
 
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Tinker71

Tinker71

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Oh. One other important thing.

The 4680 is not a disappointment.

It is a baby walking it’s first steps. Only a bit more than an infant. The fact that it matches the performance of the 2170 which is their mature platform is totally Ok.

Much like the 2170 improved over time, the 4680 cells will slowly improve as Tesla iterates over the design.
Unless they are sandbagging I am currently disappointed in the 4680 model Y. With all their testing experience I don't think they have de-rated the batteries as much as they used to .

We don't know the actual or usable size of the pack though so it is hard to tell, but we should have seen more of a gain in just in mass reduction vs range.

I hope we see further gains from improvements in materials. I think many of those gains will make it to the 2170 as well. 4680 is not a magic bullet. Currently incremental at best.

Any progress is good progress.
 


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Unless they are sandbagging I am currently disappointed in the 4680 model Y. With all their testing experience I don't think they have de-rated the batteries as much as they used to .

We don't know the actual or usable size of the pack though so it is hard to tell, but we should have seen more of a gain in just in mass reduction vs range.

I hope we see further gains from improvements in materials. I think many of those gains will make it to the 2170 as well. 4680 is not a magic bullet. Currently incremental at best.

Any progress is good progress.
First, I don‘t think we’re getting the whole story on the 4680 cells. The numbers don’t seem to add up and a lot of people are confused by them. I would not be surprised to see the EPA numbers get updated at some point.

Tesla isn’t building 2170 cells so improvements Tesla makes won’t necessarily make it into the 2170. As much as Tesla wants their suppliers to provide great products, Panasonic and the rest of their suppliers are now also competitors and they are not going to share all of their secret sauce with them even though they are consuming their product.

We can absolutely expect the 4680 will improve at a faster pace than the 2170 at least for the first couple years. After a point, when the platform matures that will level out.
 

Throwcomputer

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Musk did not say they were making 2170 structural MY or cybertrucks for delivery at Giga Texas. What he said was they have designs for using the 2170 batteries in the structural packs as a risk avoidance plan in case the 4680 production suffers in 2023 due to unforseen material supply or covid labor restrictions. They said they have more than enough 4680 cells on hand and manufacturing capacity currently for their best projected MY production numbers in 2022, and barring any unforseen material supply chain issues in 2023, they will reach volume production on 4680's to meet their demand for both MY reaching full scale production and CT estimated ramping production at Giga Austin for next year. He also said that other factories would transition to 4680 as material supply and production demand allow for an effective transition at those other plants. What this implied is their focus is on ensuring that any vehicles coming out of Giga Texas, MY at full production and CT at ramping to volume production by end of 2023 will not be hindered by a 4680 supply constraint, and they will not impart any internal supply restrictions on those vehicles coming out of Giga Texas by rushing to transition the other factories over before they have the capacity to meet full 4680 production volume numbers on all vehicles at each plant transitioning to 4680.

2170 structural packs are in design as an insurance plan for catastrophic unforseen issues.
 
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GnarlyDudeLive

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I would not at all be surprised if the MY 4680 is sandbagged. I could easily see more 4680s installed in the MY than required just as a cautious approach and leaving some head room in case of unforeseen issues. If no issues arise, you might see some of those reserves released as future OTA updated. Perhaps if the reserves are large enough it may even be a cost option upgrade to release more of the beast.

To me the above makes the most sense for the weight of the vehicle based on its spec'd mileage ability.
 
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Tinker71

Tinker71

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Musk did not say they were making 2170 structural MY or cybertrucks for delivery at Giga Texas. What he said was they have designs for using the 2170 batteries in the structural packs as a risk avoidance plan in case the 4680 production suffers in 2023 due to unforseen material supply or covid labor restrictions. They said they have more than enough 4680 cells on hand and manufacturing capacity currently for their best projected MY production numbers in 2022, and barring any unforseen material supply chain issues in 2023, they will reach volume production on 4680's to meet their demand for both MY reaching full scale production and CT estimated ramping production at Giga Austin for next year. He also said that other factories would transition to 4680 as material supply and production demand allow for an effective transition at those other plants. What this implied is their focus is on ensuring that any vehicles coming out of Giga Texas, MY at full production and CT at ramping to volume production by end of 2023 will not be hindered by a 4680 supply constraint, and they will not impart any internal supply restrictions on those vehicles coming out of Giga Texas by rushing to transition the other factories over before they have the capacity to meet full 4680 production volume numbers on all vehicles at each plant transitioning to 4680.

2170 structural packs are in design as an insurance plan for catastrophic unforseen issues.
I am just digging for anything that might speed up production. That said batteries are probably not the limiting factor. LFP blade or prismatic options might help cost and volumes for the lower tier CT but most likely wont impact production start dates unless NCA batteries are just too pricy to proceed with. Tesla is committed to their some time in 2023 statements and not in a huge hurry to jump through hoops to get it out faster.

The H4 chipset, 8 ton megacasting machine and SS folding are all probably higher on the critical path.
 

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While not the smoking gun that we are all waiting to hear about 100% certainty that CT's start cranking out of Giga Texas to reach full capacity by end of next year....I felt the statements from Musk regarding the CT and Giga Texas at Rodeo day and more specifically the earnings call yesterday are really becoming both more measured and confident that we should have no fear 2023 will be the year and by 2024 the list of reservation holders on here without their truck posting hypotheticals, desires, concerns, et al will be rapidly shrinking, and the posts and photos of everyone happily enjoying their purchases will be growing exponentially.

I was happy to hear the confident 2023 CT volume production and the 4680's are in abundant supply for MY ramp for the next year. Confidence, without all the candy wrapping of features, pricing etc.
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