Model Y Refresh (Juniper) Revealed

[JBee]

Real world means a "400 mile" pack doesn't give you 400 miles so it's not a 6 hour trip, more like 5, and yes I can usually do 5 hours without stopping and I'd like it to be my choice not the vehicle's. Following your logic there is no need for more than maybe a 150 mile range pack to avoid plugging in for a few minutes at a time. You also ignore the fact that a larger pack will be running at a lower C rate for the same power level and will last longer.


During long distance highway travel, when range actually matters, weight has a far lower impact than aerodynamics, plus the extra capacity would only add the weight of about one additional passenger. You notice a range difference when you carry a passenger? I don't. You also ignore the continued improvement in battery energy density which means extra capacity without weight penalty.

For me in AU with the M3P range is most definitely an issue. Non-tesla DC charging is some 200miles apart, which in our case means we're using a flaky 45kW charger half way to make it to the first SC. Theres only seven SCs in the state and its the size of western Europe or 4x that of Texas. In our case even just an extra 50miles would knock off 20minutes on our trip.

In our driving conditions, with rough spray on bitumen roads (high rolling resistance), windy and over 110F in summer, its hard to use under 200Wh/km at 80Mph even when "hypermiling" it. Going slower makes a 5 hour trip 6 or more. We don't have any city driving around us where you drive slow enough to make EPA range, here its open country and every electron is needed to move air and mass. So give some more kWh!

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[tingmo13]

why are we talking/discussing about MY in CT forum?

 

[BannedByTMC]

why are we talking/discussing about MY in CT forum?

General Automotive and Off-Topic Chat

 

[JBee]

why are we talking/discussing about MY in CT forum?

Because theres more to life than just CT?
At least for those where its not available yet!

 

[YDR37]

The Model Y is the best-selling car world wide.

Tesla does a lot of things, but their profits are driven by vehicle sales, and their vehicle sales are driven by the Model Y. To put it in perspective, for every 100 vehicles that Tesla delivered worldwide in 4Q 2024:

66 were Model Y
29 were Model 3
3 were Model X/Y
2 were Cybertrucks

It's actually more like 1.8 Cybertrucks, but I'm rounding up.

It's been suggested that if Tesla wants to sell more pickups, they could simply offer a Model Y variation with a short bed, so something like an electric Ford Maverick.

 

[dalton108]

It's been suggested that if Tesla wants to sell more pickups … .

I’m not sure that they do. I think they want to sell more Cybertrucks to recoup their investment and have the product seen as being successful. But, I doubt that they have an appetite for two completely different pickups in their portfolio.

… they could simply offer a Model Y variation with a short bed, so something like an electric Ford Maverick.

That’s what most auto journalists thought that they were going to do in the first place and clearly that’s not where they wanted to go.

I think they’ve already addressed the truck segment exactly in the manner that they want to, but demand is clearly not where they expected it to be.

Many people are thinking that the cheaper single motor variant is going to open the floodgates in the US in Canada and I don’t think that’s going to be the case. I think that the reason they’re gearing up to sell the cyber truck in China is to see how it does in their main market that isn’t affected by anti-Elon sentiment like here in the states (I’ll fight anyone who wants to fight me about Tesla losing market share particularly in California - it’s natural biggest US market - because of Elon’s political shift and actions souring sales there and elsewhere in the US). If the truck seems to do reasonably well there with an expectations I would expect a slightly scaled-down 2nd gen that they could sell in Europe.

Otherwise, I anticipate that it will be a niche product that doesn’t stay in production long in its current form and that it will end up being more of a technological tour de force that ends up informing other vehicles going forward, but that will not be viewed as a success in its own right.

I’m taking all comers for people who want to fight me. The line starts over there

 

[Mini2nut]

Tesla nailed the styling.

Too bad the 2026 Y refresh doesn’t match the 450 mile range estimate of the new Lucid Gravity. That would elimate range anxiety for potential buyers.

 

[YDR37]

(I’ll fight anyone who wants to fight me about Tesla losing market share particularly in California - it’s natural biggest US market - because of Elon’s political shift and actions souring sales there and elsewhere in the US).

No argument here. Tesla is clearly losing ground in the California market, which accounts for nearly one-third of US BEV sales. The only question is why, and Elon is a plausible contributing factor.

Nationally, Tesla sales dropped by 5.0% in 2024. In California specifically, the final numbers for 2024 aren't in, but they could realistically fall by 10% or more. Tesla sales were down by 12.6% in California through 3Q 2024.

The 4Q 2024 numbers will probably show that the Model Y and Model 3 are still selling well In California, but that their leads are shrinking. However, the Cybertruck's position as the best-selling electric truck will be challenged by the F-150 Lightning. And the Model X's position as the best-selling large electric SUV will be challenged by the Rivian R1S. We'll get the final score in a few weeks, when the California New Car Dealers Association releases their quarterly report.

Historically, the California market was Tesla's "launchpad". Tesla was founded in California, and their first factory was in California. Their administrative headquarters are now in Austin, but their engineering HQ are still in California. Their early success in California enabled them to spread across the US, and then the world.

The real danger to Tesla goes beyond lost sales -- their competition now has room to use California as a "launchpad", just like Tesla did. Two potential winners, as I see it: Rivian and Honda. Rivian sales in California were up 35% on the year through 3Q 2024, and they may have finally turned profitable in 4Q 2024 (no numbers yet). And the Honda Prologue (along with the "luxury twin" Acura ZDX) has seemingly come out of nowhere, yet was the third best-selling EV in the country in November, behind only the Model Y and Model 3.

 

[YDR37]

Otherwise, I anticipate that it will be a niche product that doesn’t stay in production long in its current form and that I will end up being more of a technological tour de force that ends up informing other vehicles going forward, but that will not be viewed as a success in its own right.

So ... maybe something ... like a DeLorean ??

 

[dalton108]

So ... maybe something ... like a DeLorean ??

I mean I feel like it’s already way more successful than the DeLorean was. Ultimately, I think the DeLorean was probably more of a vanity project than it was a great car. I know people want to make the cyber truck out to be a vanity project too, but serious people know that that’s not the case. It truly is, as I said, a tour de force. I don’t think it matters how you feel about Elon. I don’t know any credible serious person in the auto space that wouldn’t agree with this.

DepLorean for the win!

 

[BannedByTMC]

Related Y/CT news:

Tesla is moving some workers off Cybertruck production teams at its Austin factory, according to three workers at the facility.

The shift has come as the automaker grapples with a rare annual decline in deliveries, which is seen as a proxy for sales. The EV maker delivered about 1.79 million vehicles overall in 2024, down about 1% from the previous year.

Now, some workers on the Cybertruck are being reassigned to produce the company's best-selling Model Y

https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-cuts-cybertruck-workforce-production-model-y-2025-1

 

[Beyond]

Related Y/CT news:
https://www.businessinsider.com/tesla-cuts-cybertruck-workforce-production-model-y-2025-1

This may or may not be true. It's possible as Tesla Is set to launch the updated Model Y and most likely wants to allocate more resources to that during the ramp.

But really, Business Insider is not a credible source of news.

 

[BannedByTMC]

One concern I have is people delaying a Y purchase until the new version is available which could hurt Q1 and Q2 this year.

 

[dalton108]

One concern I have is people delaying a Y purchase until the new version is available which could hurt Q1 and Q2 this year.

Will. Not could.

 

[SteelMyHeart]

I think Tesla needs to advertise on TV and social media. Ford and GM advertise blue cruise and super cruise respectively and if people are at all impressed by that then FSD will blow them away. 8k for an always improving personal chauffer for the lifetime of your vehicle is a great deal. Most people I know are well educated and make a good amount of money and their knowledge of Tesla features, especially FSD and even EVs in general is terrible.

General public thinks EV are overpriced, less reliable than ICE, and range is too short. Each headline about Tesla recalling essentially every vehicle hurts perception even though most recalls are simple OTA fixes. All these concerns are mostly myths but perception is reality.

I think the new model Y will cause the stock to drop in the short term as it likely doesn't have enough new features to justify current Tesla owners upgrading so investors will sell. Steer by wire, significantly more range and powershare would have helped.

I also think Tesla needs to tie their energy business more to their vehicles. That business is growing fast and it creates network effects like Apple products do. If you buy a Tesla with powershare or get a powerwall with solar panels and charge on solar and/or can power your house it creates a disincentive to get an ICE car or a rivian etc. because you are giving up your generator.

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