MEDICALJMP

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Morgan Stanley estimates Tesla Cybertruck production to hit 100k/year in 2025

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-cybertruck-production-100k-2025-morgan-stanley/

Posted on March 30, 2021

Morgan Stanley forecasted that Tesla would produce just under 100,000 Cybertrucks by FY 2025 in a report about 6 key considerations that mattered to the EV startup.

“We forecast 1,000 units of Cybertruck in FY21, ramping to 20k in FY22, 50k in FY23 and just under 100k in FY25,” wrote Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas in a recent report.

To some TSLA investors, Morgan Stanley’s estimates might be incredibly conservative. During Tesla’s 2019 Q4 earnings call, Elon Musk hinted that the demand for the Cybertruck hit levels that the company had never seen before, which means a lot considering the demand for the Model 3 at the time.

“I have never seen actually such a level of demand at this–we’ve never seen anything like it basically. I think we will make as about as many as we can sell for many years. So–as many–we’ll sell as many as we can make, it’s going to be pretty nuts,” Musk said about the Cybertruck.

Tesla has not stated its target annual output for Cybertruck production yet. It is currently working on the construction of Gigafactory Texas, where the first Cybertrucks will be built. It may be difficult for some to justify Morgan Stanley’s production estimates for the Cybertruck partly because Giga Texas is also known as Tesla’s Cybertruck Factory.

Tesla seems to have big plans for Giga Texas. A portion of the facility will be dedicated to the Cybertruck’s production. Producing 100K in one year would mean Tesla was building less than 2,000 Cybertruck vehicles per week by 2025, about four years through its production at Giga Texas.

Ford produces over 1,000 trucks per day, plant manager Debbie Manzano told the Detroit Free Press last year. Manzano oversees a Ford F-150 assembly line which operates seven days a week.





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Jhodgesatmb

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Is Morgan Stanley ever right in its predictions? I only ask because it seems as though Wall Street has its own way of deciding the future and often falls short. Part of why I ask is selfish of course. I won’t be happy unless Tesla [way] surpasses 100K CTs in 2022.
 

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Is Morgan Stanley ever right in its predictions? I only ask because it seems as though Wall Street has its own way of deciding the future and often falls short. Part of why I ask is selfish of course. I won’t be happy unless Tesla [way] surpasses 100K CTs in 2022.
I feel the same way. Maybe because I'm #200,000 in line...
 

FullyGrounded

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Morgan Stanley isn't in the business of setting production numbers for auto manufacturers, but they're doing what they do to adjust their rating on the share price, in light of the CT coming online. IOW, don't hang your hat on the numbers that Morgan Stanley brings - it's only a baseline. The market will adjust to that estimate, then depending on actual, adjust for that later. peace
 

Diehard

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Even if Tesla started with 1000 a day on day one (I know it sounds ridiculous), It would take 3 years before I get mine. By MS estimate, I should get mine sometime after 2030. In the absence of an estimate from Tesla, even if reality falls somewhere in between I may have to get real and get me some wheels. This is just depressing.
 

Diehard

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Yes, this prediction makes no sense. The Model 3 hasn't been out for four years yet and Tesla has already delivered over 800k units.

-Crissa
That includes Non-US production. If CT production is similar to M3 in US, we may see numbers like this for the first four years:

1617223727438.png


Still depressing at #700,000
 

Iacemoe

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That includes Non-US production. If CT production is similar to M3 in US, we may see numbers like this for the first four years:

1617223727438.png


Still depressing at #700,000
They didn't have a terafactory that was specifically designed and engineered to prodduce their vehicles with the model 3. They literally made them in a tent. You could be right, but I'll take the over on that bet.
 

Sirfun

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So let me see. I ordered a Dual motor the night of the reveal and then 9 months later ordered a Tri. If Morgan Stanley is even half right, there could easily be enough DEMAND for my used Dual motor, to sell it for $70,000 and basically get my Tri motor for the cost of the Dual.
SWEET!!!!!
Unfortunately I think I will more than likely end up with a his and hers Cybertrucks. 🤪
 

jerhenderson

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Even if Tesla started with 1000 a day on day one (I know it sounds ridiculous), It would take 3 years before I get mine. By MS estimate, I should get mine sometime after 2030. In the absence of an estimate from Tesla, even if reality falls somewhere in between I may have to get real and get me some wheels. This is just depressing.
don't be depressed.... Morgan Stanley is just being stupid.
 

jerhenderson

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They only had about 400K pre-orders globally for the Model 3.

And they fulfilled the US ones by the end of 2018.

I see no reason why they won't be able to do the same for the Cybertruck.

-Crissa
... and the vast bulk of CT reservations are in the US. Morgan Stanley is just trying to short the stock.
 

Diehard

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They only had about 400K pre-orders globally for the Model 3.

And they fulfilled the US ones by the end of 2018.

I see no reason why they won't be able to do the same for the Cybertruck.

-Crissa
I hope you are correct. I definitely could use the positive reinforcement. The pessimist in me keeps nagging that they sold less than 150K in US by 2019. CT reservations are at 1 million already with most in US and CA. But I have no doubt they have learned a lot from China and Berlin and I think even though CT is sharing the factory with Y, production capacity will be OK (my uneducated guess is 250K-500K by 2023) however with Smi coming online and MY selling so well, It will be interesting how Tesla will deal with battery supply issues. In his interviews, Musk has always pointed to this either directly or indirectly as a concern. If they want to get more vehicles out the door, they may have to reduce, Smi and CT3 production in favor of the rest, unless somehow he can produce and buy more batteries than we demand. Let's keep our fingers crossed he has a few more aces up his sleeves.
 
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They only had about 400K pre-orders globally for the Model 3.

And they fulfilled the US ones by the end of 2018.

I see no reason why they won't be able to do the same for the Cybertruck.

-Crissa
I tend to agree Morgan Stanley is shorting, so that’s the worst case scenario, but like Elon warned, could have production issues. On other hand, pre-building line at Fremont means production sooner. My question to all is when my 50k dual number comes up? Early to late ‘22 is my guess, maybe too optimistic. My’13 S warranty dies in December so maybe a Y to tide me over?
 

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