Crissa

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My question to all is when my 50k dual number comes up? Early to late ‘22 is my guess, maybe too optimistic. My’13 S warranty dies in December so maybe a Y to tide me over?
Same. My '13 Mazda has already aged out of most of its warranties. I plan on keeping it until the truck is ready.

-Crissa





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Huntsman

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Same. My '13 Mazda has already aged out of most of its warranties. I plan on keeping it until the truck is ready.

-Crissa
My hunch is MS is doing what they do - trying to find ways to make money, not Bad Ass EV bullet proof trucks. Let them do their business and let Elon do his. I predict 12 months after the first CT rolls out of TX gigafactory! production will be at or greater than 100k / yr. During that first year we may see some shows stoppers like a failed press but all the glitches will be ironed out in 365. Remember, the beauty of this is the simplicity in design. Master Musk has studied his assembly line and tried to tweak out the inefficiencies, not by Detroit methods but by his own, the man that reuses rockets and is studying the human brain for better computer interface, who bores tunnels under cities when no one else can, who wants to live on Mars... I think Morgan Stanley has under estimated this genius.
 

nitrohuck

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Yeah, one year after Model 3 was released, they were making 100K/year.

I'm just saying this Morgan Stanley report doesn't seem to match the fundamentals.

-Crissa
And the M3 requires paint, didn't have a giga-casting, and Tesla was still very much in its infancy in regard to making making vehicles "for the masses". The M3 was the first car that was much more accessible to the average earner in the US, and their first time having to aggressively ramp to mass production numbers vs the MS and MX.

Now they have half of an entire factory, their biggest yet, with a lot of energy to focus on the CT which by all means should fly off the production lines assuming nothing breaks, and batteries are in supply.

I wouldn't be shocked to see CT production at 200k+/yr speeds within 2022, maybe more?
 
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Jstoltz54

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They only had about 400K pre-orders globally for the Model 3.

And they fulfilled the US ones by the end of 2018.

I see no reason why they won't be able to do the same for the Cybertruck.

-Crissa
I’m not sitting RN # 400k, I’m at 1,771,000 and change, I know some pctg of that will drop out but I’m concerned about a 5 year wait. And Driveltribe says no one will buy the abomination? Someone needs a reality check.
 

Crissa

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I’m not sitting RN # 400k, I’m at 1,771,000 and change, I know some pctg of that will drop out but I’m concerned about a 5 year wait. And Driveltribe says no one will buy the abomination? Someone needs a reality check.
The reservation numbers are based upon all Tesla sales. The estimates are probably not taking in account the additional Model Y sales increases, but if you want to get a better idea where in line you are,
use 'verify' at this URL: https://sites.google.com/view/tesla-reservation-tracker

From there it will ask you to enter the numbers into the database.

-Crissa
 

Diehard

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The reservation numbers are based upon all Tesla sales. The estimates are probably not taking in account the additional Model Y sales increases, but if you want to get a better idea where in line you are,
use 'verify' at this URL: https://sites.google.com/view/tesla-reservation-tracker

From there it will ask you to enter the numbers into the database.

-Crissa
Crissa, do you have a rough idea what the ratio of CT to total RN numbers are? Based on the tracker, RN numbers have gone up by 153411 just in March. Trying to get a feel for how many of them are likely to be CT.
 

Crissa

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Crissa, do you have a rough idea what the ratio of CT to total RN numbers are? Based on the tracker, RN numbers have gone up by 153411 just in March. Trying to get a feel for how many of them are likely to be CT.
No, I have a feeling since the author of the tracker hasn't edited it in a year that it's getting more out of sync as other Tesla sales have increased.

They had prior used Tesla's sales reporting in their quarterlies to estimate what other sales there were and pull out the probable Cybertruck orders.

-Crissa
 

jerhenderson

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I tend to agree Morgan Stanley is shorting, so that’s the worst case scenario, but like Elon warned, could have production issues. On other hand, pre-building line at Fremont means production sooner. My question to all is when my 50k dual number comes up? Early to late ‘22 is my guess, maybe too optimistic. My’13 S warranty dies in December so maybe a Y to tide me over?
My Tri CT is in the low 40's for a reservation number; ETA of August '22.
 

FutureBoy

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They only had about 400K pre-orders globally for the Model 3.

And they fulfilled the US ones by the end of 2018.

I see no reason why they won't be able to do the same for the Cybertruck.

-Crissa
I would be WAAAAAAY happy if they can fulfill my CT3 order by the end of 2018.
 

Sirfun

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My Tri CT is in the low 40's for a reservation number; ETA of August '22.
I'm 38,000 with a Dual motor and delivery est. Sept. 22. So they are assuming Tri-motor deliveries to be ahead of Dual. But it's just a guesstimate.
 

jerhenderson

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I'm 38,000 with a Dual motor and delivery est. Sept. 22. So they are assuming Tri-motor deliveries to be ahead of Dual. But it's just a guesstimate.
yup.... dual makes sense first if motors are in short supply.
 

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