Morgan Stanley: Tesla losing market share to Ford Mustang Mach-E

MEDICALJMP

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Tesla is losing market shares to Ford Mustang Mach-E, according to Morgan Stanley

Fred Lambert
- Mar. 3rd 2021 10:20 am ET

@FredericLambert

Morgan Stanley is out with a new report stating that Tesla is losing market shares to the Ford Mustang Mach-E in the US.





The firm released its February 2021 US auto sales report and they found that electric vehicle sales were up by almost 40%.


Tesla still had majority market shares, but it fell compared to last year and Morgan Stanley attributes the change almost entirely to the Mustang Mach-E:


BEV sales outgrew the total market by nearly 40% (EV +34% YoY adj. vs. total market -5%). Tesla’s share of the BEV market declined significantly to 69% vs. 81% in the prior year. The Ford Mustang Mach-E accounted for nearly 100% of the share loss.

Here are some other electric vehicle highlights from Morgan Stanley’s US auto sales report:


  • While total industry sales on a selling day adjusted basis was -5.4% y/y, BEV sales came in at +34.1% y/y.
  • Tesla nominal sales estimated at +5.4%; Non-Tesla BEV sales +104.9%
  • Tesla accounted for 69% of BEV share vs. last year at 81%.
  • BEV penetration for the month was 2.6% vs. 1.8% last year. However, BEV sales likely account for a higher percentage of revenue given their higher ASPs.
  • Tesla’s 21,550 assumed US sales compared to the rest of the OEM BEV US sales of 9,527 which consists of: Jaguar, BMW, Porsche, Audi, Chevrolet, Hyundai, Kia, VW, Nissan, Volvo, Mini Cooper, Mercedes, Honda, Ford and Fiat. Tesla appears to be outselling the rest of the OEMs in BEVs by ~2.3x.


Electrek’s Take


It’s important to note that Tesla doesn’t break down sales as much as other automakers and registration data are not available in every state. The result is that Tesla’s sales in the market are estimates versus actual sale numbers.


Tesla also allocates production to various markets differently from other automakers.


Its monthly sales vary greatly month to month as it sends inventory from its Fremont factory to other markets.


I would also note that Model S and Model X production was shut down in February due to the refresh and Model 3 production slowed down due to part supply issues.


You can see those as excuses, but I think that’s relevant information if you want to look at Tesla’s deliveries in the US in February.


But despite all this, I think the data tells a story that we have been expecting and it’s healthy for the EV market.


Tesla’s market shares dropped as more EVs, like the Mustang Mach-E, are entering the market, but it’s overall deliveries have still grown in the US.


As I stated in my report of overall EV sales in the US in 2020, we are going to keep seeing this trend happening.


Last year, Tesla had 79% of the US EV market, which itself represented only 1.8% of the US auto market.


I think Tesla will dip below 60% this year, but it will still be growing in the US market as the EV market itself grows to around 5% of the broader auto market.


Next year is going to be even more significant, with higher volume vehicles and especially electric pickup trucks. In 2022, I see Tesla’s market share of the EV market in the US fall below 50%, but EV market shares in the overall automotive market are going to be over 10%.





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Sirfun

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I take this with a grain of salt. So often you have read between the lines on all this media stuff. Yes Tesla lost part of their market share. Duh, Way more EV's were sold then they can produce. Tesla sold all the vehicles they can produce, WITH NO ADVERTISING. Of course Tesla's market share will go down as more and more people want EV's and other company's produce a decent vehicle. That has to happen for people to transition away from Internal Combustion ONLY vehicles. There will be lots of Plug in Hybrids coming out. Guess what, none of those will be produced by Tesla.
Move on people nothing to see here.
 

firsttruck

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Ford has a unfair financial advantage. Both Tesla & GM/Chevy are being penalized for being successful early adopter of EVs. Tesla & GM/Chevy vehicle buyers no longer get the $7,500 federal credit. The $7,500 Federal Credit for Ford Mach E is a big factor in choosing it over a Model 3 and Model Y. Hopefully new credits available from Biden admin will restate a level playing field by including both Tesla & GM/Chevy.
 
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Crissa

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'Market loss' assumes a static 100 units and that Tesla lost sales to Ford.

But what actually happened was that both automakers grew the total market.

Electrek was right to point out how silly the Morgan Stanley phrasing was, but they should have done more.

-Crissa
 

Sirfun

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'Market loss' assumes a static 100 units and that Tesla lost sales to Ford.

But what actually happened was that both automakers grew the total market.

Electrek was right to point out how silly the Morgan Stanley phrasing was, but they should have done more.

-Crissa
Absolutely agree. They are saying Tesla is "losing" market share to Ford.
They are implying Tesla is losing customers to Ford. Totally false.
Tesla is increasing sales and Ford which wasn't hardly selling EV's last year, increased their sales also. What's next? They say Ford's increase in EV sales was more than Telsa's? It's semantics and twisting the facts.
Let's see how this all pans out over 1 full year. Next year when Giga Texas starts shipping vehicles will be even more interesting.
 

SSonnentag

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Morgan Stanley is displaying their ignorance on how math works. This is another example of "lies, damn lies and statistics."

If Tesla sells 3 cars one year and all others makers sell a total of 1 car, Tesla has 75% of the EV market.
If Tesla sells 6 cars the next year and all other makers still sell only 1 car, plus Ford comes along and sells 2 cars, suddenly Tesla only has a 66% EV market share.

According to Morgan Stanley, Telsa lost sales to Ford. Where is the logic in that?
 
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