Musk claim that model Y outsold every other car in Q1 disputed

Alpine

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Musk claimed on the investor call model y sales in Q1 of this year outsold every other model including the toyota Carolla at 412k units. Though Must didn't clarify, that # is said to be actually the number of MY+M3 combined.

Carolla sold 740k units in Q1. What gives?
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ninja6r

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Musk claimed on the investor call model y sales in Q1 of this year outsold every other model including the toyota Carolla at 412k units. Though Must didn't clarify, that # is said to be actually the number of MY+M3 combined.

Carolla sold 740k units in Q1. What gives?
I believe he stated "globally". Which, would be correct.
 
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Alpine

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412,180 my/m3 units sold globally in Q1 vs Carolla which sold 740,561 units in the same time frame globally. How can he state he outsold every other model?
 

cvalue13

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yes but this

https://www.autoweek.com/news/indus...-worlds-best-selling-car-nope-not-even-close/

Is Tesla Model Y The World’s Best-Selling Car? Nope, Not Even Close

Perhaps taking advantage of general media confusion over Tesla’s production and delivery numbers, Elon Musk claimed the Model Y crossover EV was the best-selling single model sold worldwide in the first quarter of this year….

Problem is, on all the charts we could find from Tesla as well as from fawning electric-vehiclesites reporting on them, the company groups Model Y production and sales with Model 3 production and sales. Tesla delivered 412,180 Models 3/Y globally in the first quarter, and we can’t find the breakout among the two.

We reached out to Toyota for Corolla numbers, and the automaker reports it sold 740,561 Corollas worldwide in the first quarter of this year, counting all versions including the Cross. That’s about 75% more than Tesla, even if you count the Model 3 in with the Model Y. Sorry, Elon, not even close….
 


cvalue13

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Despite the above, a quick search shows a dozen media outlets repeating Musk’s claims

Confused, I looked for the data
  • For Q2 2023, Tesla lists Model 3/Y deliveries at 446,915.
  • I can find nowhere breaking out M3 vs MY
  • I could not find global Corolla sales for Q2 2023
  • But Toyota doesn’t appear to officially release global Corolla numbers, all that can be found are estimates
  • Meanwhile, several media outlets do appear to consistently conflate/misunderstand that Tesla reports M3/MY collectively?

All in all? Not sure what’s going on in these numbers.

On one hand, not sure how Musk makes assertions about magnitude of MY numbers on an earning’s call, if Tesla doesn’t separately report Model Y unit numbers specifically.

On the other hand, Toyota selling >700K corollas in a single quarter seems … suspect. Though, in 2022 it did report selling 10.5M vehicles globally. That ~2.5M of those were Corollas seems… plausible?

Anyone know where Tesla reports Model Y broken out from Model 3?

Otherwise, would seem it would be only fair to compare Tesla M3/Y stats to Toyota Corolla/Camry stats?
 

jerhenderson

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yes but this

https://www.autoweek.com/news/indus...-worlds-best-selling-car-nope-not-even-close/

Is Tesla Model Y The World’s Best-Selling Car? Nope, Not Even Close

Perhaps taking advantage of general media confusion over Tesla’s production and delivery numbers, Elon Musk claimed the Model Y crossover EV was the best-selling single model sold worldwide in the first quarter of this year….

Problem is, on all the charts we could find from Tesla as well as from fawning electric-vehiclesites reporting on them, the company groups Model Y production and sales with Model 3 production and sales. Tesla delivered 412,180 Models 3/Y globally in the first quarter, and we can’t find the breakout among the two.

We reached out to Toyota for Corolla numbers, and the automaker reports it sold 740,561 Corollas worldwide in the first quarter of this year, counting all versions including the Cross. That’s about 75% more than Tesla, even if you count the Model 3 in with the Model Y. Sorry, Elon, not even close….
According to data from 152 markets, Tesla sold 747,500 units..... so yes beat corolla.
 

cvalue13

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According to data from 152 markets, Tesla sold 747,500 units..... so yes beat corolla.
Genuinely, where’s that data?

I’d like to understand the point

also, this is from Tesla’s own Q2 deck, so your confuses me:


Tesla Cybertruck Musk claim that model Y outsold every other car in Q1 disputed 1AB9A160-E36D-4B0A-8CA0-288B1FD229BA
 

cvalue13

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According to data from 152 markets, Tesla sold 747,500 units..... so yes beat corolla.
Still not clear what you’re citing

That story is about what Tesla sold in all of 2022, not Q 1 or Q2 of 2023?

And those stories go on to describe that in 2022 Tesla didn’t ourselves either the Corolla or the RAV4

In any event, I asked a specific question about where Tesla breaks out M2/MY sales, noting that media outlets seem to conflate Teslams reporting of M3/MY combined as being MY alone.


So, from where is anyone deriving data about Model Y sales alone, broken out, to make this comparison in the first place?

Because it seems media outlets, per the story linked above, are confused about Tesla’s reporting

But I’m confused that Musk would be. And his numbers don’t seem to fully add up

Tesla Cybertruck Musk claim that model Y outsold every other car in Q1 disputed 90C636B1-867B-4CE6-9CDF-74A2919E44F3
 
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cvalue13

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Found this story, which does a better but not complete job of sorting information sources

https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/tesla-model-y-becomes-worlds-best-selling-car-report

Most relevant bits quoted below.

Basically: Tesla does not report MY sales independently, nor does Toyota, so it’s left to analysts to try and back in to the global sales data of both a Tesla/MY and Toyota/Corolla.

Even with these clarifications, it leaves the conclusions or source of info unclear regarding Musk’s comments. It does appear Musk was just parroting the analyst’s reporting, which means Musk may not know Toyota’s figures - and the story above appears to have gotten those figures from Toyota.

“The Tesla Model Y topped the global sales charts for the first quarter of 2023, according to data compiled by automotive industry specialist of Felipe Muñoz of market research firm JATO Dynamics and published by Motor1….

The data shows Tesla sold 267,200 Model Ys [in Q1] which it produces in the US, China and Germany….

In second place was the Toyota Corolla … with 256,400 sales….

The caveat here is this reporting is based on JATO data for 53 markets, official data/forecasts for 31 other markets, and estimates for the rest of the world….

Given the narrow gap between the Model Y and Corolla and the latter’s greater popularity in developing markets, it’s possible the Corolla may still be in pole position….
“
 

Arctic_White

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Yeah, but is it lost on you that the Corolla costs half of what Model Y costs?

The fact that the Model Y is at the top in terms of sales despite being 2x as much expensive as the 2nd best tells you something.
 

Justinmo23

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Yeah, but is it lost on you that the Corolla costs half of what Model Y costs?

The fact that the Model Y is at the top in terms of sales despite being 2x as much expensive as the 2nd best tells you something.
That is a good point… putting aside the debate of “who sold more units?”… How about “Who made more money per unit sold?”… and if vehicle numbers are even remotely close to Toyota, then Tesla is definitely the winner.
 

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Musk claimed on the investor call model y sales in Q1 of this year outsold every other model including the toyota Carolla at 412k units. Though Must didn't clarify, that # is said to be actually the number of MY+M3 combined.

Carolla sold 740k units in Q1. What gives?
Normally, Toyota globally sells 1.1 - 1.3 million Corollas a year.

Toyota did NOT sell 740K Corollas in a single Q1 2023.
I don't think in all of history that Toyota has every sold over 400K in a single quarter.

For example in all of 2022 Toyota globally sold 1.1 million Corollas.

----------------------------------

Best-selling passenger car worldwide in 2022
Published by Mathilde Carlier
May 25, 2023
https://www.statista.com/statistics/239229/most-sold-car-models-worldwide/

Best-selling passenger car worldwide in 2022 (in million units)
1.12 Toyota Corolla
0.87 Toyota RAV4
0.79 Ford F-series
0.76 Tesla Model Y
0.68 Toyota Camry

----------------------------------

Tesla Model Y Was The World's Best-Selling Car In Q1 2023
According to JATO data compiled for Motor1, the Model Y was the first electric car to lead global sales for a period.
May 25, 2023
By Juan Felipe Munoz
https://www.motor1.com/news/669135/tesla-model-y-worlds-best-selling-car-q1-2023/

Tesla Cybertruck Musk claim that model Y outsold every other car in Q1 disputed 1689959069442


----------------------------------

2022Feb 20
Is the Toyota Corolla about to be knocked off as the world's best-selling car?
https://www.carsguide.com.au/car-ne...cked-off-as-the-worlds-best-selling-car-85875

.....
In 2021, around 1,312,500 Corollas rolled out of Toyota’s showrooms. That’s a tally that would be the envy of any manufacturer, and it also signalled the end of a slow slide in sales that’s been happening over the past half-decade.

The last time Corolla sales breached the 1.3 million mark was 2015, and sales have dipped into the 1.2M and 1.1M zones since then. In 2020 Corolla sales were recorded at 1,178,400

----------------------------------

So Far Not Great: Toyota Sales Are Sliding Down This Year ( 2023 )
Toyota is still one of the best-selling auto manufacturers in the world, but the company is seeing a sales slump.
by Joseph Parker Published on June 8, 2023
https://www.motorbiscuit.com/so-far-not-great-toyota-sales-are-sliding-down-this-year/

.....
The Toyota Corolla continually reclaims its crown as the best-selling compact car in overall annual sales, something it has accomplished for decades, including last year. But it seems sales for the automaker’s smallest sedan are holding back Toyota’s overall sales. The Corolla’s numbers were down 31% year-over-year in May, and the model is down a notable 21% in annual sales through the first five months of the year.
 
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cvalue13

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Normally, Toyota globally sells 1.1 - 1.3 million Corollas a year.

Toyota did NOT sell 740K Corollas in a single Q1 2023.
I don't think in all of history that Toyota has every sold over 400K in a single quarter.

For example in all of 2022 Toyota globally sold 1.1 million Corollas.
yes

though the lingering points, and resulting oddity:

(1) we don’t know how many Model Y were sold in Q1 - Tesla reports global sales quarterly, but does not provide a break-out of M3 vs MY, analysts perform back-ins

and

(2) we don’t know how many Corollas were sold globally either, as Toyota never releases these figures, analysts perform back-ins (including the 2022 1.1M figure you site above)

This is in contrast to, eg, truck manufacturers who participate in the “best selling truck in US” wars, and release their category data - those figures are typically US only, and direct info from OEMs.

So the resulting oddity is to have Musk assert it in an earnings call. He obviously knows how many Model Y are sold, but wrt Corollas numbers must be only parroting the single analyst, whose own data describes how his quarterly estimates are based on back-ins from only 50 of over 200 markets in which Corolla is sold.

Maybe this is just the business lawyer in me, but I find it odd that Musk is making this claim on script during an earnings call to investors, absent qualifications.

not suggesting any normal person should care, to wit:


Yeah, but is it lost on you that the Corolla costs half of what Model Y costs?
MY global revenue surpassed Corolla global revenue a long while back!

such old news Musk didn’t even bother mentioning it on earnings call
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