greggertruck

Well-known member
First Name
g
Joined
Mar 30, 2022
Threads
197
Messages
2,428
Reaction score
6,978
Location
Zimbabwe
Website
www.twitter.com
Vehicles
Dual-CT
Occupation
I post Cybertruck stuff on the Internet and people like it.
Country flag
If the automation is in place (not to be confused with full ramp up) I don't think 21k is all that high. After 4 months these numbers less then 1/2 of full ramp up.

Ford put out ~20k Lightnings deliveries their first year starting those deliveries in the summer. I think EM keeps these numbers in mind.

I know Ford just slapped a battery into a already developed truck...sort of, but we all know there was more to it than that.

However, the CT and GigaTX was designed from the ground up for production efficiency. That's why I still think 21k starting in September is still achievable if the automation is all in place ...we still don't know how the panels are being formed and assembled.
I have concerns over how difficult the stainless will be to work with.

However, what we have seen yesterday, and all along really, is very telling! It wont be one folded sheet of stainless with doors cut out as some have reached to imply.
 

SpaceYooper

Well-known member
Joined
May 23, 2020
Threads
44
Messages
832
Reaction score
1,484
Location
Colorado Springs
Vehicles
13' F150, 17' Explorer, 13' Cruz, 13' Clubman
Occupation
Retired USSF SNCO, REALTOR®
Country flag
Folks, hold your horses.

Elon has repeatedly mentioned that initial deliveries will be slow. A production ramp is like an S-curve: it starts off slow and then ramps up fast.

I expect less than 2K deliveries in 2023, and a whole lot more in 2024.

However, I hope at least one of us here gets their CT sometime this year!
Just depends on how EM defines slow and how we interpret that. Starting at 50 CTs/week is pretty darn slow.

Are we talking Rivian slow...which would be 1k-2k for the first qtr of delivery. Rivian is a start-up company, so I'm sure those numbers can be handily beaten.

Or Lightning slow...no real push by big Ford and losing money on each of them still managed to get about 4.5k delivered in their first few months. Surely Tesla and the purpose-built GigaTX factory can crush this number.
 

cvalue13

Well-known member
Joined
Aug 17, 2022
Threads
74
Messages
7,122
Reaction score
13,698
Location
Austin, TX
Vehicles
F150L
Occupation
Fun-employed
Country flag
Are we talking Rivian slow...which would be 1k-2k for the first qtr of delivery. Rivian is a start-up company, so I'm sure those numbers can be handily beaten.

Or Lightning slow...no real push by big Ford and losing money on each of them still managed to get about 4.5k delivered in their first few months. Surely Tesla and the purpose-built GigaTX factory can crush this number.
Though on all accounts, Tesla is doing something considerably more involved and novel than either Rivian or Ford. Not to say Tesla will be slow because of it, but only to say that the comparisons offered may not be too analogous.
 

Gurule92

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 2, 2021
Threads
131
Messages
3,024
Reaction score
6,215
Location
Colorado Springs
Vehicles
MYP
Occupation
"Cyber" stuff
Country flag
It will not be disappointing at all.”

I don’t know about that at this point.
- The middle front row seat seems to have disappeared from the original unveiling, that’s already one disappointment.
- The sail storage is seemingly gone, that’s another disappointment. I have a feeling the tailgate ramp is not gonna make it, if it doesn’t, that’s another disappointment.
- The truck bed in one of the last few clear photos show it looking a lot smaller, that’s another disappointment.
- Pricing won’t match the unveiling prices, this one is understandable but it’s still a disappointment.
You should probably cancel your reservation. I wouldnt want you to settle.
 


Arctic_White

Well-known member
First Name
Ray
Joined
Feb 8, 2021
Threads
4
Messages
301
Reaction score
482
Location
Edmonton, AB
Vehicles
Model S Plaid; CT on order
Country flag
Just depends on how EM defines slow and how we interpret that. Starting at 50 CTs/week is pretty darn slow.

Are we talking Rivian slow...which would be 1k-2k for the first qtr of delivery. Rivian is a start-up company, so I'm sure those numbers can be handily beaten.

Or Lightning slow...no real push by big Ford and losing money on each of them still managed to get about 4.5k delivered in their first few months. Surely Tesla and the purpose-built GigaTX factory can crush this number.
So let's talk about the ramp, shall we? Elon has stated September as the Cybertruck handoff event.

Let's say they do 50 / week by the end of September. If we assume they double, then double their production again, that's still just a few thousand productions in total for 2023. Delivery takes some time.

I maintain that we will have around 2K total deliveries for 2023, based on what the management is saying. This # is likely to ramp up fast by 2024.
 

Ogre

Well-known member
First Name
Dennis
Joined
Jul 3, 2021
Threads
164
Messages
10,719
Reaction score
26,996
Location
Ogregon
Vehicles
Model Y
Country flag
If so, presumably a majority will be ATX based employees?

Would mean that me and @CyberGus could be seeing these early fall
I suspect most will be the employees who designed and engineered it. So primarily Silicon Valley people. That and maybe leadership and people designing/ engineering/ overseeing the Texas assembly line.
 

Ogre

Well-known member
First Name
Dennis
Joined
Jul 3, 2021
Threads
164
Messages
10,719
Reaction score
26,996
Location
Ogregon
Vehicles
Model Y
Country flag
So let's talk about the ramp, shall we? Elon has stated September as the Cybertruck handoff event.

Let's say they do 50 / week by the end of September. If we assume they double, then double their production again, that's still just a few thousand productions in total for 2023. Delivery takes some time.

I maintain that we will have around 2K total deliveries for 2023, based on what the management is saying. This # is likely to ramp up fast by 2024.
My early number was 10k I’m sticking with it.

I think by the time the launch event happens there will be around 300 trucks per week and they build up a bit of inventory before first customer deliveries. That’s what they did with the Y.
 


Gurule92

Well-known member
Joined
Sep 2, 2021
Threads
131
Messages
3,024
Reaction score
6,215
Location
Colorado Springs
Vehicles
MYP
Occupation
"Cyber" stuff
Country flag

SpaceYooper

Well-known member
Joined
May 23, 2020
Threads
44
Messages
832
Reaction score
1,484
Location
Colorado Springs
Vehicles
13' F150, 17' Explorer, 13' Cruz, 13' Clubman
Occupation
Retired USSF SNCO, REALTOR®
Country flag
So let's talk about the ramp, shall we? Elon has stated September as the Cybertruck handoff event.

Let's say they do 50 / week by the end of September. If we assume they double, then double their production again, that's still just a few thousand productions in total for 2023. Delivery takes some time.

I maintain that we will have around 2K total deliveries for 2023, based on what the management is saying. This # is likely to ramp up fast by 2024.
Ok, based on what management is saying, I still expect them to deliver about 20k, because that is still a slow ramp up, just not a snail pace ramo up.
 

Ogre

Well-known member
First Name
Dennis
Joined
Jul 3, 2021
Threads
164
Messages
10,719
Reaction score
26,996
Location
Ogregon
Vehicles
Model Y
Country flag
Ok, based on what management is saying, I still expect them to deliver about 20k, because that is still a slow ramp up, just not a snail pace ramo up.
I’d buy that too. I think it’s a stretch though. If you figure the launch party is when they are confident they can hit 300/ year, that means in late September (current projected start date) they will be banging out 300/ week. So if you have 4 months of production, that’s roughly 17 weeks.

So something like this:

Sept: 300/ week -> 1200
Oct: 600/ week -> 2400 (3,600 cumulative)
Nov: 1200/ week -> 4800 (8,400)
December: 2400/ week -> 9600 (18,000)

That is doubling production every month which is far faster than any other ramp they’ve done. That seems pretty steep to me. I’d love It, but maybe a stretch?

10k… it’s 50% growth in production speed per month.
 

BayouCityBob

Well-known member
Joined
Apr 14, 2022
Threads
20
Messages
432
Reaction score
1,392
Location
Texas
Vehicles
2018 Model 3
Country flag
Elon said Tri moto first. (we all assume now that will be quad motor)
I literally has on the order page (lower right corner) from the launch that "Tri-Motor AWD production is expected to begin in late 2022" a year after the other models in "late 2021." So yes, originally it was supposed to be dual and single motor first followed by tri motor a year later.

Tesla Cybertruck Musk: Cybertruck delivery event happening in Q3 2023! + other quotes from earnings call screen-shot-2019-11-21-at-9-49-13-pm.pn
Sponsored

 
 




Top