Musk's battery promise: Inside by Reuters

rr6013

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One article of two published today quote sources, in multiple, that the 4680 battery ramp isn’t ready for production, yet. Tesla have achieved ½ the expected savings it promised just by physically switching to the new, larger sized form factor. The problem is the other ½. Scaling to production its dry 4680 chemistry Tesla lost the projected savings to rejects. Early yield figures, not stated in the article, were on the order of 50%+.
Tesla chemistry is toxic, evaporative, energy intense and high cost recycling the waste stream. Elon projections for 4680 production by 2022 is slipping schedule into 2023 and beyond. Process-ramping from Maxwell technology to economic viability at the 4680 form factor remains a scalability exercise. Tesla have yet to perfect the ramp. Optimism holds in the article that success is a matter of time working the problem.
The purpose of the article definitely informs the public, buyers and reservation holders of Tesla circumstances affecting cost, time and resources impacting 4680 projections in 2022 calendar year. Delivery of the 4680 battery in quantity for its products is questionable. And whether circumstances require Tesla to change its projections, operations, processes or financials is not addressed. The article uses Elon’s promise as apt metaphor instead.
Tesla Cybertruck Musk's battery promise: Inside by Reuters 8CBCC6FC-3B58-477E-95E8-BD56CFB7A671


Sept.9 UPDATE:
The Limiting Factor confirms in technical detail exactly wgat Tesla has and hasn’t done wrt: 4680
Sponsored

 
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cvalue13

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The purpose of the article definitely informs the public, buyers and reservation holders of Tesla circumstances affecting cost, time and resources impacting 4680 projections in 2022 calendar year. Delivery of the 4680 battery in quantity for its products is questionable. And whether circumstances require Tesla to change its projections, operations, processes or financials is not addressed. The article uses Elon’s promise as apt metaphor instead.
This makes it sound like the CT scalability is still… a long ways off
 
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Jhodgesatmb

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One article of two published today quote sources, in multiple, that the 4680 battery ramp isn’t ready for production, yet. Tesla have achieved ½ the expected savings it promised just by physically switching to the new, larger sized form factor. The problem is the other ½. Scaling to production its dry 4680 chemistry Tesla lost the projected savings to rejects. Early yield figures, not stated in the article, were on the order of 50%+.
Tesla chemistry is toxic, evaporative, energy intense and high cost recycling the waste stream. Elon projections for 4680 production by 2022 is slipping schedule into 2023 and beyond. Process-ramping from Maxwell technology to economic viability at the 4680 form factor remains a scalability exercise. Tesla have yet to perfect the ramp. Optimism holds in the article that success is a matter of time working the problem.
The purpose of the article definitely informs the public, buyers and reservation holders of Tesla circumstances affecting cost, time and resources impacting 4680 projections in 2022 calendar year. Delivery of the 4680 battery in quantity for its products is questionable. And whether circumstances require Tesla to change its projections, operations, processes or financials is not addressed. The article uses Elon’s promise as apt metaphor instead.
8CBCC6FC-3B58-477E-95E8-BD56CFB7A671.jpeg
I read the Teslarati bit and some of the quotes were clearly not from experts or those in the know (because they were inaccurate). That calls into question the entire article. Once again, if it comes from Elon or Drew you can believe it. From anyone else, don't waste your time unless looking for entertainment value only. It is unquestionably true that we are all starved for any information about the CT and any component or related system, but we also know that there is a massive effort, for whatever reason, to portray Tesla in a negative light, and a lot of it is coming out of mainstream media. I don't get it, but I am not going to lose sleep over these reports.
 

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This makes it sound like the CT scalability is still… a long ways off
That's been very apparent since the Cybertruck introduction. Now I admit I was overly opportunistic at the time of the Cybertruck unveiling. When I placed my order I thought it would go into production by the end of 2022 and scale up enough to get my early order in 2023. At #27,000 I'll be lucky to see my Cybertruck before 2024.
 

JBee

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Old News
Today
Berlin Tesla Production
Model Y build and selling EvCars with BYD flat LFP battery packs

Shanghai Tesla Production
Model Y build and selling EvCars with CATL MP3 flat LFP battery packs

Right Now Today
Three Tesla factories are selling EvCars with 3 different LFP battery packs

Tesla is no longer limited to the 4680 LFP battery format.

I think it is called not putting all your eggs in one basket type of strategy
Just a quick sidebar, there is no 4680 LFP, they are all currently NCM (lithium-ion).
 


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rr6013

rr6013

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I read the Teslarati bit and some of the quotes were clearly not from experts or those in the know (because they were inaccurate). That calls into question the entire article. Once again, if it comes from Elon or Drew you can believe it. From anyone else, don't waste your time unless looking for entertainment value only. It is unquestionably true that we are all starved for any information about the CT and any component or related system, but we also know that there is a massive effort, for whatever reason, to portray Tesla in a negative light, and a lot of it is coming out of mainstream media. I don't get it, but I am not going to lose sleep over these reports.
Process is trade secret behind many a recipe for success. I agree. I don’t give much credence to experts and question the optimism which perchance triggered Reuters to run with what they had.
 

firsttruck

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Did Reuters talk to Sandy ???

Here is an oldie but still good.

-----------------

Is Elon Musk Back In “Production Hell” With Tesla’s 4680 Battery? EV range anxiety hangs in the balance
By Lawrence Ulrich
2021 Sep 01
https://spectrum.ieee.org/tesla-4680-battery

.....
"The Lucid Air is the first car to show range that's not just competitive (with Tesla), but better, an astonishing achievement," said Venkat Viswanathan, battery researcher and associate professor of mechanical engineering at Carnegie Mellon University. "It shows it's no longer a one-horse race."

To gallop back in front, a 50-percent range leap for a vehicle like the Model S would let it top 600 miles, a diesel-like stamina that seemed unimaginable a few years ago. So much for "range anxiety." Sandy Munro, the Detroit-area engineer who has gained YouTube fame for his reverse-engineered teardowns and analyses of EVs, is among the experts convinced that Tesla will pull it off.

"For the cell itself, no question, it will kick the daylights out of everybody," Munro says.

.....
Viswanathan agrees that Battery Day blended tangible gains with Musk's familiar visionary spitballing, making it all hard to parse.

"It's difficult to separate the signal from the noise in these Tesla presentations," Viswanathan says. "But there's always signal; the question is how much."

"Still, I have no doubt they will be able to produce the cell at volume," he continued. "More than any automaker, they have the talent to do it. The question really is how quickly, at what price point, safety levels and manufacturing defects."
 
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Sigh. If the Cybertruck gets delayed beyond next year, I'm going to throw my hat in with Rivian.
 


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I wonder... Elon said in some random interview a couple months back that they are no longer battery constrained.
 
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rr6013

rr6013

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I wonder... Elon said in some random interview a couple months back that they are no longer battery constrained.
I recollect that EM put that comment in time frame. So while true Tesla are not battery constrained for SOP Cybertruck, the ramp might get tight in out years.
The UCSD battery teardown doesn’t pass my sniff test. The academics, chemistry and reverse engineered deconstruction are top-rated. Its the single cell example that just happened into the hands of Gordon from a “nobody”.
I’m EM and I want to misdirect the competition, this is exactly how to do it. Construct a prototype that confounds accepted wisdom overcoming all expectation by conquering the anode. Assemble a prototype, wet dress the cathode ’cuz you don’t have a dry process and send it out into the world. Bingo headline, PR and SHTF at competing OEM’s.
Elon said in some random interview a couple months back that they are no longer battery constrained. Believe him. SEC will fry his CEOhood if its not true.
 

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I wonder... Elon said in some random interview a couple months back that they are no longer battery constrained.
I think his actual words were, 'not currently battery constrained'.

Their access to equipment and chips was limiting them. And they would return to being battery limited as the supply chain recovered by the end of the year and their new models started devouring their cell numbers.

-Crissa
 

charliemagpie

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I think his actual words were, 'not currently battery constrained'.

Their access to equipment and chips was limiting them. And they would return to being battery limited as the supply chain recovered by the end of the year and their new models started devouring their cell numbers.

-Crissa
The other day it blew me away when I started calculating what 3TW of capacity actually meant to the bottom line. Plan 3 is going to blow people away.

Anyway. back to the point. Yes, as Elon alluded, we are ok now.. but probably gets tight when Austin Y, CT , Semi and Germany start to get into full swing.

But, if we produce anywhere near this mind blowing 3TW figure by 2030, surplus will come sooner rather than later.
 

anionic1

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Old News
Today
Berlin Tesla Production
Model Y built and selling EvCars with BYD flat LFP battery packs

Shanghai Tesla Production
Model Y built and selling EvCars with CATL MP3 flat LFP battery packs

Right Now Today
Four Tesla factories are selling EvCars with 4 different battery packs

Tesla is no longer limited to the 4680 or LFP battery format.

I think it is called not putting all your eggs in one basket type of strategy
Right but the CT real is designed for the structural pack with 4680 cells. I have never heard of a CT design with a traditional frame so we have a problem with our egg if the 4680 can’t ramp up.
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