New reservation tracking?

[MrPotato]

Hello everyone, I've been reading this forum for a really long time but never posted. I apologize in advance for the long post but I've been thinking... (dangerous stuff, I know)!

Like most of you, I was pretty upset about the price increases regarding the Cybertruck. I do hope that Tesla decreases the pricing sometime soon before my reservation comes up but that got me thinking about what we've seen since the Nov 30th.

1. There was no mention of the price during the presentation and I honestly don't blame Elon. I doubt it would have been received very well for an event they were live-streaming. It was probably best to just roll it out "quietly" on the order page to minimize embarrassment for the event itself.
2. The reservations resumed but with a prince increase of $250.
3. An email was sent to a number of reservation holders giving them a $1,000 discount on a S, 3, X, or Y.

Most successful organizations prefer data driven decisions. Meaning they want some kind of hard data or metric that guides them to a decision rather than making decisions off of a "feeling".

For example, Tesla likely decided the Cybertruck would be a huge success based solely off the original reveal response and sheer number of reservations. I'm quite sure that Tesla has already de-duplicated the original reservation list to get a more accurate count of unique reservations and then applied some kind of math to give them conversion rates. Likely in part based on previous reservation conversions. This could have led Tesla to believe that they could shoulder a higher price by incorporating a ton of new features, many of which may not have been announced/revealed at any point in time until after the production units were ready.

Tesla knew it missed the target on price before the November 30 event. This was evident in Elon's talks with shareholders prior to the event as well as his silence about pricing since the event/reveal.

Many have speculated that Tesla may reduce the price in the future, and that's certainly possible, must like I said earlier, most successful organizations are looking for data to tell them when and how to do these kinds of things. So let's take a look at how I see things:

1. Tesla is likely aware that many original reservations holders will not immediately cancel but likely wait it out and see if pricing changes once they get called up. This doesn't provide much data to Tesla because they need data that represents change in demand from the initial reveal to now. Sure, some people may cancel but most will probably just wait it out.
2. The only way to get a change in demand from the initial reservation list is three fold:
   1. A user cancels their order within a predetermined time period after the announcement. This will likely be a relatively short timeframe because anything after that could be considered a different justification.
   2. A user fails to go through with their order once they're notified of availability. This isn't very useful initially because it takes a lot of time to go through a series of cancellation to start predicting if their initial formula's for conversion rates are wrong.
   3. Dangling a carrot and watching a user take it. This would likely refer to the email Tesla sent giving incentives on other models. The goal is in part meant to measure how many will click the links and show "interest" in this incentive for another Tesla vehicle. It's not very wise, or even possible for many, to purchase two vehicles around the same time. There's a lot of financial risk in the second transaction being successful. So Tesla knows if you show interest and/or take the incentive, then you're likely not going to take the Cybertruck offer. Lastly, it's just a sales tactic to keep revenue with Tesla rather than an outsider given they know they've priced out a lot of people.
3. The last way to gauge change in demand is to create a new reservation process. One that could then be compared with the initial reservation list. For example, you might compare the total number of reservations, or the number of reservations per day and compare that with the initial reservation process. If the new reservation process is significantly less, then Tesla will know something's seriously wrong. Either with delivery time frames, the specs, pricing, etc.

My guess is that they've combined these aspects to try and gauge interest after the production reveal. Sure, some of this will be based on things other than pricing, but really all they need is some kind of metric to drive them to making a change. Given that the specs would likely be very difficult to change anytime soon, the quickest solution could be the price.

Remember, shareholders want to recuperate money and they can't do that if Cybertruck isn't selling. Even if it were to sell for a profit from the very beginning, have little volume being produced won't significantly impact Tesla's sales. This is intended to be a mass volume product and as such, investors want to see larger dividends. Much of that will need to come from the Cybertruck by producing enough volume to justify revenue and profits. The rest may come from future product releases/modifications to incorporate much of the newly released technologies that came about because of Cybertruck such as 48v, steer by wire, 800v charging, power share, etc. All of these will eventually be incorporated into the entire product line but again, that's significant future work, nothing short term.

So, in the end, my question really just boils down to: Are we doing enough to track NEW reservation holders? Should the reservation tracker be updated to indicate new reservations more clearly? I was viewing it earlier today and honestly there are only a handful of reservations in the tracker from Nov 30th and on. How can we better encourage users to continue submitting their reservations into the trackers so we can analyze this data ourselves?

Sponsored

 

[davelloydbrown]

Most of the information that we have received thus far suggests that the ramp will take at least one year and CT won't contribute to profits for at least 12-18 months. Even at that, because of its price, its contribution to the bottom line will be similar to the x or s, which is negligible. It is going to be a drag on earnings for some time. It makes one wonder why they are producing it all. Possible answers include, because Elon promised it, to develop new technologies to be used on other vehicles, to drop the price at some point and sell it en mass.

IMO, there isn't much difference between the cog of the beast and the awd (it seems they have the same battery), so that means that most of the difference in cost between the two is pure profit. Although there are other opinions with regard to the foundation series and the first vins reported until the end of the year. It would make sense to me to prioritize the sale of the beast model first. This would play havoc with the queue and the spreadsheet probably rendering them useless.

Here are a couple of videos I found interesting, one on supply management dynamics and the other on analysts. opinions on the CT price etc.

 

[JoeRod97]

Hello everyone, I've been reading this forum for a really long time but never posted. I apologize in advance for the long post but I've been thinking... (dangerous stuff, I know)!

Like most of you, I was pretty upset about the price increases regarding the Cybertruck. I do hope that Tesla decreases the pricing sometime soon before my reservation comes up but that got me thinking about what we've seen since the Nov 30th.

1. There was no mention of the price during the presentation and I honestly don't blame Elon. I doubt it would have been received very well for an event they were live-streaming. It was probably best to just roll it out "quietly" on the order page to minimize embarrassment for the event itself.
2. The reservations resumed but with a prince increase of $250.
3. An email was sent to a number of reservation holders giving them a $1,000 discount on a S, 3, X, or Y.

Most successful organizations prefer data driven decisions. Meaning they want some kind of hard data or metric that guides them to a decision rather than making decisions off of a "feeling".

For example, Tesla likely decided the Cybertruck would be a huge success based solely off the original reveal response and sheer number of reservations. I'm quite sure that Tesla has already de-duplicated the original reservation list to get a more accurate count of unique reservations and then applied some kind of math to give them conversion rates. Likely in part based on previous reservation conversions. This could have led Tesla to believe that they could shoulder a higher price by incorporating a ton of new features, many of which may not have been announced/revealed at any point in time until after the production units were ready.

Tesla knew it missed the target on price before the November 30 event. This was evident in Elon's talks with shareholders prior to the event as well as his silence about pricing since the event/reveal.

Many have speculated that Tesla may reduce the price in the future, and that's certainly possible, must like I said earlier, most successful organizations are looking for data to tell them when and how to do these kinds of things. So let's take a look at how I see things:

1. Tesla is likely aware that many original reservations holders will not immediately cancel but likely wait it out and see if pricing changes once they get called up. This doesn't provide much data to Tesla because they need data that represents change in demand from the initial reveal to now. Sure, some people may cancel but most will probably just wait it out.
2. The only way to get a change in demand from the initial reservation list is three fold:
   1. A user cancels their order within a predetermined time period after the announcement. This will likely be a relatively short timeframe because anything after that could be considered a different justification.
   2. A user fails to go through with their order once they're notified of availability. This isn't very useful initially because it takes a lot of time to go through a series of cancellation to start predicting if their initial formula's for conversion rates are wrong.
   3. Dangling a carrot and watching a user take it. This would likely refer to the email Tesla sent giving incentives on other models. The goal is in part meant to measure how many will click the links and show "interest" in this incentive for another Tesla vehicle. It's not very wise, or even possible for many, to purchase two vehicles around the same time. There's a lot of financial risk in the second transaction being successful. So Tesla knows if you show interest and/or take the incentive, then you're likely not going to take the Cybertruck offer. Lastly, it's just a sales tactic to keep revenue with Tesla rather than an outsider given they know they've priced out a lot of people.
3. The last way to gauge change in demand is to create a new reservation process. One that could then be compared with the initial reservation list. For example, you might compare the total number of reservations, or the number of reservations per day and compare that with the initial reservation process. If the new reservation process is significantly less, then Tesla will know something's seriously wrong. Either with delivery time frames, the specs, pricing, etc.

My guess is that they've combined these aspects to try and gauge interest after the production reveal. Sure, some of this will be based on things other than pricing, but really all they need is some kind of metric to drive them to making a change. Given that the specs would likely be very difficult to change anytime soon, the quickest solution could be the price.

Remember, shareholders want to recuperate money and they can't do that if Cybertruck isn't selling. Even if it were to sell for a profit from the very beginning, have little volume being produced won't significantly impact Tesla's sales. This is intended to be a mass volume product and as such, investors want to see larger dividends. Much of that will need to come from the Cybertruck by producing enough volume to justify revenue and profits. The rest may come from future product releases/modifications to incorporate much of the newly released technologies that came about because of Cybertruck such as 48v, steer by wire, 800v charging, power share, etc. All of these will eventually be incorporated into the entire product line but again, that's significant future work, nothing short term.

So, in the end, my question really just boils down to: Are we doing enough to track NEW reservation holders? Should the reservation tracker be updated to indicate new reservations more clearly? I was viewing it earlier today and honestly there are only a handful of reservations in the tracker from Nov 30th and on. How can we better encourage users to continue submitting their reservations into the trackers so we can analyze this data ourselves?

There IS a demand for CT after the reveal.i reserved a CT one hour after the reveal.my brother reserved one at the same time only his was submitted 3 minutes after mine.we are 2977 #s apart! Almost 1000 reservations a minute!!

Sponsored