Poll: How many preorders will turn into orders?

How many preorders will turn into orders?


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  • Poll closed .

ZARDOZ

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I'm curious what you think. I'm guessing between 50 and 75% of preorders will turn into orders; how about you?
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prl99

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I might not follow through on my purchase mainly because it's taking longer than I had hoped and my needs have changed as I approach 70 (when I see the CT being available). Do I really need a truck anymore? If Tesla came out with a smaller CT, I might try holding out for an extra year or two. So many things will change in the next 2-3 years that I could easily see less than 50% purchase. I would have suggested breaking down your poll into 10% increments and I would have picked one at 50%. This still means more than 500K CTs being sold and once we see what it's like, that number could continue to grow (new sales, not reserved sales).
 

Sirfun

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My guess will be 50-75% because there are so many people who have multiple orders that will cancel, and as it takes longer, sadly lives change and lives are lost.
There was an older guy from North Carolina that used to be one of the biggest posters on this forum, and he hasn't posted in over a year.

Edit: After writing this, I did a search and found out this gentleman who's name on this forum, "Mule Ferguson" passed away March 3, 2020 R.I.P. he was missed by me, and I'm sure many others who used to read this forum in the early days.
 
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Ogre

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Attrition isn’t going to affect me much one way or the other. The people in front of me are almost all day 1 orders.

I suspect a lot of people who are frustrated now will be a bit re-engaged when trucks start appearing.
 

Crissa

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This poll isn't really granular enough.

75% was how many Model 3 reservations converted to orders - but it doesn't count people who converted their order existing stock.

-Crissa
 

JJ_Tex

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My guess is that it will be 25-50% based on the length of time people have been waiting and that the $100 refundable deposit is pretty non-committal. I also think that 1 future customer could have a reservation for all 3 configurations and skew the numbers.

Regardless of the actual number, I would anticipate headlines bashing Tesla on the high number of pre-order cancellations. Hopefully, Tesla will have a good spin to put on the actual number to weed out those with multiple orders or who went with another Tesla product, but there will still be bashing.
 

Ogre

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My guess is that it will be 25-50% based on the length of time people have been waiting and that the $100 refundable deposit is pretty non-committal. I also think that 1 future customer could have a reservation for all 3 configurations and skew the numbers.

Regardless of the actual number, I would anticipate headlines bashing Tesla on the high number of pre-order cancellations. Hopefully, Tesla will have a good spin to put on the actual number to weed out those with multiple orders or who went with another Tesla product, but there will still be bashing.
Tesla is going to take 2-5 years burning through the Backlog even with a fairly high cancellation rate.

By that time Tesla will have shipped 250k+ trucks and people will either love it and demand will increase or it will fail. Either way, what the headlines say about preorder cancellations is irrelevant.
 

Cyberman

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My guess will be 50-75% because there are so many people who have multiple orders that will cancel, and as it takes longer, sadly lives change and lives are lost.
There was an older guy from North Carolina that used to be one of the biggest posters on this forum, and he hasn't posted in over a year.

Edit: After writing this, I did a search and found out this gentleman who's name on this forum, "Mule Ferguson" passed away March 3, 2020 R.I.P. he was missed by me, and I'm sure many others who used to read this forum in the early days.
SO sad. Tragically, MuleFerguson won't get to fulfill his earthly dream of Cybertruck. See what the delays are doing, Elon? Dead people can't drive their Cybertrucks! Not cool.
 

Cyberman

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I really think the rate will be closer to 3 to 5%. Probably even less. Anyone who drops their res is leaving real money on the table.
 

Red61224

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I may flip my first reservation and take the 2nd one. The demand will be outstanding when they start rolling on the streets and the zombies' "clueless consumers" wake up to what's going on.
 
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Ogre

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I may flip my first reservation and take the 2nd one. The demand will be outstanding when they start rolling on the streets and the zombies wake up to what's going on.
If there are zombies in the street, that’s the worst possible time to sell the truck!
 

anionic1

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So most people think that out of 10 people in a room that preordered, 5 or more will actually buy the truck. I doubt that.
 
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