Tesla is going to take 2-5 years burning through the Backlog even with a fairly high cancellation rate.My guess is that it will be 25-50% based on the length of time people have been waiting and that the $100 refundable deposit is pretty non-committal. I also think that 1 future customer could have a reservation for all 3 configurations and skew the numbers.
Regardless of the actual number, I would anticipate headlines bashing Tesla on the high number of pre-order cancellations. Hopefully, Tesla will have a good spin to put on the actual number to weed out those with multiple orders or who went with another Tesla product, but there will still be bashing.
SO sad. Tragically, MuleFerguson won't get to fulfill his earthly dream of Cybertruck. See what the delays are doing, Elon? Dead people can't drive their Cybertrucks! Not cool.My guess will be 50-75% because there are so many people who have multiple orders that will cancel, and as it takes longer, sadly lives change and lives are lost.
There was an older guy from North Carolina that used to be one of the biggest posters on this forum, and he hasn't posted in over a year.
Edit: After writing this, I did a search and found out this gentleman who's name on this forum, "Mule Ferguson" passed away March 3, 2020 R.I.P. he was missed by me, and I'm sure many others who used to read this forum in the early days.