Honoring Original Estimated Pricing

[Ogre]

T “There is a horrible thing coming… absolutely terrible and I have a fix for it!”

O: Really, what it?

T: Scalpers, truly horrible, lots of them!

O: How many?

T: I can’t tell you that, top secret.

O: Then how do we know it’s really a problem?

T: Look, if you don’t understand, you shouldn’t criticize.

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[Deleted member 3316]

The reason it's flawed is because Tesla will not raise prices simply because a few reservation holders decide to profit instead of owning the latest and greatest, particularly when they realize if they sell it as soon as they take delivery, they will end up blacklisted from being to buy another anytime soon.

Why would they care about being black listed? They only have a few reservations to sell?

 

[Deleted member 3316]

Furthermore, I doubt Tesla will deliver (for example) 10 Cybertrucks to the person who has low reservation numbers before clearing out the reservation que.

Yes agreed, but what about those that have one or two…. The difficulty I’m having in articulating the issue is we are discussing counterfactuals, and a sliding scale of risk and intervention,
Super low price, high risk of parasitic profiteering
High price, lowered risk.

The fundamental difference between the current solution of slightly volatile price and what is essentially a drawn out Dutch auction, is the captive and clearly articulated demand.

Genuine customers reserved the truck on the proviso it will be $40-70k but the value of that truck is significantly more. We don’t know what the market value is because it’s not yet being sold…(so I can’t give Ogre his numbers)

We don’t know how many people will scalp their reservations because it’s unclear how valuable that will be. (Again Ogre)

This issue I’m trying to articulate is around the unprecedented demand and value of this product that is something unseen before and might benefit from a different market strategy.

 

[Deleted member 3316]

T “There is a horrible thing coming… absolutely terrible and I have a fix for it!”

O: Really, what it?

T: Scalpers, truly horrible, lots of them!

O: How many?

T: I can’t tell you that, top secret.

O: Then how do we know it’s really a problem?

T: Look, if you don’t understand, you shouldn’t criticize.

Ok Ogre why don’t you tell us all what price Cybertruck will sell at and what the market value is… that partly defines the standard risk of scalpers, CyberTruck is different from what we’ve seen before because of the clear and demonstrated demand.

Its clear you’ve gone from curious, to confused, to frustrated, and now shitposting, without actually trying to honestly understand the logical issue.

If you’re not interested in discussing it…. Stop trying.

 

[Ogre]

Ok Ogre why don’t you tell us all what price Cybertruck will sell at and what the market value is… that partly defines the standard risk of scalpers, CyberTruck is different from what we’ve seen before because of the clear and demonstrated demand.

Its clear you’ve gone from curious, to confused, to frustrated, and now shitposting, without actually trying to honestly understand the logical issue.

If you’re not interested in discussing it…. Stop trying.

LOL.

Tesla told us what the price is. I’ve yet to hear any theories aside from inflation which make more sense than what they came out and told us. They know how to use their numbers. All of this overthink “Tesla is greedy Greed Greed Greedy!!” Is not economics, it’s just reactionary.

I’ve never been “Confused”, I’ve been trying to get you to actually say what you are talking about, but you’ve refused over and over and over. Your idea is empty without some kind of numbers which you are too lazy to provide.

Tesla’s way of dealing with “unprecedented demand” is simple and the same as it’s been all along.

Unprecedented supply. They just dropped a second 9k Ton press in Texas so they can ramp up quicker.

 

[Alan]

The number of people who flip their truck will be a drop in the bucket. Your just looking for something to worry about.

 

[Crissa]

Some expenses, like buildings, I believe, are costed based on useful number of years.

This is the only thing that matters in your reply.

No, they don't get to choose the actual lifetime of the buildings and capital - it's dependent upon government tables. Which... Means that it's not actually based upon the actual lifetime of the equipment.

So you end up with alot of front-loaded costs.

On top of that, training, building processes, and early production all will have much higher labor costs. Higher material waste. Higher, well, everything.

Scalping has zero impact on my deliver date and zero impact on what I pay. You are tilting at some bizarro windmill with no basis.

This is actually wrong: If Tesla does nothing against scalpers, they will buy as many vehicles as possible and pocket the difference. Scalpers will also do their darnedest to slow the delivery process to extract the most profit.

And every truck they scalp is a truck not going to someone else on the reservation list.

So scalpers do push back your delivery date.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

This is actually wrong: If Tesla does nothing against scalpers, they will buy as many vehicles as possible and pocket the difference. Scalpers will also do their darnedest to slow the delivery process to extract the most profit.

And every truck they scalp is a truck not going to someone else on the reservation list.

So scalpers do push back your delivery date.

Scalpers can only buy as many vehicles as they have reserved. This is a fixed number. Regardless of whether Tesla auctions some off the top or not, they hold those reservations and will be able to flip them reguardless.

What scalpers can do to delay/ slow delivery is—not-a-fucking-thing.

 

[Deleted member 3316]

LOL.

Tesla told us what the price is. I’ve yet to hear any theories aside from inflation which make more sense than what they came out and told us. They know how to use their numbers. All of this overthink “Tesla is greedy Greed Greed Greedy!!” Is not economics, it’s just reactionary.

I’ve never been “Confused”, I’ve been trying to get you to actually say what you are talking about, but you’ve refused over and over and over. Your idea is empty without some kind of numbers which you are too lazy to provide.

Tesla’s way of dealing with “unprecedented demand” is simple and the same as it’s been all along.

Unprecedented supply. They just dropped a second 9k Ton press in Texas so they can ramp up quicker.

You’re almost there Ogre…

Now contemplate how many people are going to want this truck when it starts to show up on the roads… and then imagine what will happen to the value of the first two years of production when Tesla cannot meet that demand within the first 4years…

If Tesla can mitigate most occurrences of scalping by making it difficult or unprofitable for people to sell their vehicles;

What price are the first Cybertrucks going to sell for on the open market? $100k….$200k… who knows?
That’s the point….
We don’t know…
but what we do know is that currently if you don’t have a reservation there’s no amount of money you can pay to get one from Tesla.

EVERYONE that wants a Cybertruck that doesn’t have a reservation has to buy it from a scalper for the next 3-6 years…. UNLESS there is an equitable mechanism for Tesla to sell directly to those people without a reservation.

 

[Deleted member 3316]

Scalpers can only buy as many vehicles as they have reserved. This is a fixed number. Regardless of whether Tesla auctions some off the top or not, they hold those reservations and will be able to flip them reguardless.

What scalpers can do to delay/ slow delivery is—not-a-fucking-thing.

Wow… you really don’t get it do you…

 

[Deleted member 3316]

The number of people who flip their truck will be a drop in the bucket. Your just looking for something to worry about.

How many people will want a Cybertruck next year?

some kind of numbers

The maximum amount of vehicles produced will probably be around 250k. I’d hazard a guess that there are more than 250k people in the USA without reservations that are ready willing and capable able to buy one. That recent survey said 34% of the US pickup truck market want an electric pickup truck. That’s just over 670k vehicles. That number is about to skyrocket when Cybertruck actually hits the market.

Can you see the issue?

Only 250k people can purchase a Cybertruck next year but around 200k probably don’t have a reservation for a Cybertruck. They would, in all likelihood, be willing and able to pay well over the reveal prices but Tesla don’t have an equitable way to sell to them…

Do you think demand for Electric trucks is going to stall at 34% until Tesla can make 750k per year? Who is going to satiate the highly profitable demand if not Tesla…definitely not legacy auto.

The question for everyone is do you want to pay market value or do you want to only pay 15-25% margin on your Cybertruck?

 

[charliemagpie]

The maximum amount of vehicles produced will be as much as the market can take. imo

 

[HaulingAss]

EVERYONE that wants a Cybertruck that doesn’t have a reservation has to buy it from a scalper for the next 3-6 years…. UNLESS there is an equitable mechanism for Tesla to sell directly to those people without a reservation.

This is wrong.

Every new Tesla model has unprecedented demand in the early phases of production. Tesla ramps production to meet that demand. There is zero chance it will take Tesla 6 years to fill that demand because Cybertruck is specifically designed to to require less factory space to ramp to build in high numbers. That's how Tesla is able to offer such an advanced truck for the same prices legacy auto charges for overweight and out-dated flexi-flyers that guzzle gasoline.

I'm about 40K in the reservation line and expect I will take delivery of a Cybertruck with a VIN # showing it's about the 20-30 thousandth one produced. That's because some people who planned on scalping have multiple reservation numbers before me, but Tesla will only deliver one to each potential scalper before they sell me mine.

Yes, scalping happens, no it won't be a high-volume thing and no, it will not cause Tesla to raise prices, that's what the reservation system and Tesla's policy of not selling multiple vehicles to the same party is designed to do, prevent people from turning the re-selling of Cybertruck into a regular business. The price of Cybertruck will be the same, regardless of lots of scalpers or few scalpers.

There will actually be a very limited number of Cybertrucks available from scalpers which is why they will go for such high prices relative to that paid by reservation holders. Anyone who wants a Cybertruck without paying the higher prices to scalpers should make a reservation and get in line. I am even less concerned about early reservationists scalping their Cybertruck reservation than Tesla is. Tesla has the ultimate control over who they sell Cybertrucks to and that is by design and is not going to change.

In the Spring of 2018, Model 3 had about three years of reservation backlog but Tesla ramped production to high volume and burned through the entire original reservation list by spring of 2019. It only took one year. After that point, wait times were based on new reservations building up. Cybertruck might take two years to burn through the standing reservations at the start of prodction, not six. If you want a Cybertruck, and don't want to pay scalper prices, get in line now.

 

[HAL GALLUS]

Dual Motor? $63,990 plus destination fee.

I don't think so, I hope not.

 

[HAL GALLUS]

This is wrong.

Every new Tesla model has unprecedented demand in the early phases of production. Tesla ramps production to meet that demand. There is zero chance it will take Tesla 6 years to fill that demand because Cybertruck is specifically designed to to require less factory space to ramp to build in high numbers. That's how Tesla is able to offer such an advanced truck for the same prices legacy auto charges for overweight and out-dated flexi-flyers that guzzle gasoline.

I'm about 40K in the reservation line and expect I will take delivery of a Cybertruck with a VIN # showing it's about the 20-30 thousandth one produced. That's because some people who planned on scalping have multiple reservation numbers before me, but Tesla will only deliver one to each potential scalper before they sell me mine.

Yes, scalping happens, no it won't be a high-volume thing and no, it will not cause Tesla to raise prices, that's what the reservation system and Tesla's policy of not selling multiple vehicles to the same party is designed to do, prevent people from turning the re-selling of Cybertruck into a regular business. The price of Cybertruck will be the same, regardless of lots of scalpers or few scalpers.

There will actually be a very limited number of Cybertrucks available from scalpers which is why they will go for such high prices relative to that paid by reservation holders. Anyone who wants a Cybertruck without paying the higher prices to scalpers should make a reservation and get in line. I am even less concerned about early reservationists scalping their Cybertruck reservation than Tesla is. Tesla has the ultimate control over who they sell Cybertrucks to and that is by design and is not going to change.

In the Spring of 2018, Model 3 had about three years of reservation backlog but Tesla ramped production to high volume and burned through the entire original reservation list by spring of 2019. It only took one year. After that point, wait times were based on new reservations building up. Cybertruck might take two years to burn through the standing reservations at the start of prodction, not six. If you want a Cybertruck, and don't want to pay scalper prices, get in line now.

That makes sense to me.

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