Honoring Original Estimated Pricing

[cvalue13]

I have been repetitively ignoring or dismissing out of hand several fundamental flaws in changing the market strategy.

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[scoobysteve0]

This has been great. I think either 50's to 60s for Dual motor. Real Tesla is trying to change the market to EV.

 

[Deleted member 3316]

This thread guessing about pricing but nobody seems to be discussing the logic behind a companies pricing decision.

There is a limit to the top end market segment. There will be record-breaking deals newspapers like writing about. It will be exhausted quick enough

We won’t know what the price is until launch obviously, my concern is it’s going to be high to mitigate the potential profit loss from the “record breaking deals” as well as anyone that just wants one for a price similar to high end trucks. The TCO for businesses will calculate that higher also.

I wouldn't sell to pocket 10 grand .... Maybe some might...but the numbers imo are relatively small.

There’s a whole lot of assumptions in there. Where do you get $10k from?

What happens in the second hand market has no effect on Tesla production plans.

Why don’t they sell at 15% margin then?

The best way to avoid a fiasco is for Tesla to say if required, they can easily scale to 500,000+ as they ramp. That will slow scalping.

They implied 2million at investor day…. How does that effect scalping in the first few years of ramp?

It’s not the scalping that will be an issue it’s the price the will be set to minimise the occurrence.

I’ve been trying (and failing) to get people to discuss this as a balance between minimum value and maximum cost. With infinite supply Tesla could sell at a modest margin and decimate the market. (They are setting up to decimate the market with high margins)

There is an issue with the coupling of the reservation system and the incongruence of demand and supply.

What strategy will Tesla use for pricing? I’m hoping it’s not the Dutch auction approach they currently use.

 

[Deleted member 3316]

This has been great. I think either 50's to 60s for Dual motor. Real Tesla is trying to change the market to EV.

How do you come to that figure? I think there’s a significant proportion of the market that would pay more.

 

[cvalue13]

In this context, if someone asks for quantifiable numbers when discussing a strategy, it could be an attempt to create a strawman by implying that their opponent's argument is not valid or complete without specific numerical data.

not a strawman

here I was thinking, by the way you ‘talk,’ you were a second year uni student philosophy major who (as is custom) has confused certain unnecessarily dense vocabulary with persuasiveness

and to incorrectly “imply [your] argument is not valid or complete without specific numerical data” would require your argument to not be dependent on specific numerical data. But it is. The persuasiveness of your argument is dependent on, among other things, the following quantifiable data:

(1) a demonstration of [X]: the quantifiable effects on Tesla margins of all (true) scalping, absent any solution


(2) next you have to demonstrate [Y]: the relevant period of time over which to calculate [$X]


(3) next you have to demonstrate [Z]: the quantifiable mitigating effects of Tesla’s existing anti-scalping measures


And then perform the operation:

[[X%] of gross margin lost over [Y] period]

minus

[[Z%] of gross revenue recouped by mitigation over [Y] period]

equals:

the resulting net effect on Tesla’s margins due to true scalpers after accounting for Tesla’s existing mitigation

but you can’t provide [X], you can’t provide [Z], you seem to assume without support that [Y] should be a low number (eg the next 3 years rather than the life of the model), which is contentious on its face, and so you certainly can’t perform the operation to arrive at data regarding the net effect on Tesla’s margins

Arriving at that data would then establish only that a material problem exists in the first place.

That’s before we ever get down to the drugery of assessing whether your proposed solution itself then has any quantifiable material effects on Tesla’s net margins over [Y], after accounting for the administrative costs of your proposed solution.

What @Ogre is saying, in part, is that all you’re doing across multiple threads is repeating how [X] is “huge” over a “short” [Y] and [Z] isn’t “enough” for the operation to not result in something “we should all care about”


Which is exactly, and correctly, asserting (not implying) that argument is not “valid or complete without specific numerical data.”

Not that you need anything down to the penny, but instead that you’ve never once even attempted to even back-of-napkin quantify anything at all

 

[charliemagpie]

The 10k was a hypothetical profit I would make by scalping. Or even 20k. I don't sell. Or even 30. 1 million... Yes.


Tesla is not mad. Tesla doesn't leave orders open in the US if the wait time is 6 years already. !!!!

The model Y/3 were incrementally increased. Tesla has not sold a Cybertruck yet, and it is not going to create price points unrelated in spirit to 2019.

There is only one genuine solution:

Tesla is planning high volume production and will quickly reign wait times. Watch this space.

To add :

2023 volume will trickle to insiders and most fanatical first. Scalping odds low.

2024 production will go to CT fanatics. Some scalping , but % low.

2025 production will be high volume limiting the high profit scalping to desperate wealthy people... These will diminish to near zero by end 2025.
The balance of desperate customers will be willing to wait 6/12 months rather than get screwed.

Something like that. imo

 

[Deleted member 3316]

There is only one genuine solution:

There’s are many solutions, it just depends on what problem you’re looking to solve.

To add :

2023 volume will trickle to insiders and most fanatical first. Scalping odds low.

2024 production will go to CT fanatics. Some scalping , but % low.

2025 production will be high volume limiting the high profit scalping to desperate wealthy people... These will diminish to near zero by end 2025.
The balance of desperate customers will be willing to wait 6/12 months rather than get screwed.

Something like that. imo

That is missing about 750k - 1million orders… plus any new interest after 2026.

 

[Ogre]

This thread guessing about pricing but nobody seems to be discussing the logic behind a companies pricing decision.

I did. Multiple times. Even recently when you asked me about it directly.

Unlike some folks in this thread who refuse to ask any direct questions.

 

[Ogre]

The 10k was a hypothetical profit I would make by scalping. Or even 20k. I don't sell. Or even 30. 1 million... Yes.

Here’s the thing which makes most of this whole scalping debate silly. I’ve goofed on this before too.

Most scalpers aren’t going to buy trucks. There may be some buyers who do flip their used trucks, but the scalpers are going to be buying and selling reservations. Since the reservations aren’t transferrable, it’ll most likely entire Tesla accounts with Cybertruck reservations in them.

https://www.vice.com/en/article/wxj...-selling-entire-ticketmaster-accounts-instead

We’ve already seen people talking about wanting to buy reservations here. Just like when you go to concerts and there is always a guy buying tickets and a scalper 20 feet behind him. I’ll bet we get a steady flow of them on here before too long. We saw this last year during peak Model Y crunch.

Trucks are expensive, transaction costs are large. Tesla accounts with a Cybertruck reservation are fairly easy to transfer. In many cases it’s just a matter of selling the password. Lots of accounts out there with just a Cybertruck reservation and nothing else. Weirdly, I have one. Likely back far enough it won’t fetch a large premium though. It might be worth around $5,000 though since it has a $10k FSD price lock.

 

[Deleted member 3316]

I did. Multiple times. Even recently when you asked me about it directly.

Unlike some folks in this thread who refuse to ask any direct questions.

Are you insinuating I didn’t ask you multiple direct questions?

You certainly haven’t answered any of my direct questions… You go off on weird strawman arguments but you haven’t honestly answered any of my direct questions. Especially when you’ve gotten stuck on scalping and I tried to point you in a more productive direction.

 

[Crissa]

What don’t you agree with exactly?
Why do you think I’m suggesting Tesla should screw us over? There is some very deep misunderstanding here.

...Because your plans seem to include Tesla raising the price on early reservation holders? Or making us wait while they fulfill orders from people who'll pay whatever?

-Crissa

 

[Crissa]

“Slow the delivery process” HOW? They can slow their own delivery process. Aside from having an existing reservation ahead of me, there is no way they can slow my delivery process. This is all fear and paranoia.

1. There are a finite number of trucks at any one time.
2. There are a finite number of sales people at any one time.
3. There are a finite number of parking spots, vehicle carrier slots, etc, at each distribution point.

Scalpers won't take delivery of their vehicles until they have a buyer - because they are also limited in their physical aspects. They do things like have straw buyers, need extra attention transferring the title and Tesla account registration. They are the worst customers, in effect. Basically, they waste time.

Time and trucks that could be yours. But instead, they're the no-shows that waste the sales staff's time and delay your pickup date. It's a non-zero number.

-Crissa

 

[Ogre]

1. There are a finite number of trucks at any one time.
2. There are a finite number of sales people at any one time.
3. There are a finite number of parking spots, vehicle carrier slots, etc, at each distribution point.

Scalpers won't take delivery of their vehicles until they have a buyer - because they are also limited in their physical aspects. They do things like have straw buyers, need extra attention transferring the title and Tesla account registration. They are the worst customers, in effect. Basically, they waste time.

Time and trucks that could be yours. But instead, they're the no-shows that waste the sales staff's time and delay your pickup date. It's a non-zero number.

-Crissa

Like I said above, transaction costs are high with moving vehicles. Scalpers will just sell the reservations. They can do it online for near zero cost. Some early trucks will be due to scalped reservations. A few will get flipped. Not a ton.

This whole line of thought about scalpers “Slowing sales” is nonsense though. Tesla is going to be producing trucks at a given rate. They are going to be delivering them at that rate. Straw buyers can’t slow this down. Scalpers don’t have the time or resources to do a Truck Denial Of Service Attack that slows truck deliveries. Most of this happens online and without human intervention. Having someone clogging up phone lines won’t change my delivery date by a day.

Maybe when I show up to get my truck I have to wait 10 more minutes due to a no-show in front of me. Who cares.

Also, as I said above, Tesla best “defense” against this is simply getting as many trucks out the door as quickly as possible.

 

[Ogre]

Ford can only produce 30,000 trucks a year.

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