Pricing

[TheLastStarfighter]

So the expected inflation should already be in the price, yes.

It's past inflation to us now, but would have been expected inflation in 2019.

-Crissa

Sure, or they can argue their accountants are stupid. But the truck is also late so the most you can argue is that 2% or so shouldn't be allowed, which isn't enough for any kind of legal case. The fundamental point is that they have a tonn of legal room on increasing the price if they want/need to.

 

[BayouCityBob]

So the expected inflation should already be in the price, yes.

It's past inflation to us now, but would have been expected inflation in 2019.

-Crissa

The 2019 forecast was for a 20% DEFLATION in battery prices by now. The decrease has only be half of that. They would have baked in a cost reduction overall whereas they have gotten an increase.

 

[Gurule92]

Tri motor gonna fit under 80k I'm calling it now. Up 10k from original estimate, allows room for inflation and rws. Tesla gets more money. We barely pay more, (after tax incentives fed and otherwise). Win win.

This mfer went from 100k to just under 80k??Hes watching this forum and straightyoinked my reasoning. I see you donagan ryan

 

[Crissa]

The 2019 forecast was for a 20% DEFLATION in battery prices by now. The decrease has only be half of that. They would have baked in a cost reduction overall whereas they have gotten an increase.

The 4680 and the Cybertruck have also not come out yet.

Coincidence?

-Crissa

 

[jerhenderson]

This mfer went from 100k to just under 80k??Hes watching this forum and straightyoinked my reasoning. I see you donagan ryan

tesla never said 100k. never.

 

[Gurule92]

tesla never said 100k. never.

No one said Tesla said 100k. Never

 

[cyberda]

Four years ago today, Tesla had not scheduled the unveiling of the Cybertruck yet.

So if you've been waiting four years, you wanted something not yet given a schedule or a picture.

-Crissa

... it just seems like 4 years...

 

[CyberBC]

I think the Cybertruck will be a step change in FSD take rate compared to 3 and Y which will lead to increased margin. The next gen platform will be the BIG step change in take rate.

I think the FSD take rate is a big factor. I expect that if they honor the original FSD pricing, and the vast majority of people selected that option (why wouldn't you?), then Tesla has a 7K profit already baked in if lots of people get the FSD. Toyota would love a 7K margin. I would expect Tesla could keep its price closer to cost based on this brilliant move, then start easing up the price later as the FSD take rate declines.

 

[jerhenderson]

No one said Tesla said 100k. Never

you posted this:

This mfer went from 100k to just under 80k??

 

[Gurule92]

you posted this:

This mfer went from 100k to just under 80k??

Right. I was talking about Donegan Ryan's price guess. Its in that part you ignored from my quote.

This mfer went from 100k to just under 80k??Hes watching this forum and straightyoinked my reasoning. I see you donagan ryan

 

[jerhenderson]

Right. I was talking about Donegan Ryan's price guess. Its in that part you ignored from my quote.

I took 'mfer' as being manufacturer.

 

[Gurule92]

I took 'mfer' as being manufacturer.

Lol nope that's not it

 

[charliemagpie]

He is guessing based on the comparison to the hummer or other similar specced trucks.

Which was like basing the price of a T model Ford, to a good horse.

Silly analogy, but I do not think what legacy does is a benchmark.


EM said whilst others would eventually catch up, Tesla would always maintain a manufacturing advantage.

I think the value we felt on presentation day will not be lost when we see the final prices.

 

[Frank Mendez]

Inflation of 2% per year had to be at least in their base line estimate.

Inflation hasn't been 15 points above that.

2019	2.3%	1.75%	Expansion (2.2%)
2020	1.4%	0.25%	Contraction (-3.4%)	COVID-19
2021	7.0%	0.25%	Expansion (5.9%)	COVID-19
2022	6.5%	4.25%	Contraction (-1.6%)
2023	2.7% (est.)	2.8% (est.)	Expansion (2.2%)	March 2022 projection

It's been... -0.6, 5, and 4.5, respectively.


That was the total addressable truck/van market, not how many they planned to sell.

But point made.

-Crissa

If Tesla took the $69,000 (best recollection of price at reservation) for the 3 motor truck and inflated each year the cost would be $83,800 (approximately, my financial math sucks).
I have to think that the cost reductions in casting, motors, batteries and process will more than make up for the inflation additions. I am betting Tesla sells the trucks close to what they stated in 2019. I think we will all be pleasantly surprised.
Of course, my thoughts mean nothing until Tesla releases specs and final pricing.

 

[WoodChuckDad]

Interesting read:
https://theicct.org/cost-electric-semi-feb22/

that article lists the price for a diesel semi at just over 100K. Dream on. perhaps the most barebones diesel cab might be available at that price but nobody is trying to drive that. It simply is not an honest comparison.