Pricing

[jerhenderson]

Correct, this year.

The majority of early reservation holders will not be receiving their CT's until 2024 at the earliest.

meh. I'm patient.

 

[Crissa]

BUT, because of inflation, they sell it without the vault cover, with steel wheels, etc... and make those items available immediately as distribution center add-ons for a price... Just to get the total price under the $80,000 cap.

The truck would be lower range without the vault cover, they'll not sell it without until scraping the bottom of the barrel sales.

When was the last time Tesla sold a car with steel wheels?

-Crissa

 

[HaulingAss]

Look, I dont know about you all but my crystal ball got covid and died and the new one I ordered is still stuck at the dock after a lengthy stay in the suez canal. All to say, who knows, who cares. They will offer it at what they think they can get and we will have to deal with it. I am sure it will be a financial stretch for most. Many have been planning financially while others are just hoping the stars financially align and are planning to bet it all on stainless. Lets just wait and see. One thing is for sure, Tesla doesn't owe us anything.

Exactly! I'm amazed at how people are still speculating what the prices will be by just pulling random numbers out of their butts. Let's look at what we *do* know:

1) We have repeatedly heard Cybertruck will be positioned to sell in large volumes, which means it needs mainstream truck pricing to achieve that.

2) The lower the price Tesla is able to bring it to market at, the more they can sell.

3) The more they can sell, the cheaper they can price it at.

4) Tesla would obviously prefer to hit the right price so they don't have to make too many price adjustments in the first couple of years, up or down, particularly large adjustments.

5) While we have had a lot of inflation of raw materials, raw materials are historically a relatively small percent of the price of a car, and those prices have come down dramatically from their peak.

6) Tesla has had more time to refine production processes and bring the manufacturing side of costs down in the last couple of years. The design has been repeatedly refined to make it easier to build efficiently and Tesla has been steadily learning to manufacture drive motors for less. They are also refining the process of making large castings.

According to an article ( (14) Automakers Raise Prices for EVs as the Cost of Raw Materials Skyrocket | LinkedIn ) written at or near the peak of the boom in raw materials pricing last summer, raw materials in the average EV had risen 144% between March of 2020 to May of 2022 which was a pretty dramtic spike but it only increased the raw materials costs by less than $5,000 for the average EV (from $3381 to $8255) and much of those increases have reversed since then. True, raw materials on the Cybertruck will be almost double that of the average EV (since it will weigh roughly 1.6-1.7 times as much) but raw materials are a minor component of vehicle costs.

Offsetting some of that will be the 5% reduction in dimensions and any manufacturing efficiencies in batteries and vehicles Tesla can take advantage of. Batteries and electronics and EV drive units have had more time to decline in costs with the delay of the release of Cybertruck. The move to 48 volt architechture and less wiring will also reduce pressure to raise prices further.

Countering some of these positive trends for vehicle pricing is the probable addition of features not initially announced, like 4-wheel steering.

Taking all these factors into consideration, I would be surprised if the price increases are anything to write home about. Sure, Cybertruck might be $5-$8K more than originally announced, but wages have increased and the product will be better than that revealed. Relative to the pricing of the competition at the time of the reveal, legacy ICE trucks, I would not be surprised if the Cybertruck is actually cheaper than announced (relative to the price increases we have seen with legacy trucks).

Tesla is all about using smarter design and production techniques, combined with ever improving technologies, to be able to offer the consumer increasing EV value for their hard-earned dollars. No one can match Tesla value now, and there is no sign they will be able to match it in the forseeable future.

For all of these reasons, I find the constant handwringing over the unknown price of the various configurations to be quite misplaced. It would be more rational to wring your hands over the increasing costs of legacy cars and trucks. Cybertruck pricing will be more likely to shock more people with how reasonable it is for what you get, than it will be to shock people with how expensive they are.

Tesla is not in the business of making expensive, low-volume trucks, they want to displace as many ICE trucks as soon as possible and they have a proven history of being able to do that in the automotive market. Tesla would rather sell the first two years of production at slim margins than price themselves out of the high-volume truck market. But I don't think even that will be necessary. When you can build vehicles in large numbers with as much corporate and manufacturing efficiency as Tesla has demonstrated in the recent past, there is plenty of goodness to pass onto your customers.

Even though the writing is already on the wall, legacy auto will be shocked with how much value Tesla is able to deliver to new truck buyers.

 

[charliemagpie]

its interesting.

Elon said Tesla wait times were too far out, and raised their prices to cover the uncertainty of future raw material and other costs.

Legacy on the other hand were using shortages as an excuse, but following Tesla lead, were able to raise their prices to make up losses.

Now that costs are stabilizing, Tesla has lowered car prices.

Legacy has followed suit and cut their car prices to remain competitive.

To now benchmark Legacy EV truck pricing as a guide is flawed. They are not in direct competition with the CT yet.

It is Tesla which should be used as a pricing guide.. not Legacy.

 

[HaulingAss]

its interesting.

Elon said Tesla wait times were too far out, and raised their prices to cover the uncertainty of future raw material and other costs.

Legacy on the other hand were using shortages as an excuse, but following Tesla lead, were able to raise their prices to make up losses.

Now that costs are stabilizing, Tesla has lowered car prices.

Legacy has followed suit and cut their car prices to remain competitive.

To now benchmark Legacy EV truck pricing as a guide is flawed. They are not in direct competition with the CT yet.

It is Tesla which should be used as a pricing guide.. not Legacy.

To be clear, I was not using EV trucks to benchmark the pricing, I was using legacy ICE trucks because those are the real competition for Cybertruck. EV trucks made by legacy auto sell in too small of volumes to have a significant impact on the truck market and Cybertruck will not displace sales of legacy EV trucks, it will displace sales of legacy ICE trucks. Legacy will continue to sell EV trucks in small volumes and for high prices simply because the Cybertruck will be unobtanium without a reservation.

This means legacy ICE trucks (trucks you can actually walk in and buy when you need a truck) are the proper pricing benchmark. That's not to say an EV truck should not sell for somewhat of a premium due to lower operational costs, more power, more convenience, etc., simply that the volume of ICE sales and availability of ICE trucks pretty much dictates that they set the pricing benchmark untill EV trucks are no longer production limited.

 

[charliemagpie]

Good point

unobtanium is the constraint factor. For 2 to 3 years for sure.

Lower running/maintenance costs will be of value making up some difference, it will be interesting to see how loyal ICE buyers value that.

Imagine if the CT remains head and shoulders ahead of their EV competitors, and wins over the hearts and minds of traditional truck buyers.

I can't see unobtanium lasting past 2026. And the numbers are big lol

 

[TyPope]

The truck would be lower range without the vault cover, they'll not sell it without until scraping the bottom of the barrel sales.

When was the last time Tesla sold a car with steel wheels?

-Crissa

Never and never. I don't want one bare bones... I'm all in. I was just saying that if Tesla could not manage to get the price below the $80,000 cut-off, they COULD offer to sell the truck without certain things and at the same time, sell you all those parts a-la-carte... That way, those who want to take advantage of the tax break and are willing to do some DIY, could.

CT price = $89,000. Oh, no, that's too expensive for the credit.

OR


CT price without vault cover $79,999 when purchased in conjunction with the separate $9,001 vault cover is a total of $89,000.

It's skirting the rules because the vault cover would be mandatory prior to buying the vaultless CT but it would be a way to get the price down to incentive levels.

It was all in fun because the CT is just $69,900 for the tri (now quad?) motor version that I'm getting...

 

[Arctic_White]

Even though the writing is already on the wall, legacy auto will be shocked with how much value Tesla is able to deliver to new truck buyers.

Another excellent post by you!

Don't be shocked when Tesla brings out the Cybertruck for $40K with 300 mile range. It may not happen right away but it definitely will.

I've done quite a bit of thinking around this and I expect the Cybertruck to sell over 1M units per year, once the production is fully ramped up. And the only way they do that is by making a very compelling EV truck for $40K.

Remember: the competition isn't other EVs, it's ICE trucks. And the competition isn't coming for Tesla, but rather Tesla is coming for the competition.

In the US, pickups are the # 1 selling type of vehicle. Same with Canada. How large is the pickup market in North America? Maybe 3M units per year? I can easily see Tesla gaining 33% market share. Thats 1M units / year.

Any guesses on when Tesla hits that mark? I say by 2029.

 

[Frank Mendez]

I could see Tesla pricing the dual motor with vault cover and all the other stuff for close to the price they say... maybe with some inflation.

It would be fine by me, if they had to, to offer a quad at $79,999 that includes the FSD that I ordered (back when it was $7,000 and at the time would have made my truck ~$77,000) BUT, because of inflation, they sell it without the vault cover, with steel wheels, etc... and make those items available immediately as distribution center add-ons for a price... Just to get the total price under the $80,000 cap.

(But, I'll get it even if it goes above the cap. I just want my truck and I hope they don't pull a "Dual motor only for now and eventually a quad or "plaid" version will be released" thing because I want the bestest, biggest, mostest, fastest Cybertruck and I want it now!

Hard for me to imagine an option without the vault cover.

 

[Scott Beall]

Just to screw with us all, on Cybertruck final reveal night, they pull the cover off the second vehicle. It’s the perfect Tesla van half of us would love. Another choice…

I dearly love my 2008 diesel Sprinter van, but I'd give it up in a heartbeat for a comparable EV van with a lift gate.

What about the fleet of vans that Amazon has running around? How many miles do they put in every day? less than 500? Nice market there with the transit vans too.

It's about time for the US Post Service to go electric too.

 

[Crissa]

I dearly love my 2008 diesel Sprinter van, but I'd give it up in a heartbeat for a comparable EV van with a lift gate.

What about the fleet of vans that Amazon has running around? How many miles do they put in every day? less than 500? Nice market there with the transit vans too.

It's about time for the US Post Service to go electric too.

That's why Rivian is trying to get out of the Amazon-exclusive contract (also, Amazon is low-ordering, asking for only 10k trucks a year).

https://www.reuters.com/business/au...sivity-part-electric-van-deal-wsj-2023-03-13/

-Crissa

 

[Luke42]

its interesting.

Elon said Tesla wait times were too far out, and raised their prices to cover the uncertainty of future raw material and other costs.

Legacy on the other hand were using shortages as an excuse, but following Tesla lead, were able to raise their prices to make up losses.

Elon was BSing us on this one, because all competent businesses minimize their costs and price their products-and-services based on what the customer will pay.

If we assume everybody selling cars (including Elon) is competent, there's one obvious conclusion: the market values Teslas more than Legacy cars, and all of the car-sellers know it.

The truth is better than fiction.

 

[jerhenderson]

Elon was BSing us on this one, because all competent businesses minimize their costs and price their products-and-services based on what the customer will pay.

If we assume everybody selling cars (including Elon) is competent, there's one obvious conclusion: the market values Teslas more than Legacy cars, and all of the car-sellers know it.

The truth is better than fiction.

he can generate more profit dollars by lowering gross margin to sell more units... . a factor in the recent price reductions asides from also hurting legacy. this i expect will be a CT goal.... he doesn't want them rare in the street - he wants them to be common

 

[Ogre]

If Tesla wanted to just sell, sell, sell we would all be driving $50,000 2023 Model S/X plaids!

Tesla has told us explicitly, multiple times why this isn’t the case.

Model S/ X were designed to be built largely by humans. They are always going to be expensive. Tesla only has capacity to produce a 50,000 - 100,000 / year and they are not going to change this. They’ve expressly said this multiple times. Dropping the price of the Model S would not increase sales because Tesla can’t produce more than ~60k/ year.

Cybertruck was designed to be automated from the start. It was designed to be produced in large volume from the start. They plan on selling literally 10 times more Cybertrucks than Model S/X.

They’ve said all of this explicitly. There is no guesswork here.

 

[Alpine]

Tesla has told us explicitly, multiple times why this isn’t the case.

Model S/ X were designed to be built largely by humans. They are always going to be expensive. Tesla only has capacity to produce a 50,000 - 100,000 / year and they are not going to change this. They’ve expressly said this multiple times. Dropping the price of the Model S would not increase sales because Tesla can’t produce more than ~60k/ year.

Cybertruck was designed to be automated from the start. It was designed to be produced in large volume from the start. They plan on selling literally 10 times more Cybertrucks than Model S/X.

They’ve said all of this explicitly. There is no guesswork here.

Everyone knows this or at least should know this if they are posting here. It must be a psychological reaction to want the price so high. Some folks predict the CT4 will be like buying a baby Lambo. Having seen so much back and forth on price, im convinced those who predict absurdly high numbers have a need deep down for CT to be more exclusive than it was designed to be