Honoring Original Estimated Pricing

[HaulingAss]

teslas margins are high for all of the models of their business I've mentioned, plus they are intelligent enough to have cash to pay for their new factories, etc, and not heavily debt financed. a poor business strategy is to accept low margins - 'the race to the bottom' scenario.

This is true. Many people have been slow to realize just how efficiently Tesla can manufacture new vehicles. This is already lowering the cost to new car buyers by bringing better products to market for less money. Tesla is still in the early stages of lowering vehicle prices while increasing longevity.

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[SpaceYooper]

If sold at reveal price without a restrictive sales contract Tesla would be negligent of is obligations to share holders.

LOL . Seriously, that's hilarious!

 

[Ogre]

You’re both cannot possibly believe scalping doesn’t effect the retail price. You’re both delusional if you cannot accept scalping effects the retail price. Why else would Teslas profit margins be so high?

It’s been good value sharpening this idea with you. I’m yet to find a compelling argument against this suggestion. It’s all hypothetical and unlikely to actually reach the person that would make a decision on it it’s all mute anyway.

At some point are you going to bring some math or something meaningful to this conversation to back up your idea? You haven’t even said how many people Tesla should insert into the queue ahead of me for this to work. Then I can judge properly exactly how much you are trying to screw us over.

Because you saying the same thing over and over and insulting people randomly has gotten boring.

 

[Ogre]

Do you want launch prices to be high or do you want to scalp your reservation?

Since you refuse to put any numbers out there it’s impossible to even discuss this. It is fundamentally flawed and it’s been pointed out that this argument is flawed. WITH MATH in the past. Since you ignore any arguments that use logic, math, or economics and throw up walls of endlessly repeating text.

Tired of the repetition. PUT UP OR SHUT UP.

How would this work? How many? How much? How big an impact would it have on Tesla’s Cybertruck profits as a percentage?

Do the math and you’ll see how ridiculous this really is.

 

[Ogre]

 

[Deleted member 3316]

You haven’t even said how many people Tesla should insert into the queue ahead of me for this to work.

Ok, so this is your major misunderstanding, I’m not suggesting Tesla “insert people ahead of you”

I’m suggesting scalpers already have a place ahead of you. A non reservation holder is going to pay them (instead of Tesla) to get their truck before you.

Since you refuse to put any numbers out there it’s impossible to even discuss this. It is fundamentally flawed and it’s been pointed out that this argument is flawed.

The actual numbers are irrelevant, Tesla will get an idea as to how many reservations would have been scalped when then cancellations come through, (I gave you 10-20%). You haven’t articulated any flaws, you’ve pointed out misunderstandings.

Since you ignore any arguments that use logic, math, or economics and throw up walls of endlessly repeating text.

You haven’t brought any logic or math or economics to this discussion but I’m still here trying to help you figure out how to get your truck quicker and cheaper.

I did try to confirm basic facts with you, so you could understand the logic.

Most people that attempt to argue against this are scalpers trying to protect their potential to profit off Tesla. I believe your objection to it is a misunderstanding.

I’m not suggesting Tesla “slot people ahead” of you. I’m suggesting those slots already exist and a Tesla is going to lose profit potential because of it or need to raise prices suggested at reveal to mitigate the loses.

We are discussing a hypothetical with counterfactuals, I realise that can be quite difficult to parse. Hard numbers are not required to understand the theory and would be an unnecessary source of objection (confusion).

You’re getting kinda worked up about this. I’m looking for a flaw in my argument which is why I brought the idea to a forum. If you’re not interested in examining it just leave it alone.

 

[Deleted member 3316]

LOL . Seriously, that's hilarious!

Come on then, parse it out.

 

[Deleted member 3316]

This is true. Many people have been slow to realize just how efficiently Tesla can manufacture new vehicles. This is already lowering the cost to new car buyers by bringing better products to market for less money. Tesla is still in the early stages of lowering vehicle prices while increasing longevity.

A linear decrease in price leads to an exponential increase in demand.

Maybe you guys need Steven Mark Ryan to explain this to you… I’m clearly doing a hash job of it.

 

[Ogre]

You haven’t brought any logic or math or economics to this discussion but I’m still here trying to help you figure out how to get your truck quicker and cheaper

#1 Yes I did, several times, you ignored it each time

#2 I’m not the one who suggested there is a huge problem and that I have the solution.

#3 We can’t even talk about this vague concept you’ve cooked up unless we know what it might look like.

Right now there is literally nothing to discuss.

“Some” will scalp - how many? How did you get this number?

”Some” will buy their way ahead of the queue? Again, how many? 2? 50,000? How many?

“Some” will not scalp after this - how many? How did you get this number?

”It will make the truck cheaper for existing reservation holders” How much cheaper? Based on what math?

”It will be better for Tesla shareholders” - How much will it affect EPS?


How exactly do I plug in numbers into Your Scheme?

I’m suggesting scalpers already have a place ahead of you. A non reservation holder is going to pay them (instead of Tesla) to get their truck before you.

You keep repeating these points as if somehow it changes something.

How will your idea change anything.

Use the keys above the letters, if you want any weight to your comments. If you don’t actually put some numbers up, don’t bother replying because I‘ve read far too many of your words on this topic.

 

[Deleted member 3316]

#1 Yes I did, several times, you ignored it each time

Where?

#2 I’m not the one who suggested there is a huge problem and that I have the solution.

If you’re going to rally against something you don’t understand, I can’t help you.

#3 We can’t even talk about this vague concept you’ve cooked up unless we know what it might look like.

It’s all here… https://www.cybertruckownersclub.com/forum/threads/cybercatch22-demand-vs-delay.8179/

Some” will scalp - how many? How did you get this number?

”Some” will buy their way ahead of the queue? Again, how many? 2? 50,000? How many?

“Some” will not scalp after this - how many? How did you get this number?

”It will make the truck cheaper for existing reservation holders” How much cheaper? Based on what math?

”It will be better for Tesla shareholders” - How much will it affect EPS?

Only Tesla has access to these numbers and they are mostly irrelevant to the broad concept of this hypothetical.

You cannot define your objection to this without trying to tie it up in the weeds of hard numbers and percentages, they are irrelevant to the broad discussion. (Yes someone would need to calculate its effects, the framework is there, if you want to try getting the info from Tesla.)

I have been trying to find out what is the fundamental flaw in changing the market strategy.

Clearly the first one is adequately articulating the suggested change.

The second is managing the PR risk of disruption to parasitic profiteers,( likely using similar tactics as short sellers)

The third is actually quantifying the effects of the intervention through counterfactuals.

Even though you’ve been actively unhelpful, it’s been insightful all the same. I’m glad we agree on one thing, CyberTruck is an awesome vehicle that will be extremely popular.

 

[Kahpernicus]

There’s no way Tesla will sell the first two years of production at a slim margin. It will likely take at least three years to get up to producing anywhere near the reservation list.

2023 1000-20,000
2024 250k - 350k
2025 450k - 750k
2026 600k - 1.5million

Any vehicles sold to reservation holders at low margin are highly likely to be resold at significant profit. Tesla is not going to give up that profit potential.

Tesla's production capacity is not only. doubling year over year.

It's a massive ramp up year over year.

 

[Ogre]

A lot of words they should know I wouldn’t read.

Pick one:

A) Put up.

B) Shut up.


Telling people they don’t understand the thing you can’t even put down is silly.

 

[Deleted member 3316]

Tesla's production capacity is not only. doubling year over year.

It's a massive ramp up year over year.

Yep, and it will take a long time to get through that reservation list, the FOMO is going to be epic.

 

[Deleted member 3316]

Pick one:

A) Put up.

B) Shut up.

If you’re not interested in discussing this then stop.

 

[HaulingAss]

The basic flaw here is the assumption that because some early reservation holders will resell their first Cybertruck delivery for a higher price, that will require Tesla to raise prices on other reservation holders.

The reason it's flawed is because Tesla will not raise prices simply because a few reservation holders decide to profit instead of owning the latest and greatest, particularly when they realize if they sell it as soon as they take delivery, they will end up blacklisted from being to buy another anytime soon.

Furthermore, I doubt Tesla will deliver (for example) 10 Cybertrucks to the person who has low reservation numbers before clearing out the reservation que. Tesla is under no legal obligation to follow the reservation que in order if they determine it's better to limit early deliveries to one or two Cybertrucks per individual. They have wide latitude to fill reservations in an order that is fair and equitable and that is obviously subjective.

If you want to take this ridiculous argument further, I suggest you support your odd belief that scalpers will force Tesla to raise prices. Tesla will price Cybertruck where they think it can sell in large volumes without making downward adjustments simply because the early frenzy is over. That means early reservationists can choose to sell it for a profit and be Cybertruckless, or keep it and consider it a good deal for being able to drive the latest and greatest. This is the normal way it works when a new model's demand temporarily outstrips early production. The manufacturer is generally loathe to profiteer from initial high demand. In the case of legacy auto, the stealerships have no such sense of fairness and will add on huge dealer mark-ups.

Your views make absolutely no sense because they assume Tesla operates in a greedy manner like stealerships. They have no history of doing this. In other words, you are talking out of your butt.

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