agordon117
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- cybertruck foundation awd
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So I posted this in another thread, and did a bit more work on it since. Someone had posted that their delivery center told them 875 trucks had been delivered when we only had record of between 100 and 150 trucks. So I settled on a ratio of 1:8 for all future assumptions in this post. It seems to be close to reality. It will obviously vary day by day, and my data is not complete. Feel free to disagree with any of my assumptions, tell me I'm wrong, etc. I just figured this was more productive than checking for my vin 20 more times today, and thought maybe people would find this interesting. Before I start the theory, here are important things to note:
1: @cgladue has been doing a fantastic job compiling the data that we have on this forum. However, through no fault of his, vins assigned per day are less accurate the closer you get to the present day. I have been keeping a running list of vins assigned per day, and had to update the last 7-10 days of it because the numbers had been updated. This is caused by owners not reporting here immediately when they get their vin. For example, only 3 owners have reported a VIN assigned on 3/7, I am guesing that will be closer to 6 or 7 by this time next week. So the more recent the data is, the less accurate it is.
2: Another reason that the more recent vin assignments do not match the 1:8 assumption as closely with the outbound lot numbers, is because they have been shipping the line skipper trucks, meaning that the vin assignments are skewed away from people on this forum artificially. This is most clear the first couple of days of this month, where the shipments far exceeded the estimate. This is combined with point #1 to cause the disparity on shipments vs known vin assignments.
3: We have a VIN assignment of 22xx on 2/22, and one of 24xx on 2/28. As of 3/8, the first known 34xx vin has been assigned. Vins are assigned out of order, but these numbers all line up as plausible. If we see a later 34xx assignment, or earlier 22xx assignment, that will make my numbers work out as well as 22xx on 2/22 and 24xx on 2/28 do.
4: I have gone through and manually counted the outbound lot in the flyover videos. There are no flyovers on sunday, so my data is incomplete. I did my best, but they have not made perfect passes over the lot for me to be able to count the trucks on both sides with the same level of certainty each day. I may be off a couple of trucks in either direction.
5: I'm mostly focused on the data starting the week of 2/19. Prior to that, the outbound lot was new/in a different location, and the logistics have clearly changed.
The theory:
The number of trucks seen in the outbound lot during the flyover each morning very closely represents the number of trucks that leave the factory each day. If you want to know the output of trucks on a given day, watch a flyover, count the trucks there, and you'll be very close to the actual number of outbound trucks on that day.
We had previously thought that the outbound lot was just showing a snapshot in time, and that trucks were constantly being sent to outbound throughout the day. But my chart below shows strong correlation between the extrapolated number of vins assigned per day, and the number of trucks shipped one or two days later.
This also seems to take the 1:8 ratio of orders vs people on this forum, and make it very plausible. Everyone has had their own assumptions about how many people are reporting here vs the total population of orders, and this is the closest thing we have to real data about that
As you can see, the total values for the snapshot here of extrapolated vins vs number in outbound during flyover match almost perfectly. I don't want to massage the data too much to make my point, but you also have to note that the vins assigned are likely 1-3 days before the trucks go to the outbound lot. So if I excluded the numbers on either end where the trucks haven't been shipped yet, the number of shipped trucks would properly exceed the 1:8 assumption, based on points 1 and 2 above.
Sorry for the long read, hopefully someone besides me found this interesting.
1: @cgladue has been doing a fantastic job compiling the data that we have on this forum. However, through no fault of his, vins assigned per day are less accurate the closer you get to the present day. I have been keeping a running list of vins assigned per day, and had to update the last 7-10 days of it because the numbers had been updated. This is caused by owners not reporting here immediately when they get their vin. For example, only 3 owners have reported a VIN assigned on 3/7, I am guesing that will be closer to 6 or 7 by this time next week. So the more recent the data is, the less accurate it is.
2: Another reason that the more recent vin assignments do not match the 1:8 assumption as closely with the outbound lot numbers, is because they have been shipping the line skipper trucks, meaning that the vin assignments are skewed away from people on this forum artificially. This is most clear the first couple of days of this month, where the shipments far exceeded the estimate. This is combined with point #1 to cause the disparity on shipments vs known vin assignments.
3: We have a VIN assignment of 22xx on 2/22, and one of 24xx on 2/28. As of 3/8, the first known 34xx vin has been assigned. Vins are assigned out of order, but these numbers all line up as plausible. If we see a later 34xx assignment, or earlier 22xx assignment, that will make my numbers work out as well as 22xx on 2/22 and 24xx on 2/28 do.
4: I have gone through and manually counted the outbound lot in the flyover videos. There are no flyovers on sunday, so my data is incomplete. I did my best, but they have not made perfect passes over the lot for me to be able to count the trucks on both sides with the same level of certainty each day. I may be off a couple of trucks in either direction.
5: I'm mostly focused on the data starting the week of 2/19. Prior to that, the outbound lot was new/in a different location, and the logistics have clearly changed.
The theory:
The number of trucks seen in the outbound lot during the flyover each morning very closely represents the number of trucks that leave the factory each day. If you want to know the output of trucks on a given day, watch a flyover, count the trucks there, and you'll be very close to the actual number of outbound trucks on that day.
We had previously thought that the outbound lot was just showing a snapshot in time, and that trucks were constantly being sent to outbound throughout the day. But my chart below shows strong correlation between the extrapolated number of vins assigned per day, and the number of trucks shipped one or two days later.
This also seems to take the 1:8 ratio of orders vs people on this forum, and make it very plausible. Everyone has had their own assumptions about how many people are reporting here vs the total population of orders, and this is the closest thing we have to real data about that
| Date: | Vins assigned: | Extrapolated Vins per day | Number in outbound during flyover |
| 2/16/24 | 1 | 8 | |
| 2/17/24 | 1 | 8 | |
| 2/18/24 | 3 | 24 | |
| 2/19/24 | 2 | 16 | 12 |
| 2/20/24 | 6 | 48 | 19 |
| 2/21/24 | 6 | 48 | 22 |
| 2/22/24 | 5 | 40 | 16 |
| 2/23/24 | 5 | 40 | 46 |
| 2/24/24 | 2 | 16 | 42 |
| 2/25/24 | 3 | 24 | |
| 2/26/24 | 4 | 32 | 23 |
| 2/27/24 | 6 | 48 | 31 |
| 2/28/24 | 5 | 40 | 41 |
| 2/29/24 | 3 | 24 | 46 |
| 3/1/24 | 3 | 24 | 45 |
| 3/2/24 | 3 | 24 | 55 |
| 3/3/24 | 1 | 8 | |
| 3/4/24 | 6 | 48 | 48 |
| 3/5/24 | 4 | 32 | 59 |
| 3/6/24 | 8 | 64 | 49 |
| 3/7/24 | 5 | 40 | 27 |
| 3/8/24 | 7 | 56 | 27 |
| 3/9/24 | 1 | 8 | 36 |
| 3/10/24 | 4 | 32 | |
| Total | 712 | 644 |
As you can see, the total values for the snapshot here of extrapolated vins vs number in outbound during flyover match almost perfectly. I don't want to massage the data too much to make my point, but you also have to note that the vins assigned are likely 1-3 days before the trucks go to the outbound lot. So if I excluded the numbers on either end where the trucks haven't been shipped yet, the number of shipped trucks would properly exceed the 1:8 assumption, based on points 1 and 2 above.
Sorry for the long read, hopefully someone besides me found this interesting.
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