Project Highland might be Elon's 2020s version of Henry Ford's Highland Park

[firsttruck]

Many people remember Henry Ford's River Rouge Complex but forgot it's more industry disrupting predecessor "Highland Park" where Model T produced. It involved much more than just use of assembly line.

Elon's Project Highland might not be a car model but might be the next version machine (factory) which builds machines (vehicles).

Tesla's price cuts this last couple months is peanuts compared to auto price drops from 1907 to 1925, average inflation-adjusted price of a car dropped to 1/20th of the in 1907 ( 95% drop in 18 years, similar to drops in computer price of last 20-30 years).

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Jan 28, 2023 - video by Connecting The Dots

Elon's Project Highland, Ford & Tesla Model Tau | A Manufacturing Revolution Pt1 Cracking Easter Egg
Project Highland is much more than a Model 3 upgrade. If what I'm reading is right, it's the start of a new manufacturing revolution that will also include the Tesla Model Two/Tau! Let's dive into history and see how a past disruption hints at a future one. It's an optimistic moonshot and time will tell which parts of it are right, but even if only some of them are - then wow... Just wow!

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Ford’s Highland Park
Highland Park was the birthplace of Ford’s moving assembly line, which led to mass production of the iconic Model T. In September of 1907, Henry Ford purchased a 130-acre tract of land in Highland Park, Michigan
https://corporate.ford.com/articles/history/highland-park.html

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The moving assembly line for automobiles was first operated in Highland Park in October of 1913, and production of Model Ts at the plant went from hundreds a day to thousands a day. As a result, the price of a Model T was reduced from $850 to $260, allowing the average working family to afford one. After Henry Ford instituted the $5 day wage increase in 1914, Highland Park’s employment rose to a peak of almost 70,000 in 1925.

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Tesla Kicks Off The 'great EV deflation,' Says a Bullish Morgan Stanley
Jan 27, 2023
By Eva Fox
H/t SawyerMerritt on Twitter
https://www.tesmanian.com/blogs/tes...tion-says-morgan-stanley-bullish-on-the-maker

Tesla is launching the “great deflation of electric vehicles,” says Morgan Stanley.

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Morgan Stanley report says,
The Model T entry-level “Runabout” cost $825 in 1909 (about $24,000 in today's dollars), or less than 1/3 the price of an average car at the time. However, the moving assembly line allowed for a significant increase in volumes, leading to even more deflation in car prices. By 1913, the price of a “Runabout” had dropped to $525, and by 1920 to $395. By 1925, the average price of the Model T “Runabout” was $260 ($3,790 in today's dollars), about 1/20th of the average inflation-adjusted price of a car in 1907.

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Electric vehicles could cost less than $5,000 some day, Morgan Stanley analysts predict
By Tim Levin
March 16, 2021
https://sports.yahoo.com/electric-vehicles-could-cost-less-153604303.html

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A new electric car could eventually cost as little as $3,000, Morgan Stanley analysts said.

The bank expects electric-vehicle prices to continue to drop for the next decade at least.

Plummeting EV prices could render gas-powered cars completely obsolete, they said.

In 2021, Citroën Ami costs around $6,600 in Europe. Citroën

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** This is why a $20K Arcimoto three-wheeled EVs vehicles never made sense.

2023 Citroën Ami Electric
Lease to own from £19.99/MONTH (approx. USD 25 per month )
Launch Price (France): 6,000 Euros (approx. USD 6,000 )

https://www.citroen.co.uk/ami

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* So far in 2023, Citroën Ami /Opel Rocks-e is available in France, Germany, UK, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Portugal.

Citroën’s Tiny EV Is Coming to the US The Ami is coming as part of a new subscription service. By Wes Raynal
May 6, 2021
https://www.autoweek.com/news/green-cars/a36351549/citroen-ev-coming/

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Stellantis Group's Free2Move said its monthly price includes insurance, assistance, and maintenance and said it offers a flexible contract without commitment on duration. The service is available in Washington, DC, and will be in Portland and Los Angeles soon.


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Free2move: Car Share & Rental
https://apps.apple.com/il/app/free2move-car-share-rental/id1497508380?l=iw

The Free2Move carsharing service is available in Lisbon, Madrid, Paris, Washington DC and soon in Portland! Several models available: Citroën AMI, Peugeot e-208, DS 3 Crossback, Citroën C-Zero, Chevrolet Equinox, Chevrolet Cruze, Peugeot iOn, Citroën Berlingo and soon Jeep!

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Citroën Ami /Opel Rocks-e
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citroën_Ami_(electric_vehicle)


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[Ogre]

Made a post based on some similar thoughts I had (not 100% my own), I’ve cross posted it below.

I think the Highland reference is spot on. (Some of these might duplicate stuff in CtD video)

• Master Plan 3 is about scaling up production being the most important thing.
• Musk mentioned the next gen vehicle will be half as expensive to produce than the Model 3 (Q3 2022 earnings call).
• Tesla is building their own lithium processing facility, cathode factory, cell factories, battery packaging, they do on-site recycling, they make their own seats… Lots of stuff Ford did at their Rogue River plant.
• Tesla has suddenly started hiding stuff from the drones (it’s that second GP I tell you!!)
• March 1st call…. ??? Seems to be at the middle of a lot of this.

Also, is this normal? It looks like a robot football team in a huddle. There are 11 robot arms in this picture. Almost looks like photo edit job.

For a long time, I said the Dual Motor Cybertruck would end up right around the cost of the dual motor Model Y. Recent price cut and some other things have made me reconsider this. It’s very likely Tesla put Cybertruck pricing out there expecting the price of the Dual Motor Model Y would come down. And given some things I’ve seen and hints… I think the Model Y pricing may come down again, possibly before the Cybertruck is launched.

Tesla named their new Model 3 variant “Highland”. It is an interesting name and some have suggested it referenced Highlander “There can be only One”… but someone pointed out another (better) connection. Ford’s Highland Park was the birthplace of the automotive assembly line.

Shortly after Ford launched their Highland Park, the Model T was introduced at about 1/3 the cost of normal cars at the time and then over the next 3 years the price of the Model T plunged 40% in 3 years (twitter linked analyst notes). Tesla’s choice of names here makes me wonder if they are bringing down prices across the board.


Anyhow… long post.

TLDR: Launch prices plus a possible nudge for inflation.

 

[Ogre]

Electric vehicles could cost less than $5,000 some day, Morgan Stanley analysts predict

In 2021, Citroën Ami costs around $6,600 in Europe. Citroën

** This is why a $20K Arcimoto three-wheeled EVs vehicles never made sense.

American auto companies and a complacent media have spent the past 30 years convincing Americans they are only save if they have 8,000 pounds of metal surrounding them. Neither this, nor the Arcimoto make any sense in the US where it’s perceived as super risky. Look at the Arcimoto thread for a sample of US auto propaganda at work. People who drive tiny cars get mocked here.

Arcimotos problems go deeper than this though. Last year their production was in the hundreds in a factory that’s supposed to be producing 25,000 vehicles a year. If they were producing in any kind of volume, they would likely be able to get prices down to where they need to be.

Manufacturing is hard. Particularly for a scrappy startup in an Oregon backwater city.

 

[FutureBoy]

2023 Citroën Ami Electric
Lease to own from £19.99/MONTH (approx. USD 25 per month )
Launch Price (France): 6,000 Euros (approx. USD 6,000 )

https://www.citroen.co.uk/ami

--------------------------------

* So far in 2023, Citroën Ami /Opel Rocks-e is available in France, Germany, UK, Spain, Italy, Belgium, Portugal.

Citroën’s Tiny EV Is Coming to the US The Ami is coming as part of a new subscription service. By Wes Raynal
May 6, 2021
https://www.autoweek.com/news/green-cars/a36351549/citroen-ev-coming/

.....
Stellantis Group's Free2Move said its monthly price includes insurance, assistance, and maintenance and said it offers a flexible contract without commitment on duration. The service is available in Washington, DC, and will be in Portland and Los Angeles soon.


--------------------------------

Free2move: Car Share & Rental
https://apps.apple.com/il/app/free2move-car-share-rental/id1497508380?l=iw

The Free2Move carsharing service is available in Lisbon, Madrid, Paris, Washington DC and soon in Portland! Several models available: Citroën AMI, Peugeot e-208, DS 3 Crossback, Citroën C-Zero, Chevrolet Equinox, Chevrolet Cruze, Peugeot iOn, Citroën Berlingo and soon Jeep!

--------------------------------

Citroën Ami /Opel Rocks-e
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Citroën_Ami_(electric_vehicle)

To be honest, I would trade out one of our family vehicles for an EV like Ami. Don't get me wrong, I'm still 100% in on CT. But a lot (maybe 60%) of the driving we do as a family is within a 6-7 mile radius. The quad-cycle speed limitations would be a bit of a problem on some local roads but mostly it could work. If only WA would allow these kinds of vehicles.

Now this could change if Tesla puts out a vehicle at a similar price point. Just seeing all the extra you get behind the Tesla name makes a Tesla vehicle so much more desirable than a "comparable" alternative EV.

The main problem I would have with the Ami is that it only has 2 seats but I have 2 kids. But even that can be worked around if we plan around it effectively.

 

[charliemagpie]

You plan for 25,000 and make 400 and then the orders dry up.


"A fool and his money are easily parted"


When money parts, one side has it.

 

[Ogre]

To be honest, I would trade out one of our family vehicles for an EV like Ami. Don't get me wrong, I'm still 100% in on CT. But a lot (maybe 60%) of the driving we do as a family is within a 6-7 mile radius. The quad-cycle speed limitations would be a bit of a problem on some local roads but mostly it could work. If only WA would allow these kinds of vehicles.

Now this could change if Tesla puts out a vehicle at a similar price point. Just seeing all the extra you get behind the Tesla name makes a Tesla vehicle so much more desirable than a "comparable" alternative EV.

The main problem I would have with the Ami is that it only has 2 seats but I have 2 kids. But even that can be worked around if we plan around it effectively.

I would love a sub $10k 2 seat EV. I was seriously thinking about getting an Arcimoto for around town use. Having a cheap vehicle and the Cybertruck for road tripping would be great.

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