TruckElectric

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How Big Could Tesla's Revenue From The Cybertruck Be By 2026?
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Cybertruck could add $5 billion to Tesla's top-line

  • In late 2019, Tesla unveiled its first electric pickup truck last dubbed "Cybertruck," featuring a radical design and prices ranging from $40k and upwards.
  • Tesla's interest in the market is understandable, given that pickup trucks have been a big moneymaker for auto majors, with GM previously indicating that it garners as much as $17k in pretax profits from larger pickups, which typically sell for $50k.
  • While the Cybertruck appears to have impressive technology and performance, it remains to be seen if traditional truck owners, who are typically very brand loyal, will take to the vehicle.
  • Based on our estimates, the vehicle could add over $5 billion to the company's revenues by 2026. For perspective, this would be about 15% of the company's 2020 revenues.
Sources:
Pickup Truck Revenue, Shipment statistics: Statista
Loyalty Statistics: Strategic Vision



See what $5 billion means for


Ford sold about 889k trucks over 2020, compared to 690k for GM's Chevrolet , 564k for Chrysler’s Ram, and 348k for Toyota

Screen Shot 2021-12-15 at 3.05.55 PM.png

Sizing Up The Potential Of The Cybertruck

Interest in the Cybertruck is likely to be lower than Tesla's other products. It took 3 days to reach 200k bookings compared to 1 day for Model 3, despite the deposit amount being just a tenth of Model 3's deposit.

Screen Shot 2021-12-15 at 3.08.37 PM.png


Brand loyalty in the truck market is very high, meaning that Tesla could have a tough time going after existing owners

Screen Shot 2021-12-15 at 3.11.27 PM.png


Production startup could begin in 2022, & we believe the vehicle could hit the market by 2023

  • While Tesla has not provided a concrete launch date for the vehicle, production startup could begin in 2022 and we assume that the truck could hit the market by 2023.
  • Tesla has been somewhat circumspect about the prospects of the truck, indicating that its long-term sales could be below the Model S/X (which have historically sold under ~100k units a year)
  • We assume that Tesla will garner 1% of the total volumes of the top five players combined in 2024, with the number growing to 3% by 2026.
  • We assume that the average selling price for the vehicle will be $65k as Tesla focuses on higher-end models at launch while introducing lower-priced models eventually.
  • This would translate into revenues of about $1.7 billion in 2024, growing to about $5 billion by 2026.

We estimate that Cybertruck Deliveries could rise from 29k units in 2024 to over 90k units by 2026

Screen Shot 2021-12-15 at 3.13.13 PM.png


Cybertruck Revenues could grow from $1.7 billion in 2024 to about $5 billion by 2026, assuming ASP of $55k

Screen Shot 2021-12-15 at 3.15.00 PM.png


https://dashboards.trefis.com/data/...sla-s-Revenue-From-The-Cybertruck-Be-By-2026-
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Throwcomputer

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That would be a lower delivery number in 2024 than Tesla is doing Model S Plaid this year.

-Crissa
90k units by 2026, estimated 3 years after launch. Seems like they are way too conservative based on the factory estimated maximum output. If Tesla is only producing 90k in 2026, sounds like they would be practically going out of business . Not adding billions to revenue.
 

Crissa

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90k units by 2026, estimated 3 years after launch. Seems like they are way too conservative based on the factory estimated maximum output. If Tesla is only producing 90k in 2026, sounds like they would be practically going out of business . Not adding millions to revenue.
At that rate they'd never get through the backlog.

-Crissa
 

Throwcomputer

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Are you F*ing kidding me?

They are off by an order of magnitude. Almost certainly 290k before 2024 and very possibly 900k before 2026.
Yeah at their rate I'd definitely be getting my truck at the most dramatic estimates some on here throw out there. Like 15 years from now! Haha

Its comical how some of these articles present Tesla. I'm not even a tesla fanboy and I think some of these articles came from the dregs of the dark net. ;)
 

Sirfun

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How Big Could Tesla's Revenue From The Cybertruck Be By 2026?
ShareProvide Feedback
Base

Cybertruck could add $5 billion to Tesla's top-line

  • In late 2019, Tesla unveiled its first electric pickup truck last dubbed "Cybertruck," featuring a radical design and prices ranging from $40k and upwards.
  • Tesla's interest in the market is understandable, given that pickup trucks have been a big moneymaker for auto majors, with GM previously indicating that it garners as much as $17k in pretax profits from larger pickups, which typically sell for $50k.
  • While the Cybertruck appears to have impressive technology and performance, it remains to be seen if traditional truck owners, who are typically very brand loyal, will take to the vehicle.
  • Based on our estimates, the vehicle could add over $5 billion to the company's revenues by 2026. For perspective, this would be about 15% of the company's 2020 revenues.
Sources:
Pickup Truck Revenue, Shipment statistics: Statista
Loyalty Statistics: Strategic Vision



See what $5 billion means for


Ford sold about 889k trucks over 2020, compared to 690k for GM's Chevrolet , 564k for Chrysler’s Ram, and 348k for Toyota

Screen Shot 2021-12-15 at 3.05.55 PM.png

Sizing Up The Potential Of The Cybertruck

Interest in the Cybertruck is likely to be lower than Tesla's other products. It took 3 days to reach 200k bookings compared to 1 day for Model 3, despite the deposit amount being just a tenth of Model 3's deposit.

Screen Shot 2021-12-15 at 3.08.37 PM.png


Brand loyalty in the truck market is very high, meaning that Tesla could have a tough time going after existing owners

Screen Shot 2021-12-15 at 3.11.27 PM.png


Production startup could begin in 2022, & we believe the vehicle could hit the market by 2023

  • While Tesla has not provided a concrete launch date for the vehicle, production startup could begin in 2022 and we assume that the truck could hit the market by 2023.
  • Tesla has been somewhat circumspect about the prospects of the truck, indicating that its long-term sales could be below the Model S/X (which have historically sold under ~100k units a year)
  • We assume that Tesla will garner 1% of the total volumes of the top five players combined in 2024, with the number growing to 3% by 2026.
  • We assume that the average selling price for the vehicle will be $65k as Tesla focuses on higher-end models at launch while introducing lower-priced models eventually.
  • This would translate into revenues of about $1.7 billion in 2024, growing to about $5 billion by 2026.

We estimate that Cybertruck Deliveries could rise from 29k units in 2024 to over 90k units by 2026

Screen Shot 2021-12-15 at 3.13.13 PM.png


Cybertruck Revenues could grow from $1.7 billion in 2024 to about $5 billion by 2026, assuming ASP of $55k

Screen Shot 2021-12-15 at 3.15.00 PM.png


https://dashboards.trefis.com/data/...sla-s-Revenue-From-The-Cybertruck-Be-By-2026-
Bryan, when anybody that has done any research at all looks at this piece, the immediate reaction is GARBAGE! Filled with WAY out of reality estimates, and speculation.

Do you find any of this credible? If you don't find something credible, why post it anywhere! So many people post garbage on the internet, it just gets frustrating! I can't see how you would believe this crap so please filter, or at least give some opinion explaining why it's worth spending any time reading it! 🤮
 

Throwcomputer

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Bryan, when anybody that has done any research at all looks at this piece, the immediate reaction is GARBAGE! Filled with WAY out of reality estimates, and speculation.

Do you find any of this credible? If you don't find something credible, why post it anywhere! So many people post garbage on the internet, it just gets frustrating! I can't see how you would believe this crap so please filter, or at least give some opinion explaining why it's worth spending any time reading it! 🤮
"Click Bait"
 
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TruckElectric

TruckElectric

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Bryan, when anybody that has done any research at all looks at this piece, the immediate reaction is GARBAGE! Filled with WAY out of reality estimates, and speculation.

Do you find any of this credible? If you don't find something credible, why post it anywhere! So many people post garbage on the internet, it just gets frustrating! I can't see how you would believe this crap so please filter, or at least give some opinion explaining why it's worth spending any time reading it! 🤮

I can see where they get the numbers(they do provide stats) although it's low-ball for sure.

My guess is Cybertruck will outdo these estimates, hopefully by far.

Don't take it too seriously. I don't.
 

Sirfun

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I can see where they get the numbers(they do provide stats) although it's low-ball for sure.

My guess is Cybertruck will outdo these estimates, hopefully by far.

Don't take it too seriously. I don't.
I clicked on those provided stats and one is a WSJ article from the day after the CT reveal 11/22/2019. The other is behind a paywall. After seeing all the useless CRAP you keep posting, I've decided enough is enough. Folks, hover over his photo and then click IGNORE.

I Just did,

Buh Bye Bryan!
 

charliemagpie

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I've noticed more articles that seem rational with its enthusiasm for Tesla, only to lead into grossly sandbagged estimates.

It's like these articles aim is to capture the reader's respect and then underestimating Teslas future worth.

We are witnessing the growth of a new kind of FUD

Obviously they can't stick to the old narratives because Tesla has surpassed those doubts.. Now it's an attack on peoples belief in Tesla's leadership in the industry.

It will run its course, and a new tactic will emerge.... but eventually it will all peter out.
 

Ehninger1212

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While I agree with everyone that the 29K in 2024 seems low.. Tesla doesnt exactly have the best reputation of meeting production expectations. I mean.. So far the Model Y is the only vehicle they put into production ahead of schedule or (on time)

I just think the overall graph and chart showing just how big the CT will be for Tesla is awesome, I think each production number the author gave will be triple/quadruple what they are showing.

Keep in mind batteries are still the largest constraint.
 
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