Q2 FUD is abounding today

[jerhenderson]

Anyone else notice the Q2 close FUD out there today?
- Tesla delivery streak may end!
- Ford and GM set to eat Tesla's lunch in 4 years.
- etc

hahahahahaha

Do you think Motortrend or Barron's knows how stupid this makes them look?

For a Q2 YOY delivery beat, Tesla needs to exceed 202k vehicles.

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[Crissa]

Four years, huh?

Wasn't it also 'in four years' last year?

-Crissa

 

[John K]

In 4 years is the same when I tell my wife I will do it Tuesday.

I can save money on flowers if I actually do it Tuesday

 

[HaulingAss]

Four years, huh?

Wasn't it also 'in four years' last year?

-Crissa

I think the competition has always been coming in the next year or or two. Now it's not for four years so we have that going for us, LOL!

It looks like the FUDsters have to push their dumb FUD out further and further into the future in order for anyone to take them seriously. If the trend continues into 2025 then the competition should be arriving in 2032 or so!

 

[jerhenderson]

Four years, huh?

Wasn't it also 'in four years' last year?

-Crissa

I think it was 4 years, 4 years ago.

 

[FutureBoy]

Ford and GM set to eat Tesla's lunch in 4 years

Yes, if they REALLY, REALLY, work hard, in 4 years Ford and GM just might pass up where Tesla is right now. LOL.

Hint: In 4 years Tesla will be doing numbers astronomically better than their current numbers. Good luck catching up Ford and GM.

 

[MilliM]

IMO Tesla can continue to crush it AND the competition can be getting much fiercer at the same time.

If you deny there are substantially more solid alternatives to Tesla than even a year ago you have blinders on, but with supply chain constraints and rising EV adoption it’s fair to say you can have both a dominant Tesla and plenty of strong competitors.

This coming from someone with a sub 2,500 RN from the night of the launch event, a current P*2 owner, a Rivian Failure to Launch Edition R1S now pushed to 1H 2023, and a Lightning that should arrive by this August (in production and just waiting on my “built” email).

I think that Kia/Hyundai/Audi/Porsche/etc options here or coming all have their respective merits and benefits.

Variety is the spice of life.

 

[HaulingAss]

IMO Tesla can continue to crush it AND the competition can be getting much fiercer at the same time.

If you deny there are substantially more solid alternatives to Tesla than even a year ago you have blinders on, but with supply chain constraints and rising EV adoption it’s fair to say you can have both a dominant Tesla and plenty of strong competitors.

This coming from someone with a sub 2,500 RN from the night of the launch event, a current P*2 owner, a Rivian Failure to Launch Edition R1S now pushed to 1H 2023, and a Lightning that should arrive by this August (in production and just waiting on my “built” email).

I think that Kia/Hyundai/Audi/Porsche/etc options here or coming all have their respective merits and benefits.

Variety is the spice of life.

You are making a major fundamental error by judging the "solid alternatives" to Tesla by looking at MSRP's and not production costs. Teslas are currently expensive because demand is outstripping even Tesla's greatly expanded production while other manufacturers are selling at a loss (Mach-e) or barely breaking even (Porsche, Audi, VW). This means the true competitive difference between Tesla and the rest is hidden by Tesla's huge profit margins.

For example, how competitive would the rest look if a Model Y was selling for $38K (actual production cost)? Tesla can sell superior cars with more features and higher quality, longer-lasting suspensions and drivetrains for less money than any other manufacturer. All of a sudden, the 'solid alternatives' don't look so solid!

Tesla is improving production efficiency at least as quickly as the best of them, so it's not like any of the rest are likely to catch up to Tesla in terms of being able to offer the car buyer the best value. This means Tesla can continue to expand production and take automotive market share from legacy automakers indefinitely.

Never under-estimate how important value is to the new car buyer. A new car is the second most expensive thing most people ever buy (after a house). In many cases, it's the single most expensive thing, and buyers shop around to see what they can get for their money. This doesn't mean the competition won't be able to sell any cars, but it does mean many or most of them might go bankrupt. Because they are not improving as quickly as Tesla. Which is simply to say that, relative to Tesla, they will not be getting much fiercer, quite the contrary.

This is the same story that was supposed to bankrupt Tesla in 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021. Instead, Tesla has even higher market share and bigger profit margins today than in the past. If the storytellers fool you once, shame on them, if they continue to fool you, shame on YOU!

 

[jerhenderson]

IMO Tesla can continue to crush it AND the competition can be getting much fiercer at the same time.

If you deny there are substantially more solid alternatives to Tesla than even a year ago you have blinders on, but with supply chain constraints and rising EV adoption it’s fair to say you can have both a dominant Tesla and plenty of strong competitors.

This coming from someone with a sub 2,500 RN from the night of the launch event, a current P*2 owner, a Rivian Failure to Launch Edition R1S now pushed to 1H 2023, and a Lightning that should arrive by this August (in production and just waiting on my “built” email).

I think that Kia/Hyundai/Audi/Porsche/etc options here or coming all have their respective merits and benefits.

Variety is the spice of life.

there are more models to compete with for sure, however none have near the volume capacity of Tesla. so are relegated to minor players.

 

[jerhenderson]

Tesla delivered 254,695 electric vehicles in the second quarter of 2022... Q2 2021 had 201 250 so the streak continues!

 

[MilliM]

You are making a major fundamental error by judging the "solid alternatives" to Tesla by looking at MSRP's and not production costs. Teslas are currently expensive because demand is outstripping even Tesla's greatly expanded production while other manufacturers are selling at a loss (Mach-e) or barely breaking even (Porsche, Audi, VW). This means the true competitive difference between Tesla and the rest is hidden by Tesla's huge profit margins.

I don't necessarily disagree, but I think it's disingenuous to think that the legacy manufacturers won't make make manufacturing improvements over time as well, while Tesla will at some point hit diminishing returns on any optimization on their front.

For example, how competitive would the rest look if a Model Y was selling for $38K (actual production cost)? Tesla can sell superior cars with more features and higher quality, longer-lasting suspensions and drivetrains for less money than any other manufacturer. All of a sudden, the 'solid alternatives' don't look so solid!

It's hard for the cult of Tesla to understand, but many people view the Model 3's, and to a lesser extent Y's, as the new Toyota Camry & Honda Accords of our day...at least here in SoCal. Yes they are fast and smooth, but they are also everywhere. For grins & giggles my daughters counted Teslas on the 5 mile drive to school one morning.

Prior to getting my Polestar 2 I'd also done an overnight loaner w/ a M3. It was nice, fast, etc...but for me & my wife too minimalist and, gasp, not enough buttons. I'm sure I'd get used to it, and I will if I ever get the R1S or the Cybertruck, but my wife is one of those people who will likely not enjoy that transition. My point is even if Tesla's build quality improved to the point of being on par with the legacy mfgs (their software is light years ahead, but their quality of the vehicle itself is not there when compared to premium or even near-premium cars), there will always be people that will buy an Audi, Mercedes, Porsche, Volvo or whatever else over it for whatever reason, for the same reasons that not everyone opted to buy the cheapest & most fuel efficient Camry/Accord/Taurus of the day.

This is the same story that was supposed to bankrupt Tela in 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2021. Instead, Tesla has even higher market share and bigger profit margins today than in the past. If the storytellers fool you once, shame on them, if they continue to fool you, shame on YOU!

My whole point coming into this thread was not to dunk on Tesla or say some other car is superior, but every day I'm on the road I see more & more non-Tesla electric cars that reflect very viable options for consumers.

 

[jerhenderson]

I don't necessarily disagree, but I think it's disingenuous to think that the legacy manufacturers won't make make manufacturing improvements over time as well, while Tesla will at some point hit diminishing returns on any optimization on their front.



It's hard for the cult of Tesla to understand, but many people view the Model 3's, and to a lesser extent Y's, as the new Toyota Camry & Honda Accords of our day...at least here in SoCal. Yes they are fast and smooth, but they are also everywhere. For grins & giggles my daughters counted Teslas on the 5 mile drive to school one morning.

Prior to getting my Polestar 2 I'd also done an overnight loaner w/ a M3. It was nice, fast, etc...but for me & my wife too minimalist and, gasp, not enough buttons. I'm sure I'd get used to it, and I will if I ever get the R1S or the Cybertruck, but my wife is one of those people who will likely not enjoy that transition. My point is even if Tesla's build quality improved to the point of being on par with the legacy mfgs (their software is light years ahead, but their quality of the vehicle itself is not there when compared to premium or even near-premium cars), there will always be people that will buy an Audi, Mercedes, Porsche, Volvo or whatever else over it for whatever reason, for the same reasons that not everyone opted to buy the cheapest & most fuel efficient Camry/Accord/Taurus of the day.



My whole point coming into this thread was not to dunk on Tesla or say some other car is superior, but every day I'm on the road I see more & more non-Tesla electric cars that reflect very viable options for consumers.

yes there's more in the road; my point is that no one else can make 1 million EV per year other than Tesla.... look at the extremely low Ford numbers. and the hilariously sad GM numbers. it will take them a decade to catch up, if they have that long.

 

[HaulingAss]

yes there's more in the road; my point is that no one else can make 1 million EV per year other than Tesla.... look at the extremely low Ford numbers. and the hilariously sad GM numbers. it will take them a decade to catch up, if they have that long.

Not only that, the number of Tesla's on the road as a percentage are growing more quickly. This is a direct reflection of their ability to grow EV manufacturing more quickly than ALL other manufacturers combined! And to touch upon @MilliM's point:

The fact that Model 3 and Model Y have become the Toyota Camry and Honda Accord of the EV world was no accident, it was the GOAL! Most people just want a nice car to take them from place to place reliably and comfortably and safely and cost effectively. That is at least 75% of the total market so if Tesla only has 2% of the market before Cybertruck is even released, well, I think you can see where this is going!

 

[Sirfun]

This reminds me of last year when the BIG news was "Ford Mach-E taking market share from Tesla".

In the latest video/conversation with Elon. He discussed the fact that it may be beneficial for Tesla to do some advertising, just so all these players quit spreading FUD. Not to get more sales, but to grease some of these squeaky wheels. I don't see that happening, but Elon was showing some frustration, and how the game is played.

BTW, I've heard Crissa say it before. And I agree, we need all these other companies to throw their hat in the ring. Tesla is producing all the EV's they can. Our world needs way more EV's then Tesla can produce!
Nothing wrong with some competition, that's how we as consumers get better vehicles at lower prices.

 

[Crissa]

yes there's more in the road; my point is that no one else can make 1 million EV per year other than Tesla.... look at the extremely low Ford numbers. and the hilariously sad GM numbers. it will take them a decade to catch up, if they have that long.

Ahh, but they've been doubling their production, year over year. And VW is in the hundreds of thousands.

And technically there are Chinese companies making millions, though the vast majority are Neighborhood EVs as opposed to highway, and their highway standards do not match US ones. (Though the Chinese government is understandably touchy about foreign companies not meeting higher standards!) So they're chasing Tesla, too.

-Crissa

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