Q2 FUD is abounding today

charliemagpie

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If something is better, people are not going to get second best because there are too many around. Like self-sacrifice ?

Some may,,, but you can have that 2%.

The assumption we are going to have no new models.. 3-4 million yearly Model 3 and Y's will be absorbed by the world easily. Another 16 million Teslas' yearly will be other models.

Not much different to Toyota producing 8 million cars yearly. That I doubt is a constraint, if it is, I haven't seen it.

 

ldjessee

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If you have the money to say you only want a car another 100,000 people have instead of a couple of million, because then your car is a little more special... that is your money, you can do that.

Me, I want the features I need and some I want. Model 3 was never going to be a car for me, but it is the car for so many people... and the Model Y expands the number of people it has the features they are after.

But for me, the Tesla I want is a Cybertruck (thus, why I am on this forum).

I also would take a RV made from a Tesla Semi, but I still have not convinced the wife of that one yet... ;)
 

Ogre

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I don't necessarily disagree, but I think it's disingenuous to think that the legacy manufacturers won't make make manufacturing improvements over time as well, while Tesla will at some point hit diminishing returns on any optimization on their front.
This has been the argument for the past 10 years. Yes, legacy auto will improve their processes. But so will Tesla.

It's hard for the cult of Tesla to understand, but many people view the Model 3's, and to a lesser extent Y's, as the new Toyota Camry & Honda Accords of our day...at least here in SoCal. Yes they are fast and smooth, but they are also everywhere. For grins & giggles my daughters counted Teslas on the 5 mile drive to school one morning.
Yes, it is the new Camry/ Accord. Toyota and Honda carved out a huge niche on the backs of these cars.

My whole point coming into this thread was not to dunk on Tesla or say some other car is superior, but every day I'm on the road I see more & more non-Tesla electric cars that reflect very viable options for consumers.
Anyone can get EVs on the road. In order to have a sustainable business, these companies need to make money doing it.

Ford just admitted they make $0/ Mach E sold. GM is almost certainly in a similar boat. Rivian is bleeding cash. The only legacy auto companies which really seem to grasp the size of this change are VW and Kia/ Hyundai.

Not all of legacy auto is going down the toilet bowl. But the industry is changing fast and many of the players are way way behind. It’s very likely many of the existing players do not make it out the other end.

On top of Tesla, these companies have to fend off Chinese owned automakers like Polestar and soon BYD.

Almost all of the legacy automakers have had 5+ years of declining sales. Most have massive debt loads. These are mostly not healthy thriving companies.
 

Ogre

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IMO Tesla can continue to crush it AND the competition can be getting much fiercer at the same time.
Tesla has passed the threshold of scale and profitability. They are no longer a tiny company which can be squashed like a bug. I say that, because once you remove this constraint and competitors cannot muscle you out of the market, you survive and thrive based on merit.

Tesla will thrive or fail on their own merit regardless of what competitors do.

Legacy auto likewise.

It’s important to remember that not a lot of buggy makers survived the transition to making automobiles.
 

charliemagpie

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With so much anti Tesla stuff over the years, it has been normal for those who are informed to try and ignore.

It is getting easier, as slowly, one by one , those anti's have less and less to say.

With fingers crossed, this last quarter will be the last real opportunity to continue the FUD... should be smooth sailing from Sept onwards. Certainly will be new FUD, but driven by the most fanatical. The attacks may be more serious nature. I can understand the need for a lawyers dept going forward.

As far as the share price goes... recession or not, the profits and PE ratio will be driving.
 


HaulingAss

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BTW, I've heard Crissa say it before. And I agree, we need all these other companies to throw their hat in the ring. Tesla is producing all the EV's they can. Our world needs way more EV's then Tesla can produce!
Our world needs far more EV's than all the manufacturers combined can produce! And that is a sad statement about legacy auto! We can hope they step up their game but it's highly likely that Tesla makes more than half of the EV's for N. America for many years to come, more years than it's possible to forecast.

It matters less how many companies contribute substantial volume, and more how many EV's are actually made available and at price points that ensure their purchase, regardless of manufacturer. Low volume sales don't move the needle much. If one company makes a large enough number of compelling EV's, and at a low enough price to ensure they are all purchased, there may not be a lot of room for those who couldn't keep up with the demand or sell their products cheaply enough to compete. That's the beauty of capitalism - the work goes to those who produce what people want at the price they want to pay.

Tesla is not going to bankrupt every single potential competitor, so consumers don't need to worry that there will be no competitors, it's just that the products offering the best value will sell in the highest numbers.

What we need is so many EV's that the price has to come down to prices that are compelling to all motorists. What we don't need is some wierd form of goverment subsidized capitalism in which the weakest players get the most government subsidies.
 
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TyPope

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This reminds me of last year when the BIG news was "Ford Mach-E taking market share from Tesla".

In the latest video/conversation with Elon. He discussed the fact that it may be beneficial for Tesla to do some advertising, just so all these players quit spreading FUD. Not to get more sales, but to grease some of these squeaky wheels. I don't see that happening, but Elon was showing some frustration, and how the game is played.

BTW, I've heard Crissa say it before. And I agree, we need all these other companies to throw their hat in the ring. Tesla is producing all the EV's they can. Our world needs way more EV's then Tesla can produce!
Nothing wrong with some competition, that's how we as consumers get better vehicles at lower prices.
Other manufacturers will have to throw their hats in the ring. Didn't the EU just put into effect a requirement that all manufacturers cut emissions by 50% by the year 2030 and by 100% in 2035? They didn't include motorcycles but it's thought they'll include them as well. If manufacturers want to keep selling in Europe, they'll have to find a way to make EVs there profitable.

 

 
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