Quarterly report audio to text info roadmap

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This is only partial audio to text output from a software conversion source, from the quarterly report on January 26. (Maybe some typo's or grammar issues)

But before we jump into q&a, Elon has some opening remarks, Elon? Thanks, Martin.



So, just to recap, 2021 was a breakthrough year for Tesla and for electric vehicles in general. And while we battled and everyone did with supply chain challenges through the year, we managed to grow our volumes by nearly 90% last year. This level of growth didn't happen by coincidence, it was a result of ingenuity and hard work across multiple teams throughout the company.



Additionally, we reached the highest operating margin in the industry. In the last while your report quarter had over 14% Gap operating margin.



Lastly, thanks to a five and a half million, five and a half billion dollars of million small finger by the mouth $5 billion of GAP net net income in 2021.



Our accumulated profitability since the inception of the company became positive, which I think makes us a real company at this point. This is a critical milestone for the company.



After an exceptional year we shift our focus to the theater system villain so we've began production at both Texas and Berlin. We started that last quarter. But that's not the most important thing. We focus more on when we get to volume production, and when can we deliver cars to customers?



But I think it is worth noting that way. And as the internet has observed, we've we've been making quite a few cars in Texas and Berlin.



We're building the model wise with the structural battery pack and the 4680 cells and we will start delivering after final certification vehicle which should be fairly soon. vast expansion will continue maximizing output of each factory and building new factories new locations in the future.



Although we're not ready to announce any new locations on this call, but but we will through 2020 to look at new locations and probably be able to announce the locations towards the end of this era expect in 2022 supply chain will continue to be the fundamental emitter of output across all the factories. So the the chip shortage well, better than last year is still still an issue.



And yeah, so that's there are there are multiple supply chain challenges. And last year was difficult to predict and hopefully this year will be smooth sailing, but you know what to do for an encore to 2021 2020 nonetheless, we do expect some significant growth in 2020 to 2021.



You know, comfortably above 50% growth in 2022 full self driving so over time we think full self driving will become the most important source of profitability for Tesla.





It's actually if you run the numbers on Robo taxis, it's kind of nutty. The flow is it's not good from a financial standpoint. I think we're confident this point that it will be achieved. And my personal guess is that we will achieve full self driving this year.



With data safety level significantly greater than third person so that way, you know the cars in the fleet essentially becoming self driving. I a software update. I think might end up being the biggest increase in asset value of any asset class in history. Efficiency. It will It will also have a profound impact on improving safety and on accelerating the world towards sustainable energy through vastly better asset utilization.



So, on the product roadmap front, there's quite a lot to talk about. I'm not gonna go through every sort of, that we're working on because I think a lot of them deserve product launches of their own, as opposed to a few minutes on an earnings call. So I'll talk kind of at a high level. So mostly at a high level.



The fundamental focus Tesla this year is scaling output. So both last year and this year we were to introduce new vehicles.

Our total vehicle output would decrease. This is a very important point that I think people do not Largo do not understand. The last year we spent a lot of engineering and management resources, solving supply chain issues, rewriting code changing our chips, reducing the number of chips we need. That was chip chip drama Central. And not the that was not the only supply chain issue.



So there's just hundreds of things. And as a result, we were able to grow this 90% While we almost every other manufacturer contracted last year, so that that's a good result.



But if we had introduced say a new car last year, we would a total vehicle output was would have been the same because of the constraints, the chips constraints particularly. So if we'd actually introduce an additional product that would then require a bunch of attention and resources on that increased complexity of the additional product resulting in fewer vehicles actually being delivered.



The same is true of this year. So we will not be introducing new vehicle models this year would not make any sense because we will still be part constrained. We will have to do a lot of engineering, tooling what not to create those vehicles as the cybertruck Semi roadster, optimists and I'd be ready to bring those to production hopefully next year.




That is most likely. It is dependent on are we able to produce more cars or fewer cars in terms of priority of products I think the actually the most important development we're doing this year is is actually the optimist humanoid robot this I think has the potential to be significant than critical business over time.



If you think about the economy it is the foundation the economy is labor. capital equipment is distilled. labor.

So what happens if you don't actually have a labor shortage? Not sure what kind of an economy even means at that point. It's what optimist is about. So very important.



Today I want to talk about the 4680 program. Always good right the right time, Chuck. Yeah, sure. So throughout 2021 We focused on growing sell supply alongside our in house 4680 effort. products provide us flexibility and insurance as we attempt to grow as fast as possible. As we sit today.



Cells from suppliers is actually sort of exceeds our other factory limiting constraints. That you mentioned in 2022 Or just say differently. 4680 sales are not a constraint to our 2022 Volume plans based on the information we have. But we are making meaningful progress of the ram curve and Kato we're building 4680 structural packs every day, which are being assembled into vehicles in Texas. I was driving one yesterday and the day before and we believe our first 4680 vehicles will be delivered this quarter.



Our focus on the sell the pack and vehicles here is driving yield quality and cost to ensure we are ready for larger volumes this year as we ramp up next year and 4680 impact tool installations here at kick Austin are progressing well with some areas producing first parts and the Internet has also noticed that yeah, I was touring the factory, the cell factory here.



I'm super pumped it's it's like a really exciting accomplishment for us to bring everything into one awesome factory here in Texas salutely

And just to repeat crews point we are we are still we still expect to be part or primarily chip limited this year. So that they thing that's that's actually the driver. Yeah, and that limitation should be next year. And then probably we transition into a cell limitation battery size you know, total gigawatt hours of cell limitation, which is when the 4680 will become very important. The grid Thank

you very much

 

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After an exceptional year we shift our focus to the theater system villain so we've began production at both Texas and Berlin. We started that last quarter. But that's not the most important thing.
That theater system villain has been a HUGE setback to Tesla's efforts to open Berlin and Austin. I hope they catch him soon.
 

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This is only partial audio to text output from a software conversion source, from the quarterly report on January 26. (Maybe some typo's or grammar issues)

But before we jump into q&a, Elon has some opening remarks, Elon? Thanks, Martin.



So, just to recap, 2021 was a breakthrough year for Tesla and for electric vehicles in general. And while we battled and everyone did with supply chain challenges through the year, we managed to grow our volumes by nearly 90% last year. This level of growth didn't happen by coincidence, it was a result of ingenuity and hard work across multiple teams throughout the company.



Additionally, we reached the highest operating margin in the industry. In the last while your report quarter had over 14% Gap operating margin.



Lastly, thanks to a five and a half million, five and a half billion dollars of million small finger by the mouth $5 billion of GAP net net income in 2021.



Our accumulated profitability since the inception of the company became positive, which I think makes us a real company at this point. This is a critical milestone for the company.



After an exceptional year we shift our focus to the theater system villain so we've began production at both Texas and Berlin. We started that last quarter. But that's not the most important thing. We focus more on when we get to volume production, and when can we deliver cars to customers?



But I think it is worth noting that way. And as the internet has observed, we've we've been making quite a few cars in Texas and Berlin.



We're building the model wise with the structural battery pack and the 4680 cells and we will start delivering after final certification vehicle which should be fairly soon. vast expansion will continue maximizing output of each factory and building new factories new locations in the future.



Although we're not ready to announce any new locations on this call, but but we will through 2020 to look at new locations and probably be able to announce the locations towards the end of this era expect in 2022 supply chain will continue to be the fundamental emitter of output across all the factories. So the the chip shortage well, better than last year is still still an issue.



And yeah, so that's there are there are multiple supply chain challenges. And last year was difficult to predict and hopefully this year will be smooth sailing, but you know what to do for an encore to 2021 2020 nonetheless, we do expect some significant growth in 2020 to 2021.



You know, comfortably above 50% growth in 2022 full self driving so over time we think full self driving will become the most important source of profitability for Tesla.





It's actually if you run the numbers on Robo taxis, it's kind of nutty. The flow is it's not good from a financial standpoint. I think we're confident this point that it will be achieved. And my personal guess is that we will achieve full self driving this year.



With data safety level significantly greater than third person so that way, you know the cars in the fleet essentially becoming self driving. I a software update. I think might end up being the biggest increase in asset value of any asset class in history. Efficiency. It will It will also have a profound impact on improving safety and on accelerating the world towards sustainable energy through vastly better asset utilization.



So, on the product roadmap front, there's quite a lot to talk about. I'm not gonna go through every sort of, that we're working on because I think a lot of them deserve product launches of their own, as opposed to a few minutes on an earnings call. So I'll talk kind of at a high level. So mostly at a high level.



The fundamental focus Tesla this year is scaling output. So both last year and this year we were to introduce new vehicles.

Our total vehicle output would decrease. This is a very important point that I think people do not Largo do not understand. The last year we spent a lot of engineering and management resources, solving supply chain issues, rewriting code changing our chips, reducing the number of chips we need. That was chip chip drama Central. And not the that was not the only supply chain issue.



So there's just hundreds of things. And as a result, we were able to grow this 90% While we almost every other manufacturer contracted last year, so that that's a good result.



But if we had introduced say a new car last year, we would a total vehicle output was would have been the same because of the constraints, the chips constraints particularly. So if we'd actually introduce an additional product that would then require a bunch of attention and resources on that increased complexity of the additional product resulting in fewer vehicles actually being delivered.



The same is true of this year. So we will not be introducing new vehicle models this year would not make any sense because we will still be part constrained. We will have to do a lot of engineering, tooling what not to create those vehicles as the cybertruck Semi roadster, optimists and I'd be ready to bring those to production hopefully next year.




That is most likely. It is dependent on are we able to produce more cars or fewer cars in terms of priority of products I think the actually the most important development we're doing this year is is actually the optimist humanoid robot this I think has the potential to be significant than critical business over time.



If you think about the economy it is the foundation the economy is labor. capital equipment is distilled. labor.

So what happens if you don't actually have a labor shortage? Not sure what kind of an economy even means at that point. It's what optimist is about. So very important.



Today I want to talk about the 4680 program. Always good right the right time, Chuck. Yeah, sure. So throughout 2021 We focused on growing sell supply alongside our in house 4680 effort. products provide us flexibility and insurance as we attempt to grow as fast as possible. As we sit today.



Cells from suppliers is actually sort of exceeds our other factory limiting constraints. That you mentioned in 2022 Or just say differently. 4680 sales are not a constraint to our 2022 Volume plans based on the information we have. But we are making meaningful progress of the ram curve and Kato we're building 4680 structural packs every day, which are being assembled into vehicles in Texas. I was driving one yesterday and the day before and we believe our first 4680 vehicles will be delivered this quarter.



Our focus on the sell the pack and vehicles here is driving yield quality and cost to ensure we are ready for larger volumes this year as we ramp up next year and 4680 impact tool installations here at kick Austin are progressing well with some areas producing first parts and the Internet has also noticed that yeah, I was touring the factory, the cell factory here.



I'm super pumped it's it's like a really exciting accomplishment for us to bring everything into one awesome factory here in Texas salutely

And just to repeat crews point we are we are still we still expect to be part or primarily chip limited this year. So that they thing that's that's actually the driver. Yeah, and that limitation should be next year. And then probably we transition into a cell limitation battery size you know, total gigawatt hours of cell limitation, which is when the 4680 will become very important. The grid Thank

you very much
A Youtube interpretation of Elon’s earning call adds more context that speech-to-text doesn’t… for those interested.
tl:dr
Cybertruck delay isn’t surprising. The alpha prototype was the shocker. Two years time and the amount of progress shown on the alpha are three areas:
IIHS - Safety​
Exo - Possible two piece construction​
Hitch - Funky receiver shown​
It made no sense. Expected Elon’s enthusiasm had advanced deeper than this working prototype.

When the earning call mentioned Cybertruck delay and next $25k car stopped, it stopped me too. Then Elon’s Optimus enthusiasm backfilled that vacuum sitting my ass down. WTF - a pivot to Bots in Tesla future?

Elon didn’t just disrupt ICE. Tesla BEV cars disrupted the car. Elon got it that the electric automobile is impractical priced as a luxury good. No matter how the numbers add up with or without FSD few are those able to continue in car ownership. The car is unsustainable. Segue Tesla Optimus and Elon’s take that robots will replace humans in far larger numbers than cars.

Tesla car roadmap EOL’s 20-30 yr. Cybertruck? Its 1m units+. Roadster is a collectible and not even produced yet. Cars 1m miles max and EOL. For Tesla the future is not about Gigafactories and new cars. Cars are the last vestige of a Golden Age that simply isn’t a sustainable business case. Elon has already pivoted off autos onto Optimus, the human robot AGI promise. Cybertruck shows it and $25k halted development proves that Tesla building either won’t solve its money problem.

Edit: pics
AB801419-CDD4-4A41-BCEB-37C3A8F83C55.jpeg
2E6ED520-1C86-41E5-9211-1B88E628626A.jpeg
C65AA93C-A291-4913-A302-25D29570ACB5.jpeg
 


Crissa

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...and next $25k car stopped...
Stopped? It was never presented as an ongoing project. How do you 'stop' something that never started?

It was merely listed as a goal after their current slate of projects have come to fruition - specifically the battery factories.

None of which have completed yet.

-Crissa
 

rr6013

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Stopped? It was never presented as an ongoing project. How do you 'stop' something that never started?

It was merely listed as a goal after their current slate of projects have come to fruition - specifically the battery factories.

None of which have completed yet.

-Crissa
Yeah…next $25k car stopped…dead in its tracks! Here’s why that $25k car isn’t coming.

 

Crissa

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Yeah…next $25k car stopped…dead in its tracks! Here’s why that $25k car isn’t coming.
So you're quoting a site that doesn't think the Cybertruck is coming, for evidence that an aspirational product which has never been worked on or announced or described has been stopped?

Exactly the same amount of work in 2022 is happening on the 25k car that happened in 2020. It's not stopped. It's a goal they have to build a bunch of things first. Just like they said in 2020.

-Crissa
 

rr6013

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So you're quoting a site that doesn't think the Cybertruck is coming, for evidence that an aspirational product which has never been worked on or announced or described has been stopped?

Exactly the same amount of work in 2022 is happening on the 25k car that happened in 2020. It's not stopped. It's a goal they have to build a bunch of things first. Just like they said in 2020.

-Crissa
Substantially that supports and demonstrates why point that $25k car is stopped - dead in its tracks.

Tesla BE is $36k+ for any BEV product produced. Tesla would have to lop ⅓ expenses off its COGS to BE @ $25k. OR TSLA must subsidize ~40% RPP to maintain 30% profit funding a $25k BEV use case.

Alternatively, Tesla could shrink $25k car to fit. It would look like a SXS.
875962AF-FE48-468A-B13C-B0F1E669F169.jpeg


That’s a realistic viable MVP for Tesla which I think there exists a market. Where that could lead? Could Tesla lead it? It looks like legacy ICE are on it already, as Lexus scratches the SXS-as-car vibe.

Elon was right to envision TSLA today for 20 yrs hence not being dependent upon car company revenue.
 

Crissa

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Substantially that supports and demonstrates why point that $25k car is stopped - dead in its tracks.
That's highly misleading.

Goals aren't 'stopped'. They're goals. Tesla has never worked on a specific $25K project, and nothing has changed: They need to figure out how to produce enough batteries to do it.

It's an if/then statement. They're still working on the if part. Just like they always have been.

'Stopped' implied it was 'Started'.

-Crissa
 


rr6013

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That's highly misleading.

Goals aren't 'stopped'. They're goals. Tesla has never worked on a specific $25K project, and nothing has changed: They need to figure out how to produce enough batteries to do it.

It's an if/then statement. They're still working on the if part. Just like they always have been.

'Stopped' implied it was 'Started'.

-Crissa
Tesla is not doing any work on a $25k car. Tesla is not even “still working on the ‘if’ part. There is no work being done - no if/and/or:: then applied to any vehicle below $36k USD.

Work started:
“We're confident that long-term we can design and manufacture a compelling $25,000 electric vehicle," Musk said. It's expected to arrive in the next three years, and Musk even said the low-cost EV will boast full self-driving. Hmm. Of course, it's also important to note that Musk himself hinted at a $25,000 Tesla EV coming in three years... back in 2018.”

Is it your assessment that Elon Musk just pulled the concept, the price and the timeline out of his ass back in 2018?
 

Crissa

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Tesla is not doing any work on a $25k car. Tesla is not even “still working on the ‘if’ part. There is no work being done - no if/and/or:: then applied to any vehicle below $36k USD.

Work started:
“We're confident that long-term we can design and manufacture a compelling $25,000 electric vehicle," Musk said. It's expected to arrive in the next three years, and Musk even said the low-cost EV will boast full self-driving. Hmm. Of course, it's also important to note that Musk himself hinted at a $25,000 Tesla EV coming in three years... back in 2018.”

Is it your assessment that Elon Musk just pulled the concept, the price and the timeline out of his ass back in 2018?
Literally the quote doesn't say work has started. Or that the work they're doing stopped.

Lots of spin going on there taking phrases out of context.

-Crissa
 

RVAC

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It is however concerning they won't start working on it this year. That means that a new high volume vehicle won't come before 2025 (at best). Hard to see how they can hit the expected 2024 numbers unless FSD is solved by end of 2023.
 

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Tesla is not doing any work on a $25k car. Tesla is not even “still working on the ‘if’ part. There is no work being done - no if/and/or:: then applied to any vehicle below $36k USD.

Work started:
“We're confident that long-term we can design and manufacture a compelling $25,000 electric vehicle," Musk said. It's expected to arrive in the next three years, and Musk even said the low-cost EV will boast full self-driving. Hmm. Of course, it's also important to note that Musk himself hinted at a $25,000 Tesla EV coming in three years... back in 2018.”

Is it your assessment that Elon Musk just pulled the concept, the price and the timeline out of his ass back in 2018?
Much of the work and development of a possible $25k car is the new batteries, the new facilities to build capacity in the production line. I do not expect instant gratification out of any car company. The times I have been left hanging for years by other car companies far exceeds Tesla. Think back to the Mazda Miata. Promised at $16k. For yeas the mark up was about $ 10-15k.
 

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The $25,000 car isn't in production because for the time being, it's not a value add product.

It's just as idiotic to say Tesla can’t make money on a $25,000 as it is saying EV's can't make money.

Tesla is at 100% capacity today, and right through 2023. Why would it forego 30% profit on $60,000, for 30% profit on $25,000 ?.


Once Tesla is in surplus time and resources, it will allocate that to other products as the next growth phase.

Why is that so hard to understand by the average stupid journalist ?

 

 
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