Rate of production?

[PointHope]

Where can we find ot how many of these babies are being popped out every day?

Shanghai is popping out a model Y roughly every 40 to 50 seconds.

Is Tesla being cagey about this info?

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[mark555055c]

Where can we find ot how many of these babies are being popped out every day?

Shanghai is popping out a model Y roughly every 40 to 50 seconds.

Is Tesla being cagey about this info?

It's not known yet.

In drone videos, roughly 20-30 are seen at a time and they are seen being loaded on trucks and being moved off site. Given the drone pilots are there maybe an hour or so, we have to assume that they are not capturing every unit that is produced that day.

So, best guess, 50-100 per day currently.

 

[Coltpete]

There is an entire VIN tracking thread dedicated to this. Looks like it's 40-60 per day depending on the day and whether they manufacture that day.

 

[Darth abbott]

Yeah they're definitely seems to be a lot of production pauses. If you watch the drone flights, you get a better sense of how many are coming and going a day. But it is really hard to put a number on it as stated above their coming and going pretty quick. Production does seem to be very spotty though. I would say there's been multiple pauses in production, in my opinion. Production did seem to just uptick a little to me. From what I've seen I think 50 is a little optimistic but maybe between there and 100. But the VINs show that there is more than what it looks like are being produced off the drone flights alone.

 

[hridge2020]

Where can we find ot how many of these babies are being popped out every day?

Shanghai is popping out a model Y roughly every 40 to 50 seconds.

Is Tesla being cagey about this info?

From this person's delivery from January 26, 2024 you tube posting. In over 1000 delivered and counting.

 

[Skaught]

So if you’re well over 1 million on the order list, how many years do you think that’s gonna take?

 

[Raxar]

From this person's delivery from January 26, 2024 you tube posting. In over 1000 delivered and counting.

I am in the 9** below him and still not delivered yet.

 

[mark555055c]

So if you’re well over 1 million on the order list, how many years do you think that’s gonna take?

Well, it took 3.5 years(2019-2022) to produce 1 million vehicles at Giga Shanghai. So being optimistic, and minus covid, probably safe to assume 2.5 years to 1 million CTs. So... June 2026 for one million CTs produced, then June 2027 for 1.5 million produced.

It's certainly going to be interesting to see how it goes.

 

[Roy2001]

Where can we find ot how many of these babies are being popped out every day?

Shanghai is popping out a model Y roughly every 40 to 50 seconds.

Is Tesla being cagey about this info?

It would NEVER reach that rate. Ford can only sell the whole F series for 700k-800k, quite a bit shy of one million.

I guess current production rate is quite low, maybe 15k - 20k a year. It would reach 250k maybe in 26-27.

 

[MeadowShade]

I am in the 9** below him and still not delivered yet.

But where are you? CA and TX are getting first ones. I am in VA and was about 100k in line if the formula was right. I got my invite about 10 days ago and thought about it for a day, now they are saying Feb-April. I am betting April. No VIN yet. I was about 10 days behind people that were 40,000th in line using the same formula.
But in front of all of us are multiple order gold diggers that will NOT agree to the Ferrari feature of NO sale for a couple of years. Also, people that have died in the last 5 years (a long time to wait) and some that I know personally that are happy with their Ford or even Rivian, that just don't want to spend that much with the uncertainty of selling what they have.
If I had paid over 100k for either, it would take a LOT to get me to take that big a hit right now and then pay above sticker for a CT.
So, my thinking is the ramp is increasing, batteries do NOT seem to be an issue and they are running through the reservations pretty fast but ONLY willing to make fully loaded CT's for now to keep the margins and cash flowing. If they went through 40,000 orders in those ten days mentioned above and now it seems that 2024 roster for expected builds is nearly full, there will be a LOT of Foundation CT's built but probably 100k total for 2024 at the absolute max. 50 per day is only 13,000 per year. So, 100k would be super droid work. 100k would be 1,000 per day. That is a long ways off 3-4 months at the very best. Ford did 70,000 I think its first full year so beating that would have to be a real goal...

 

[HitchHiker71]

This video probably contains the best guesses at CT production. Below is a recent screenshot of someone "in the know" on CT production to date. A total of 997 VIN activations (this doesn't mean this is how many have been built). A total of 600-700 actually built to date. If anyone thinks you're going to see a large ramp of CT production in 2024 - be prepared to live with disappointment IMHO. As Musk and many others have repeatedly said, CT production ramp has a LOT of challenges compared to any other mass produced vehicle in Tesla's history. Musk said ramp would be at least 12-18 months, and given Musk is an eternal optimist - that's more likely 18-24 months.

 

[Mini2nut]

Yes, Mr. Musk is extremely optimistic regarding timelines. How many years has he been promising FSD that actually works?

I still get a kick out of this one…

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