RBC analyst predicts 20% reservation conversion rate

Jhodgesatmb

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For Cybertruck reservation holders. Calls CT a halo car used to drive up 3 and Y sales.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/tesla-stock-slides-after-cybertruck-launch-154752957.html
I read the article and I don’t think that the conversion will be that low. Tesla ‘will’ take a hit in conversions. Maybe add 10 points to the ‘normal’ conversion rate for big ticket items. Even if it were 50% conversion (a 20-point hit) I would likely not see my CT in 2024.
 

ninja6r

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I read the article and I don’t think that the conversion will be that low. Tesla ‘will’ take a hit in conversions. Maybe add 10 points to the ‘normal’ conversion rate for big ticket items. Even if it were 50% conversion (a 20-point hit) I would likely not see my CT in 2024.
I disagree. I think that's optimistic. It's price and it's range are inline with it's competitors, none of whom are selling 250k+ trucks a year. This is a Halo product for now. If you want mainstream, high production, you need costs to drop 40%. I just hope that's still their plan.
 

cvalue13

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I’ll leave this here


Seems like a lot of people have the script flipped

Saying “what was Elon thinking, pricing it this high means many people can’t buy”

When they should be saying, “at this price many people can’t buy, is what Elon was thinking”


What’s more likely here? That Tesla doesn’t understand market pricing 101, or that there won’t be many produced over next two years, so they’re charging a market price that reflects constrained supply - while maximizing income that offsets the 1/2 billion that will hit the company’s balance sheet when the truck goes into production?


The frustration is all deserved, given Tesla’s real snaffu - the content of the 2019 presentation.

But no, at these prices, Tesla doesn’t expect to sell large amounts of these trucks next year. Which works for them, because they don’t expect to be able to build large amounts of these trucks next year. That’s what this pricing should tell us. (Doubly so for the tri-motors.)



What we've got here is failure to communicate.

Some members, you just can't reach.

So you get what we had here yesterday -- which is the way Tesla wants it.

Well, Tesla gets it.

And I don't like it anymore than you men.

1701495933510.jpeg
 

cyberboi

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I’ll leave this here
Agree except that the 2019 presentation wasn't a SNAFU. Specifying those lower prices kept people from buying other EV trucks, resulted in a ton of press coverage, and created a large pre-order list. This will be a case study at Harvard Business School.
 


Keeney

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Agree except that the 2019 presentation wasn't a SNAFU. Specifying those lower prices kept people from buying other EV trucks, resulted in a ton of press coverage, and created a large pre-order list. This will be a case study at Harvard Business School.
Should be a case study at the FTC inunfair business practices.
 

cvalue13

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Agree except that the 2019 presentation wasn't a SNAFU. Specifying those lower prices kept people from buying other EV trucks, resulted in a ton of press coverage, and created a large pre-order list. This will be a case study at Harvard Business School.
well, I didn’t take any position on whether it was unintentional or an intentional maneuver. If it was the latter, then whether or not it is a ‘snafu’ requires weighing the net effects of any upsides over the past 4 years (like those you posit) against any downsides of the next few years (like the ones being signaled here by some).

If it’s a case study at HBS, I’d enjoy picking it apart.

In 2019, I don’t think Tesla expected any or any real competition in the BEV truck space, etc., that would result in the sort of motivations you prescribe.

Too often people believe these corporations have grand plans and expert execution. As opposed to the more frequent reality: they’re discombobulated sh*t shows, and sometimes they happen to thread a needle, while other times the facts turn out such a way that people can overlay a revisionist history to spin how the sh*t show was always the plan.

Tesla, as much or more than many other companies, is not the Sun Tzu their devotees want to make them out to be. They have a YOLO attitude, one of the richest men in the world leveraging his power in its favor, and a worthwhile vision that causes them to shoulder through the brush, favorable conditions, and a bit of correctly timed luck. That much and that little is the practical reality of how good companies come to be.

For every Tesla there are a thousand equally good companies you’ve never heard of who simply didn’t thread the needle and their balance sheet went to zero at the wrong place and time.
 

MEDICALJMP

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I disagree. I think that's optimistic. It's price and it's range are inline with it's competitors, none of whom are selling 250k+ trucks a year. This is a Halo product for now. If you want mainstream, high production, you need costs to drop 40%. I just hope that's still their plan.
Cybertruck was supposed to wipe the Collective butts of the competition in price and performance, not be inline with them. Tesla used to underpromise and over deliver. Times changed. Welcome to the world of Big Auto.
 

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The main miss is battery projection. Elon had high hopes that after the dry process was well executed, 4680 cells would lift and support all trims of MY M3. Also, the forecast on MY and M3 was a huge miss as well, otherwise, we would have CT delivered way sooner. When everyone in the company is hyper about unrealized gain, voices with rationale will not be well received, it is always true, it is just human nature.
 

Coolbreeze704

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The main miss is battery projection. Elon had high hopes that after the dry process was well executed, 4680 cells would lift and support all trims of MY M3. Also, the forecast on MY and M3 was a huge miss as well, otherwise, we would have CT delivered way sooner. When everyone in the company is hyper about unrealized gain, voices with rationale will not be well received, it is always true, it is just human nature.
I think more semi's would be on the road also
 


cyberboi

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well, I didn’t take any position on whether it was unintentional or an intentional maneuver. If it was the latter, then whether or not it is a ‘snafu’ requires weighing the net effects of any upsides over the past 4 years (like those you posit) against any downsides of the next few years (like the ones being signaled here by some).

If it’s a case study at HBS, I’d enjoy picking it apart.

In 2019, I don’t think Tesla expected any or any real competition in the BEV truck space, etc., that would result in the sort of motivations you prescribe.

Too often people believe these corporations have grand plans and expert execution. As opposed to the more frequent reality: they’re discombobulated sh*t shows, and sometimes they happen to thread a needle, while other times the facts turn out such a way that people can overlay a revisionist history to spin how the sh*t show was always the plan.

Tesla, as much or more than many other companies, is not the Sun Tzu their devotees want to make them out to be. They have a YOLO attitude, one of the richest men in the world leveraging his power in its favor, and a worthwhile vision that causes them to shoulder through the brush, favorable conditions, and a bit of correctly timed luck. That much and that little is the practical reality of how good companies come to be.

For every Tesla there are a thousand equally good companies you’ve never heard of who simply didn’t thread the needle and their balance sheet went to zero at the wrong place and time.
I’ve worked at one of the equally good companies and it never took off because the money just wasn’t there and the timing was off, so I know what you mean on that front.
 

Coolbreeze704

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Coolbreeze704

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If you have well over a million customers on your waiting list, yes, it will be maximum $ for awhile without looking absurd. Hence, the resale agreement, even though Tesla could get $279k current, they don't want you to.
Sponsored

 
 




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