RBC analyst predicts 20% reservation conversion rate

azjohn

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The main miss is battery projection. Elon had high hopes that after the dry process was well executed, 4680 cells would lift and support all trims of MY M3. Also, the forecast on MY and M3 was a huge miss as well, otherwise, we would have CT delivered way sooner. When everyone in the company is hyper about unrealized gain, voices with rationale will not be well received, it is always true, it is just human nature.
Agree with your comment about battery production. Elon was expecting much better energy density with the 2170 they ended up being worse. Getting the cell energy up to 400 would be great that will probably need a different chemistry
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I disagree. I think that's optimistic. It's price and it's range are inline with it's competitors, none of whom are selling 250k+ trucks a year. This is a Halo product for now. If you want mainstream, high production, you need costs to drop 40%. I just hope that's still their plan.
For what you get, the ideal price I think is in the 60-70k range after rebate..this vehicle will never be in the 50s for what was shown as a AWD model...IMO.
 

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In the first 1 million or so reservations, approximately 60 to 80% were duel and tri motor.

Now with the increased price and reduced mileage of the tri motor, IMO the conversion rate will probably 20-30% and of those maybe 10% (3% of original orders= 30,000) will be tri motor and the bulk of what is left will be duel and single motor versions. So if they sell 200,000 a year, 20,000 will be tri, 80,000 will be duel and 100,000 will be single motor.

This is just a guess on my part.
 


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Agree with your comment about battery production. Elon was expecting much better energy density with the 2170 they ended up being worse. Getting the cell energy up to 400 would be great that will probably need a different chemistry
Some of us, as early adpoters of cyber cell, pave the way to 4680 success. All glory to us guinea pigs. At least some chemical adjustment is expected in a year or two.
 

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I remember buying a Tesla MY in 2022 with wait times longer than 3 months. I could get a performance model in half as much time if not faster than a long range due to prices being higher on the performance ed.

Keeping the above in-mind, I think conversion rate is definitely a factor, but I think there is an additional overlooked force at play here which is wait time multiplied by tri-motor budget. Consider the following 3 scenarios all of which assume a desire to buy the CT:

A) You're severly money constrained or want the cheapest edition of CT; you have until 2025 to save up for rwd. Reservation # is not as much a factor because dual and tri are being delivered first in 2024.

B) You're somewhat money constrained and want the truck as fast as possible or you want the beast still but beast is outside of your budget. You're getting awd/dual (aka long range) but not as fast as a reservation holders for tri(performance). See scenario C.

C) You have the budget and interest in either 1) the fastest model that can be delivered or 2)tri exclusively and are eager to obtain one as fast as possible. This someone (particularly the 4 year reservationist) will want to choose tri-motor so they can get theirs as fast as possible. Whereas single and dual are looking at 20k+ increases from reveal day( at least with the ev tax credit), tri has a 30k increase for those wanting to speed up delivery and jump over dual motor reservationists. Smart.
 

jerhenderson

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Cybertruck was supposed to wipe the Collective butts of the competition in price and performance, not be inline with them. Tesla used to underpromise and over deliver. Times changed. Welcome to the world of Big Auto.
it's comparable in price and better in technology. good enough for me.
 


jerhenderson

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The main miss is battery projection. Elon had high hopes that after the dry process was well executed, 4680 cells would lift and support all trims of MY M3. Also, the forecast on MY and M3 was a huge miss as well, otherwise, we would have CT delivered way sooner. When everyone in the company is hyper about unrealized gain, voices with rationale will not be well received, it is always true, it is just human nature.
we would have had the CT delivered way sooner? like, before the gigapresses were delivered you mean?
 

Jager

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...

For every Tesla there are a thousand equally good companies you’ve never heard of who simply didn’t thread the needle and their balance sheet went to zero at the wrong place and time.
Amen. And people forget how it nearly was for Tesla, as well.

I was one of those people who was always fascinated by Tesla's - their looks and their technology and their performance. But on the day the Cybertruck was announced I was still wedded to my by-then-years-old belief that they would go bankrupt before they cleared the profitability threshold.

It was a near run thing.
 

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Some of us, as early adpoters of cyber cell, pave the way to 4680 success. All glory to us guinea pigs. At least some chemical adjustment is expected in a year or two.
In the computer industry, we referred to the early adopters of a less than proven technology as being on the Bleeding Edge or the Leading Ledge... take you pick. ;)
 

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In the computer industry, we referred to the early adopters of a less than proven technology as being on the Bleeding Edge or the Leading Ledge... take you pick. ;)
Depending on which side you are on, I guess experience should be different. CT is a great product, glad I can be a part of it.
 

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we would have had the CT delivered way sooner? like, before the gigapresses were delivered you mean?
Sure. Gigapress could be delivered sooner. How to use Gigapress could be decided sooner etc.
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