REAL reservation numbers are...?

[cyberwulf]

This lifted from Motortrend article, if its true, then IF current production capacity is 125k per year AND Tesla will "soon sell out what it can build in 2024” my math suggests there are not 1 million reservations or only 1 in 8 are converting to orders

The Texas plant currently has the capacity to make 125,000 trucks a year. "I see us ultimately delivering a quarter million trucks a year," Musk said.

Musk has previously said Tesla has 1 million reservations.

Executives declined to say how many orders there are today but said the conversion rate of reservations to orders is encouraging and if it continues,

Tesla will soon sell out all it can build in 2024—whatever that number is.

https://www.motortrend.com/news/affordable-25000-tesla-model-back-on/ (half way down the article)

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[CyberMoose]

Capacity doesn't mean they expect to make that many yet. They could run the line far far slower than what is can actually go to ensure early quality and fix any issues.

There could also be supply issues that can slow down the line.

As for a million reservations, I highly doubt it. There were about 2 million total reservations over the 4 years. That doesn't include people that canceled. Some people got tired of waiting, some bought a different vehicle while waiting and canceled because not everyone can afford to upgrade every few years. It's also extremely likely that a lot of people canceled due to the price changes.

And putting all that aside, reservations can also be for the RWD that they haven't even started orders for or confirmed all the specs. You could go through the entire list of AWD/Beast reservations and then still have a million RWD reservations, it's impossible for us to know the actual numbers.

And even if we knew the reservations, it doesn't matter. It's a $100 refundable deposit. the conversion rate would have to be factored in and that can easily change over time.

 

[cyberwulf]

Well just checked the Tesla website, saying orders will be delivered in 2024 except single motor. Anticipated production capacity for 2024 is 125k units. So much for 1+ million reservations!!

 

[ÆCIII]

I wouldn't try to predict too many trends right now. Factors such as higher interest rates, and depleted finances of would be buyers caused by price increases on everything else over the past three years - may cause some people to decide on waiting a little longer.

Just because someone isn't immediately configuring upon receiving an invite, doesn't mean they won't go ahead and configure sometime later if they feel their time is not optimal right now. I can see a lot of people choosing to wait. Elon Musk also mentioned that higher interest rates will suppress sales which is really not suppressed demand, but actually is suppressed affordability - for anything and not only just a Cybertruck.

There's really no way to determine if or which reservations aren't converting to orders, because there isn't a lot of data on people cancelling their reservation - and why would they? It's only a $100 dollar deposit so it doesn't hurt to sit on a reservation as long as one might need to, especially as awesome as the Cybertruck is proving to be.

I don't think we'll truly have data or know the real demand of the Cybertruck until sometime in late 2025 or after, because with all this economic mess we've had to endure so far, its going to take at least that long for many families to get back on their (financial) feet - but only if fiscal policies are put in place to begin recovery at all.

- ÆCIII

 

[Cybertruck2024]

Well just checked the Tesla website, saying orders will be delivered in 2024 except single motor. Anticipated production capacity for 2024 is 125k units. So much for 1+ million reservations!!

This is actually a great point. If I make a AWD/Beast reservation today, the website is saying I'll get it before 2024 ends. That either needs to be updated, or there's not nearly as much demand.

 

[agordon117]

This is actually a great point. If I make a AWD/Beast reservation today, the website is saying I'll get it before 2024 ends. That either needs to be updated, or there's not nearly as much demand.

1/9 invites also said that delivery if ordered that day would be jan-mar. Zero people who ordered on 1/9 got a january delivery, so it was a lie.

It's just as likely they are saying 2024 because they are in fact delivering vehicles, not because a specific new order would be delivered by 12/31. We just don't know.

 

[Woodrick]

1/9 invites also said that delivery if ordered that day would be jan-mar. Zero people who ordered on 1/9 got a january delivery, so it was a lie.

It's just as likely they are saying 2024 because they are in fact delivering vehicles, not because a specific new order would be delivered by 12/31. We just don't know.

It was not a lie. Is today Jan-Mar? Yes. Still will be for 6 weeks.

 

[agordon117]

It was not a lie. Is today Jan-Mar? Yes. Still will be for 6 weeks.

cool, I'm gonna make a product that will deliver from feb 2024-dec 2050. That way when I deliver it in dec 2050, it wasn't a lie to include feb 2024-nov 2050 in the delivery window.



My point is, including january in the window of possible delivery dates for a 1/9 order, when zero 1/9 orders were delivered in january, is a lie. If one single order from 1/9 had been delivered before 1/31, I would not make the same assertion. They knew, at the time of sending those invites, that zero of those people would get one in january. Just like they know that zero people who ordered this week will get a feb delivery, but they still quoted that for the lead time to make you think there was a chance of getting one in less than 30 days.

 

[Woodrick]

This lifted from Motortrend article, if its true, then IF current production capacity is 125k per year AND Tesla will "soon sell out what it can build in 2024” my math suggests there are not 1 million reservations or only 1 in 8 are converting to orders

The Texas plant currently has the capacity to make 125,000 trucks a year. "I see us ultimately delivering a quarter million trucks a year," Musk said.

Musk has previously said Tesla has 1 million reservations.

Executives declined to say how many orders there are today but said the conversion rate of reservations to orders is encouraging and if it continues,

Tesla will soon sell out all it can build in 2024—whatever that number is.

https://www.motortrend.com/news/affordable-25000-tesla-model-back-on/ (half way down the article)

Motortrend is getting there numbers from the same place that everyone else is. There is no news here.

The "soon sell out" came from the earnings call and most everyone agrees that it was missing context.

And because of that, it is probably not correct to assume that 1 in 8 are converting to orders. There's just not the correct context to assume that.

And if you want to assume that a conversion to an order is a sale. And you want to assume that "soon sale out" is a few weeks. Then you can assume that they will be sold out for the year before completing week one pre-orders.

How would you account for the other 4 years of reservations.

It just doesn't all fit together.

 

[WormtownKris]

Also lost in this silly discussion is the fact that Tesla is currently only offering the premium priced Foundation Series. Many people, like me, passed on the FS offering, but still intend to order a regular ole AWD or CyberBeast once they go to standard edition trucks. We are still a part of the over one million reservations and will be buying a Cyber Truck. It just won't be in 2024 IF they don't flip over to standard series trucks soon.
Further, there are many people in other regions and many people with multiple reservations, who haven't been allowed to order yet. If Hampus in Sweden and Charlie in Australia have RN112 reservations but aren't invited to configure, they have not canceled their reservation, they've just been passed over for now. Fleet guys only ordered 0 or 1 of their intended trucks so far. They did not cancel their other 5 or 11 trucks that they cannot order yet.

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